Bosnia & Herzegovina vs Italy Picks, Predictions & How to Watch

• Italy is a -195 moneyline favorite over Bosnia & Herzegovina in World Cup playoff qualifying
• The winner will book a spot in the World Cup alongside Canada, Qatar, and Switzerland in Group B
• See my Bosnia & Herzegovina vs Italy picks, predictions and how to watch this win or go home showdown

The assignment for Italy on Tuesday is simple. Go into hostile territory and get a win, or face the wrath of 60 million people back home. The Italians can earn their first World Cup berth since 2014 with a victory over Bosnia & Herzegovina, and online sportsbooks like their chances. They’ve pegged the Italians as -195 moneyline favorites ahead of this win or go home showdown, with the total sitting at 2.5.

When it comes to this match I believe the biggest value is on under 2.5 goals, so keep reading for the reasons why in my Bosnia & Herzegovina vs Italy picks and predictions, plus see the latest odds and how to watch this contest.

Bosnia & Herzegovina vs Italy Picks & Predictions

• Under 2.5 Goals (-140 at DraftKings)

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Despite not qualifying for the World Cup yet, Italy still boasts the 10th shortest price to win it all in the World Cup odds. The winner of this match will qualify for Group B in the World Cup draw, joining Canada, Qatar and Switzerland.

As if Italian fans are nervous enough, they’ll have to sweat out this game in Bosnia & Herzegovina’s home stadium of Bilino Polje in Zenica. The venue is famous for being cursed for opposing teams, with the home side going undefeated over a 15-game stretch there from 1995-2006.

The atmosphere is going to be hostile and I expect a conservative approach from both sides as they feel each other out. Under Gennaro Gattuso, the Italians have adopted a more defensively sound strategy, deploying a 3-5-2 system, designed to keep the ball out of their own net.

That’s worked relatively well during the qualification process, outside of two lopsided losses to Norway, as Italy has recorded a clean sheet in five of nine matches. It was very effective in their most recent elimination match versus Northern Ireland, where Italy permitted just a single shot on goal in a 2-0 victory.

Italy enters play winners of five of their last six, but I’m concerned with their ability to put up multiple goals on the road, in a venue where the hosts are notoriously stingy.

Bosnia and Herzegovina are a bit more aggressive with a 4-4-2 approach, but they don’t have a significant amount of firepower to threaten a world class team like the Italians. They’ve beaten up on lesser nations during the qualification process, but it’s important to note they didn’t score more than one goal in any of their three matches versus World Cup caliber competition (Austria twice, Wales).

They needed a miracle against Wales last week from 40-year-old Edin Dzeko in the 86th minute to eventually force a shootout (which they won), but we need to see more from the rest of the roster before we can expect them to threaten the Italian’s back end.

Ultimately, the most likely scenario is Italy gets out to a 1-0 lead and then builds a fortress around their net and hang on for a victory. The stakes are too high from them to play with unnecessary aggression, which is exactly how they handed the Northern Irish last week.

Bosnia & Herzegovina vs Italy Odds

As of Monday night, the best place to bet under 2.5 goals is at DraftKings. DK also has the best odds on Bosnia & Herzegovina to pull off the upset at +650, or for this match to be tied after regulation time at +295.

Odds as of March 30. Make sure you use SBD’s exclusive DraftKings promo code to bet on World Cup qualifying.

How to Watch Bosnia & Herzegovina vs Italy

Kickoff for the marquee World Cup playoff qualifying match is set for 1:45 pm ET, 10:45 am PT. American viewers can watch on Fox or stream on Fubo TV, while Amazon Prime will broadcast the game across the UK.