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Barnsley vs Swansea Odds & Prediction – EFL Promotional Playoff Semifinals Leg 1

Sam Cox

by Sam Cox in Soccer

May 16, 2021 · 10:20 AM PDT

Connor Chamlin, Barnsley
Barnsley's Conor Chamlin, left, jumps for the ball with Chelsea's Kurt Zouma during the English FA Cup fifth round soccer match between Barnsley and Chelsea at the Oakwell Stadium in Barnsley, England,Thursday Feb. 11, 2021. (AP Photo/Dave Thompson, Pool)
  • Barnsley and Swansea meet in the first leg of the EFL Championship playoff semifinals on Monday May 17th
  • Swansea did the league double over Barnsley, winning both matches 2-0
  • Read below for the latest Barnsley vs Swansea odds, betting preview and a pick

The Championship playoffs kick off this weekend. Barnsley takes on Swansea on Monday May 17th. This is the first of a two-legged tie, and books are generally favoring the hosts. DraftKings have Barnsley at +116 straight up.

Recent matchups point to Swansea, with the Welsh club doing the double over Barnsley this term. It’s also 12 matches unbeaten against Barnsley in all competitions, a run which extends back to the League One playoffs in 2006. A lot has changed at both clubs since then though, and the Tykes finished just two points behind the Swans in the league this season.

Both teams come into this match with limited injury concerns. Alex Mowatt should be fit to start for Barnsley despite sitting out the final game of the season, while Swansea’s XI is pretty much set in stone. Daryl Dike is expected to get the start for the hosts.

Barnsley vs Swansea Odds

Matchup Spread Moneyline at DraftKings Total
Barnsley vs Swansea BAR -0.75 (+160) | SWA +0.75 (-205) BAR +116 | SWA +250 | DRAW +215 Ov 2.5 (+135) | Un 2.5 (-175)

Odds as of May 15

Season Of Two Halves

Barnsley’s season can be split distinctly into different parts. They collected 62 of their 78 points after December 1st. Their form from December onwards was good enough to compete for automatic promotion, with Watford accumulating just three more points over that span. After a difficult opening couple of months, the Tykes surged into the top six, and even with some disappointing results late in the season, they go into the playoffs as a team in form.

Swansea’s season was almost the reverse. At the start of December, they were just two points off the summit, but where Barnsley were flying through winter and spring, the Swans dropped off. They collected 30 points from the final 20 matches. That’s the sort of form of a mid-table side, and was good for only ninth in the table over that span.

Barnsley ended the season with two wins in five. Swansea had one win in five. Both long and short-term, the form book points towards the home side on Monday.

Swansea’s Unwanted Streak

Steve Cooper has seen his Swansea team concede first in each of the last five matches. Such a run needs to come to an end if they are to reach the playoff final. With only 56 goals scored this season (the lowest tally in the top nine), the Swans simply do not have the firepower to cope with going behind.

A lot rests on the form and performances of Andre Ayew and Jamal Lowe. The wing duo have scored over half of Swansea’s 56 Championship goals this season. Ayew has only scored two goals since March 9th, and Swansea desperately him to turn that form around. The 31-year-old has masses of big-game experience, which can’t be said about the rest of this Swansea squad.

Nerves Might Hit Barnsley

This has been a fairy tale season for Barnsley. It’s always hard to tell how such circumstances will impact a team.

Barnsley could be hit with serious nerves knowing they are only a couple of matches away from history. Valerien Ismael has worked wonders this season, but preparing his team for this match both tactically and mentally is his greatest challenge thus far.

It wouldn’t be a surprise to see nerves take hold of Barnsley. However, even as betting favorites, they are in a position no one expected, and might be able to relax knowing they remain underdogs to gain promotion.

Barnsley vs Swansea Championship Statistics


5th Position 4th
58 Goals scored 56
47.7% Average possession 50.1%
67 yellows, 3 reds Cards 66 yellows, 1 red
12.1 Shots per match 10.3
50% Shots inside the area 53%

Pick The Hosts

The concept of ‘momentum’ in sport is controversial, but it’s not outlandish to point to form impacting the Championship playoffs. Season-long performances do not help to predict a one-off match of this ilk.

Barnsley have been the far superior team in recent months, and their have got some good results at home of late, including a draw with Norwich just a few days ago.

Swansea have lost three of six on the road. It’s worth backing that poor run to be extended.

Pick: Barnsley moneyline (+116)

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