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Costa Rica vs Mexico Odds & Prediction – CONCACAF World Cup Qualifying

Josh Ricker

by Josh Ricker in Soccer

Sep 5, 2021 · 6:25 AM PDT

Mexican players celebrate goal
Mexico's Henry Josue Martin (9) celebrates with his teammates after he scored his team's second goal against Jamaica during a qualifying soccer match for the FIFA World Cup Qatar 2022, in Mexico City, Thursday, Sept. 2, 2021. (AP Photo/Eduardo Verdugo)
  • Costa Rica hosts Mexico in the CONCACAF World Cup Qualifiers on Sunday, September 5th at 7pm ET
  • This match is both team’s second match of the final round of CONCACAF’s World Cup Qualifiers
  • Get the odds, our analysis and betting prediction below

CONCACAF’s World Cup Qualifiers are officially underway as the first round of matches took place on Thursday of this week. The second round of matches on Sunday is highlighted by Costa Rica vs Mexico in San José. To say that both of these CONCACAF heavyweights are favorites to finish in the top three of this table would be a severe understatement.

In fact, Costa Rica and Mexico have qualified for a combined 13 World Cups. This time around they are both favorites again, however, with 14 games of qualifying in one of football’s craziest confederations, anything can happen.

Costa Rica vs Mexico Odds

Matchup Spread Moneyline Total
Costa Rica vs Mexico CRA +0.5 (-110) | MEX -0.5 (-130) CRA +340 | MEX -125 | DRAW +230 Ov 2.5 (+105) | Un 2.5 (-145)

Odds as of Sep 3rd at DraftKings

Nonetheless, Mexico are the favorites in this match and for good reason. The side, managed by Gerardo Martino, are currently sitting in the ninth spot on FIFA’s World Ranking for men’s football. Despite losing two finals to the United States this summer, Mexico should find themselves back on the right track rather quickly.

As a matter of fact, Mexico was the only team in the first matchday to win their first game. They did so in a 2-1 victory at home against Jamaica. In a bit of a dry first half, the two teams walked in the dressing room at halftime level, with no scores.

But, the game suddenly flipped to a score line of 1-1, 20 minutes after halftime. Mexico put up 27 shots in the game, seven of which were on target, and as the game went on the pressure overwhelmed Jamaica. Inevitably, a Henry Martin goal in the 89th minute was enough to claim three points at home.

Costa Rica’s D Expectedly Good vs Panama

In Costa Rica’s first game, they drew with Panama in a scoreless affair. Luis Fernando Suarez’s team was favorited in the match, but did very little to prove themselves to the competition. They only mustered four shots, not challenging the goalie one time throughout the entire 90 minutes.

Regardless, one redeeming quality about Costa Rica is their disciplined defense. Their back line put on a great showing at the Gold Cup this summer, and with Keylor Navas back in goal, they are extremely stingy when it comes to conceding. With another clean sheet against Panama on Thursday, their confidence in each other will only grow.

Also, the defense, anchored by Franciso Calvo and Oscar Duarte, will be facing a somewhat weakened Mexico attack. Mexico is not quite at full strength due to COVID-based travel restrictions and some minor injuries. They will be without the likes of Hirving Lozano, Raul Jimenez and Hector Herrera again for this match.

With that being said, still having the option of Regelio Funes Mori up top is nothing to shake your head at. The former Argentine international has already scored four goals in eight caps and will most likely be leading the line again against Costa Rica.

Costa Rica vs Mexico CONCACAF Gold Cup Statistics

Costa Rica
VS
Mexico
1.5 Goals per game 1.5
1 Goals conceded per game 0.33
52.5% Possession % 65.5%
7.5 Shots per game 19

Costa Rica Struggles vs Mexico

When it comes to Costa Rica vs Mexico as a head-to-head fixture, it is generally dominated by Mexico. The last Costa Rica victory came all the way back in 2013, coincidentally in a World Cup Qualifier. Since then the sides have played five competitive matches, excluding friendlies. Mexico has won four and drawn one, with an aggregate score line of 5-2.

Most recently, Costa Rica and Mexico met in the CONCACAF Nations league just a few months ago, on June 3rd. This match finished 0-0, and the starting lineups were very similar to the ones I expect both gaffers to put out on Sunday.

Finally, it is the second game of the international break and only the second game of qualifying. These players probably will not be going 100%, and historically it is fair to say that a low score line fits this particular match.

Costa Rica vs Mexico Best Bet

Overall, the best bet for this match is the Costa Rica spread +0.5 with odds of -110. This bet has more value than betting the under on total goals, and I think Costa Rica’s defense will keep this one tight, even if Mexico do sneak in a goal.

Pick: Costa Rica +0.5 (-110)

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