Best Bets & Expert Picks for PSG vs Monaco, Plus Odds & Injury Reports (Feb 25)

• PSG is positioned to run up the score against a Monaco defense conceding 1.89 goals per match in European play
• Over 3.5 goals offers significant value at -135, supported by recent head-to-head history and a chaotic 3-2 first-leg
• See my expert picks for PSG vs Monaco (handicap, total, goalscorer) plus the latest odds, betting splits, and injury reports

The UEFA Champions League playoff round concludes with a high-voltage all-French clash as Paris Saint-Germain hosts AS Monaco at the Parc des Princes on Wednesday, February 25, at 3:00 pm ET. The hosts enter the second leg holding a precarious 3-2 aggregate lead following a come-from-behind victory at the Stade Louis II, a match that saw the Parisians fire off 30 shots after capitalizing on an Aleksandr Golovin red card.

While Paris Saint-Germain finished the league phase in 11th place, the defending champions remain formidable at home. Monaco is navigating a severe personnel crisis, missing key defensive anchors and starting keeper. With the aggregate score tight but the statistical disparities widening, this matchup offers distinct value in the derivative markets.

GO TO: ODDS || BEST BETS || SPLITS || INJURIES

Paris Saint-Germain vs Monaco Odds

Prediction Markets

PSG vs Monaco

Learn more about Prediction Markets

Kalshi

PSG

77%

Tie

15%

Monaco

10%

Predict

The three-way moneyline at Kalshi offers better prices than traditional sportsbooks on both a PSG win and a 90-minute draw. A PSG win is trading at 77¢, which means a 23¢ profit on every “yes” contract if PSG wins and is equal to a -335 moneyline. The best PSG moneyline price at sportsbooks is currently -350 at BetMGM. Similarly, a draw is trading at 15¢ at Kalshi, which is equal to a +567 moneyline. The best draw price at traditional sportsbooks is +350 (also at BetMGM).

Anyone looking to bet a Monaco win, however, can find a market-best price of +950 at bet365.

Kalshi prices and odds as of 10:43 am ET, February 25. If you’ve already signed-up at Kalshi, claim SBD’s Novig promo code.

The goal total is set aggressively at 3.5, with the over juiced to -135, signaling that oddsmakers anticipate a shootout similar to the first leg.

PSG vs AS Monaco Prediction & Betting Picks

The Parc des Princes provides the backdrop for a match where offensive efficiency is expected to trump defensive solidity. While the moneyline offers minimal value, the spread and total markets expose inefficiencies in how the books are pricing Monaco’s defensive depletion.

Spread Pick: PSG -1.5 (-136 at FanDuel)

Backing the Parisians to win by multiple goals is the most logical play on the board. The statistical chasm between these two sides is wider than the domestic table suggests, particularly when accounting for venue and availability.

Situational Trends and Data:

• Home Dominance: PSG has won five of the last seven meetings against Monaco, including a 5-2 drubbing in November 2023 and a 4-1 victory in February 2025 at this venue.
• Defensive Disparity: Monaco is conceding an average of 1.89 goals per game in this competition (17 goals in 9 matches). This ranks them in the bottom tier of playoff teams.
• xG Differential: In the first leg, PSG generated a wealth of scoring opportunities once they gained a numerical advantage. Even at even strength, Monaco’s defense, missing key personnel like Mohammed Salisu and Eric Dier, lacks the pace to contain PSG’s transition game.

Monaco must chase the game to overturn the aggregate deficit, which historically leaves them exposed. Teams forcing the issue against Luis Enrique’s side at the Parc des Princes frequently concede late goals on the counter.

Total Pick: Over 3.5 Goals (-118 at FanDuel)

The total of 3.5 is high for a standard soccer match but accurately reflects the volatility of this specific matchup. The market is correctly identifying that neither team is built to sit back and defend a low-scoring result.

Statistical Support:

• Combined Defensive Liability: These two teams combine to allow 3.33 goals per game in European play.
• Historical Overs: The average total goals in the last seven H2H meetings is 3.6.
• Game State: Monaco trails on aggregate. An early goal for either side shatters any conservative game plan. If Monaco scores, PSG must respond. If PSG scores, Monaco becomes desperate, leaving gaps for players like Bradley Barcola to exploit.

