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Bundesliga Over/Under Scoring Props for Lewandowski, Reus, Kramaric & Werner

Gary Gowers

by Gary Gowers in Soccer News

Updated Apr 9, 2020 · 12:17 PM PDT

Robert Lewandowski Bayern
Robert Lewandowski, pictured here at a Bayern training session, is one of four top Bundesliga strikers featured in sportsbooks' over/under goalscoring props. Photo by Rufus46 (Wiki Commons) [CC License]
  • Lewandowski again tipped to be top Bundesliga scorer
  • Sportsbooks open up some over/under scoring props
  • Reus, Kramarić and Werner also in the frame

On the eve of the new Bundesliga season, books have opened up some over/under props around the league’s top goalscorers. We’ll take a closer  look to see if there is any value to be had, with only goals scored in the Bundesliga counting and the players to have played a minimum of ten games

Total Goals Scored 2019/20 – Robert Lewandowski Odds

Goal Total 2019/20 Actual Goals Scored 2018/19  Over Odds  Under Odds
23.5 22 -125 -105

*All odds taken 08/12/19

Lewandowski has topped the Bundesliga scoring charts for four of the last six seasons and now having reached 30-years-of age is probably at the peak of his powers. The stats may suggest the Pole reached his zenith in 2015/16 when he hit the magical 30-goal mark – compared to last season’s 22 – but that was in a Bayern Munich team full of superstars at their own peak, and where goalscoring chances were plentiful.

Whether or not he reaches the 24-goal mark depends on him staying healthy and how effective Bayern can be in the attacking third now they are without Arjen Robben and Franck Ribery – two of their creative sparks.

While Lewandowski will remain Bayern’s go-to striker, the emergence of younger talent and the arrival of Ivan Perišić from Inter Milan may mean less game time.

Our pick: Lewandowski to score under 23.5 goals

Total Goals Scored 2019/20 – Marco Reus Odds

Goal Total 2019/20 Actual Goals Scored 2018/19  Over Odds  Under Odds
16.5 17 +100 -130

Reus’s 17 goals last season were scored in 27 appearances and so his goals per game ratio was up there with the best in the league. It was also his highest tally since his final season at Borussia Monchengladbach in 2011/12 when he scored 18.

But if he keeps healthy this season and gets close to playing 30 Bundesliga games this season, then we consider him well capable of hitting the 20-goal mark.

As ever, much will depend on how well Borussia Dortmund are playing and how successful they are this season, but given we think they can push Bayern all the way, we think Reus can have a really prosperous campaign.

Our pick: Reus to score 17 or more goals (+100)

Total Goals Scored 2019/20 – Andrej Kramarić Odds

Goal Total 2019/20 Actual Goals Scored 2018/19  Over Odds  Under Odds
13.5 17 -140 +110

Kramarić matched Reus goal-for-goal last season, finishing with 17 from his 30 Bundesliga appearances – an impressive return considering Hoffenheim finished the season in a disappointing ninth place. It was the Croat’s best return in his four seasons in German football.

Interestingly, while they finished only halfway in the table, Hoffenheim were the league’s third-highest goalscorers – behind only Bayern and Dortmund – and so Kramarić clearly plays in a team that attacks and creates loads of goalscoring opportunities.

Worth noting too is that the bookies are expecting Hoffenheim to make top six this season, which if it transpires will put Kramarić centre stage, and also Die Kraichgauer’s main summer signings – Skov, Bebou and Adamyan – are all wingers whose main task will be to provide ammunition for the Croat.

For us, books pitched this bet on the low side and we expect Kramarić to smash it.

Our pick: Kramarić to score 14 or more goals (-140)

Total Goals Scored 2019/20 – Timo Werner Odds

Goal Total 2019/20 Actual Goals Scored 2018/19  Over Odds  Under Odds
15.5 16 -115 -115

RB Leipzig’s Werner hit 16 goals from 30 league games last season; a useful return in a team noted for its tough, well-organized defense rather than its free-flowing attacking style. They scored 63 goals from their 34 Bundesliga games.

To have scored 25 goals fewer than the winners Bayern tells the story of a side who don’t create loads of chances and, as a result, to get 16 goals or more again means Werner needs to continue his 1 goal in every 2 games scoring ratio.

If that ratio slips or if he misses some games through injury, then 16 goals may be on the high side but we should also point out he’s been remarkably consistent in terms of his number of appearances, making 30 or more in each of the last six seasons.

This is a tough one to call, as reflected in the odds, but we think he’ll come up just short.

Our pick: Timo Werner to score 15 goals or fewer (-115)

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