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Benfica vs Sporting Odds & Prediction – Portugal Primeira Liga Round 33

Josh Ricker

by Josh Ricker in Soccer

May 13, 2021 · 5:52 PM PDT

Benfica vs Sporting
Benfica's Gilberto, left, battles for the ball with Sporting's Joao Mario during the Portuguese League soccer match between Sporting CP and Benfica at the Alvalade stadium in Lisbon, Monday, Feb. 1, 2021. Sporting won 1-0. (AP Photo/Armando Franca)
  • Benfica hosts Sporting in Matchday 33 of Portugal’s Primeira Liga on Saturday, May 15th at 1:00 pm ET
  • With two games left in the Portuguese top flight, Sporting have already clinched first place, marking their first Primeira Liga title since 2001
  • See the odds, our analysis and betting prediction below

After years of Benfica and Porto trading titles, Sporting has finally claimed their trophy in Portugal’s Premeira Liga. However, their season is not quite done yet as they take on third placed Benfica on Saturday afternoon. Benfica, who sit 12 points shy of the champions, could still qualify for Champions League football next season.

Jorge Jesus’ side is only four points behind Porto, so with two wins and some favorable results going against the Dragões, their European dreams remain alive. However, beating Sporting will be no easy task, even at home. In fact, nobody has defeated Sporting Lisbon this season in 32 Primeira Liga matches. Unfortunately for Sporting, this feat has already been accomplished four times in their domestic league.

Benfica vs Sporting Odds

Matchup Spread Moneyline Total at DraftKings
Benfica vs Sporting BEN -0.5 (-110) | SPO +0.5 (-118) BEN -108 | SPO +270 | DRAW +250 Ov 2.5 (+107) | Un 2.5 (-139)

Odds as of May 13

Nonetheless, to have your name amongst the greats in Portuguese football should be enough motivation for Sporting to go out and get three points. Their last loss came all the way back in January when they fell out of the Taca de Portugal. Additionally, they have not conceded a goal in their last four matches, which bring into question the heavy moneyline odds in Benfica’s favor.

Can Benfica Get by the Sporting Defense?

After losing Bruno Fernandes a year and a half ago, many fans probably would have expected Sporting to go downhill. However, they have done exactly the opposite. Pedro Goncalves has stepped up massively in the attack scoring 18 goals this season for Sporting. At the back, Sebastian Coates has been a rock in defense and is a major reason Sporting have only conceded 15 times all year.

One of their many clean sheets this season actually came in the reverse fixture of this matchup back in February. A late finish from Matheus Nunes in the 92nd minute was the only thing to separate these sides on the day. Despite the difference in points, these sides are obviously close in quality. The real question is who is hungrier to win Derby de Lisboa? This match goes beyond being invincible or qualifying for Champions League, it is also about pride in Lisbon.

Benfica vs Sporting Statistics


1.94 Goals per game 1.78
13.8 Shots per game 14.1
59.8% Possession % 56.1%
84.6% Passing % 81.2%

Benfica Favorites Because of Situation

Benfica has really dominated this head-to-head match in the past couple of years. They have won the past three games, outscoring Sporting 9-1. Just a couple of weeks ago, they gave Arsenal two really good games in the Europa League. While they might not have advanced, they proved their talent and hunger to compete in big matches.

The point is that Benfica is a very, very good side, and they have so much to play for in the final two Premeira Liga matches. But, when a team is having one of these special years, everything gets thrown out the window. For a team like Benfica, all it takes is a handful of slipups and mistakes to see yourself out of the title race in a year like this one.

Right now, everything is playing in favor of Sporting and that has to be taken into account. Haris Seferovic is the man to look out for if Benfica are able to generate some sort of attack against their Lisbon rivals. The Swiss forward has 18 goals and seven assists this season, and with the help of Brazilian Everton Soares, could break down the fortified defense of Sporting.

Benfica vs Sporting Best Bet

Overall, the best bet for this match is the Sporting moneyline at +270. This bet in favor of the league champions just has too much potential value to pass up on. In games like this, I always favor the defense and Sporting’s defense is truly immaculate. Of course Benfica has a lot to play for, but unfortunately, I expect Sporting to finish their invincible season and take the three points across town.

Pick: Sporting ML (+270)

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