With referee Istvan Kovacs officiating – an official known for keeping games moving but punishing tactical fouls – the flow should favor attacking transitions. Monaco’s defensive metrics (17 conceded) are the second-worst among analyzed playoff teams. Expect a 3-1 or 4-2 type of scoreline. Bet the over 3.5 at FanDuel.

Anytime Goalscorer Pick: Vitinha (+300 at FanDuel)

While Bradley Barcola and Gonçalo Ramos draw the shortest odds, the mathematical edge lies with PSG’s midfielder Vitinha. He has been the engine of their European campaign and offers substantial value relative to his production.

Metric Breakdown:

• Production: Vitinha leads PSG with 5 goals in 9 UCL matches.
• Opportunity: He takes set pieces and penalties in certain alignments (though he missed one in the first leg, he remains a primary option).
• Pricing Error: At +280 (FanDuel), his implied probability is just 26.3%. However, his shot volume (5 shots in the first leg) and role suggests a probability closer to 35-40%.
• Market Comparison: Barcola is priced around +115, despite having fewer goals in the competition. The payout on Vitinha is nearly triple for a player with equal goal equity in this specific tactical setup.

Public Betting Splits

The betting public is heavily aligned with the sharp money, creating a lopsided market. There is no contrarian edge to be found in the percentages today.

• Moneyline Handle: A staggering 92.5% of the money is on Paris Saint-Germain, with only 5.2% backing the Monaco upset.
• Total Goals Handle: The public is pounding the Over, with 93.2% of the handle on Over 3.5 Goals.
• Analysis: When > 90% of the money is on the favorite and the Over, and the line continues to move in that direction (PSG from -350 to -370), it indicates that both sharps and squares are in agreement. This reinforces the strength of the -1.5 spread and Over 3.5 picks.

The historical data between these Ligue 1 rivals underscores PSG’s dominance, particularly in high-leverage situations at the Parc des Princes. The first leg’s 3-2 result was consistent with a long-term trend of high-scoring affairs.

PSG vs Monaco H2H Stats (Last 7 Matches)

Key Trend Analysis:

• The Over Machine: Matches between these two average 3.6 goals, directly supporting the over 3.5 wager.
• Front-Runners: When PSG scores the first goal at home in this matchup, they have a 92% win rate.
• Possession Dominance: PSG averages nearly 62% possession in H2H meetings. This control limits Monaco’s variance and forces them to rely on low-percentage counter-attacks.

Injury Report: Key Absences Impacting the Lines

The injury report is the single most significant factor driving the line movement toward PSG. AS Monaco arrives in Paris with a depleted squad, while the hosts are relatively healthy.

Monaco (Crucial Absences)

• Lukas Hradecky (GK): OUT. The starting goalkeeper is sidelined with a knee injury. Backup Philipp Köhn, who conceded three goals in the first leg, will start. This is a massive downgrade in shot-stopping and distribution.
• Mohammed Salisu (CB): OUT. A key physical presence in the backline.
• Eric Dier (CB): OUT. His absence removes experience and ball-playing ability from the defense.
• Aleksandr Golovin (CAM): OUT. Suspended following his red card in the first leg. This cripples Monaco’s creative transition play.
• Takumi Minamino (MF): OUT. Another creative outlet missing due to a knee injury.

Paris Saint-Germain

• Ousmane Dembélé (FW): OUT. The winger is out with a calf injury sustained in the first leg. While a loss, PSG has depth in Barcola and Doué.
• Fabian Ruiz (MF): Doubtful. Not a critical starter given the form of Vitinha and Warren Zaïre-Emery.

Betting Implication: The absence of Hradecky, Salisu, and Dier is the primary justification for the PSG Team Total Over and the match Over 3.5. Monaco simply lacks the personnel to keep PSG under 2 or 3 goals.

Sign Up for SBD’s Newsletter Now

Did you want the latest sports betting news, analysis, picks, betting trends, and relevant data straight to your inbox? If so, you’ll want to subscribe to SBD’s newsletter now!