Chelsea vs Fluminense Odds, Picks, Predictions & Player Props to Bet

• The EPL’s Chelsea meets Brazil’s Fluminense in the semifinal of the FIFA Club World Cup
• The Blues are heavily favored to advance to Sunday’s final
• See my expert Chelsea vs Fluminense picks and predictions, plus the odds for Tuesday’s game in East Rutherford

Chelsea (3-1-1, +4 GD excluding extra time) meets Fluminense (3-2-0, +5 GD) at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey, at 3:00 pm ET this afternoon with a spot in the FIFA Club World Cup final on the line. The Blues are heavy favorites to, not just advance, but win the game outright in the first 90 minutes.

The table below sets out the Chelsea vs Fluminense odds (moneyline, total, and odds to advance to the final). Under the table, find my Chelsea vs Fluminense prediction and best picks for Tuesday’s interleague clash.

Chelsea vs Fluminense Odds

The longest price on a 90-minute Chelsea victory is currently -160 at BetMGM, which is equals a 61.54% implied win probability. The longest odds on Fluminense winning in regular time are at bet365, where the Brazilians are +500 (16.67%). The best price on a full-time draw (25.97%) is +285 at DraftKings. The odds to advance see Chelsea at -340 (Caesars) or shorter, while Fluminense is as long as +280 at FanDuel.

The default over/under at all books is 2.5 goals, and all books have the under as a slight favorite. Over bettors can get O 2.5 as long as +120 at Caesars, while U 2.5 bettors can find the best price at FanDuel (-132).

Odds as of 10:56 am ET, July 8. Claim the best sportsbook promos to bet on Chelsea vs Fluminense today.

After going 2-0-1 in the group stage – with wins over LAFC (2-0) and Esperance Tunis (3-0) plus a loss to Flamengo (3-1) – Chelsea knocked out Benfica (4-1 a.e.t.) in the round of 16 and Palmeiras (2-1) in the quarterfinals.

Fluminense was 1-2-0 in the group stage – with a win over Japanese club Ulsan HD (4-2) and scoreless draws against Dortmund and Mamelodi – before winning back-to-back games in the knockout stage as underdogs. In the round of 16, they earned a 2-0 win over Inter Milan as a +450 longshot. In the quarters, they repeated the feat with a 2-1 win over Al Hilal as modest +230 ‘dogs.

Fluminense vs Chelsea Picks & Prediction

• Fluminense +0.5 (+130) at bet365
• Under 2.5 goals (-132) at FanDuel
• First half under 0.5 goals (+192) at FanDuel

The Brazilians were big underdogs heading into the tournament and were fortunate to land in a relatively weak group. But they have been full value for their spot in the semifinals.

Their defense has been absolutely impeccable. Fluminense sits second in the entire tournament in Expected Goals Against/Game (0.42). Only reigning Champions League-winners and fellow semifinalists PSG has a better mark (0.36). Yes, they landed in a weak group where Borussia Dortmund was the only European power but their knockout-stage performances solidified their status as legitimate contenders.

Only one other team has held Inter Milan scoreless in the last three months (ten games) and that was PSG in the UCL final. They were somewhat fortunate not to conceded against the Italians, allowing 1.27 xGF. But they finished the 2-0 win with a nearly-identical 1.16 xGF, and Milan was pressing from the third minute, when German Cano scored what would hold up as the winning goal.

Fluminense has some personnel issues heading into Tuesday’s match. Both midfielder Martinelli (one goal) and left back Juan Freytes (one goal) are out due to yellow cards in the win over Al Hilal. But Chelsea is in roughly the same position and the absences should roughly cancel each other out.

Chelsea will be missing striker Liam Delap and center back Levi Colwill due to yellow cards against Palmeiras. Both have started four of the five matches in the CWC. Colwill played the full 90 in three of his matches and 118 minutes out of 120 minutes in the extra-time win over Benfica. He was given a rest in a fairly meaningless game against Tunis. Of all of the absences on Tuesday, Colwill – who is estimated to have a €53.0m value on the transfer market – will likely be felt the most.

Chelsea has been impressive in its own right during the Club World Cup. But they have wildly outperformed the xGF numbers. Chelsea has generated just 4.9 xGF in five matches, yet has 12 goals to show for it. Their defense, meanwhile, has been considerably more lax than Fluminense’s, surrendering five goals and 3.6 xGA.

The Brazilian clubs, as a whole, have performed very respectably in the Club World Cup. All four advanced to the knockout stage with positive goal differentials, and two won their groups. The chasm that many sportsbooks were expected to exist between “Big Five” teams and the rest of the world just hasn’t been there, at least not against the Brazilian sides. I really like the value on Fluminense at least forcing extra time on Tuesday. I also expect the Brazilians to start the game extremely defensively; Chelsea’s ability to put the ball in the net has been on full display throughout the tournament.

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