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Croatia vs Spain Odds & Prediction – Euro 2020 Round of 16 June 28

Paul Attfield

by Paul Attfield in Soccer News

Updated Jun 27, 2021 · 7:26 AM PDT

Spain's Alvaro Morata and Jordi Alba celebrating after scoring a goal during a soccer match.
Spain's Alvaro Morata, right, and Spain's Jordi Alba celebrate after scoring their side's first goal during the Euro 2020 soccer championship group E match between Spain and Poland at the La Cartuja stadium in Seville, Spain, Saturday, June 19, 2021. (Lluis Gene/Pool via AP)
  • Pair of group runners-up clash Monday at noon in Copenhagen for a place in the quarter-finals
  • Croatia and Spain meeting for the third consecutive Euros, but for the first time in the knockout stages
  • Read on for match odds, a full preview and a best bet for this round-of-16 game 

After both teams wrapped up their group games last week by scoring a combined eight goals, fans of both Croatia and Spain will be hoping they’ve got some left over for the knockout rounds. For the third straight European Championships, these two teams will lock horns, but for the first time it will be in a straight elimination game.

Spain, the three-time European champion, is undefeated so far and heavily favored to beat the 2018 World Cup runners-up on Monday. But in the most recent meeting between the teams, in November, 2018, Croatia took a 3-2 victory.

Croatia vs Spain Odds

Matchup Spread Moneyline Total
Croatia vs Spain CRO +1.5 (-225) | SPA -1.5 (+185) CRO +575 | SPA -167 |
DRAW +275
Ov 2.5 (+110) | Un 2.5 (-134)

Odds as of June 26 at DraftKings

Spain Rounding Into Form

Spain’s 5-0 victory over Slovakia in its final group game was not only the biggest victory of Euro 2020 so far, it was also the country’s biggest-ever victory in a Euro finals. On top of that, it also ended a pretty frustrating time in front of goal for Spain.

In particular, Spain also diversified their scoring somewhat, with goals from Aymeric Laporte, Ferran Torres and Pablo Sarabia in that game, meaning that main striker Alvaro Morata and left back Jordi Alba are no longer just the only two members of the squad to have scored at tournament finals.

But while goals may have been hard to come by before that game, the team remains tough to beat. The win over Slovakia means that Spain has lost just one of its last 27 internationals, a 1-0 loss to Ukraine last November. The team is unbeaten in 11 games since then.

Spain Spurning Chances

Given the overwhelming amount of possession that Spain enjoyed in its group-stage games against Sweden, Slovakia and Poland, it is a little surprising it only scored six goals.

YouTube video

Spain had a higher Expected Goals total (8.8) than any other side in the European Championship group stage, but only Scotland, with one goal (with an XG of four), underperformed its xG total by more than Spain’s deficit of 2.8.

In particular, Spain’s Gerard Moreno (0 goals from 2.1 xG) and Morata (1 goal from 2.9 xG) underperformed their xG by more than anyone else in the tournament. So maybe the pressure of the knockout rounds get them firing?

Croatia Rolling

After entering its final group game on the verge of elimination, Croatia’s 3-1 win over Scotland to clinch the runners-up spot in Group D behind England ensured it qualified for the knockout round of the Euros for the fourth time. However, it has never progressed past the quarter-final stage, reaching the last eight twice.

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Equally as important though, Croatia’s win last Tuesday was their first win in five games, and just the team’s fifth in its past 16 contests. And the team has proven especially resilient at the European Championships. Its opening game loss against England was just its second loss in 90 minutes over its past 17 Euro games, with 10 wins and five draws over that span.

Croatia vs Spain Key Stats

Croatia
VS
Spain
1-1-1 (2nd in Group D) Record at Euro 2020 1-0-2 (2nd in Group E)
4 Goals For 6
3 Goals Against 1
2.1 xGoals 7.3
4.1 xGoals Against 1.8
DLLDW Form in Last Five Matches DWDDW

Even Rivalry … For The Most Part

The two sides are pretty evenly balanced based on past head-to-head results. In eight all-time meetings, Spain has won four, Croatia three, with one draw. The two have previously met twice at major tournament finals, splitting a pair of group contests in 2012 and 2016.

The two met most recently in the Nations League in 2018, with Croatia taking a 3-2 home decision back in November that year. However, the game prior to that will be one that neither side will soon forget. Spain won 6-0 in Elche, to hand Croatia the worst loss since the modern-day Croatian national team began play in 1994.

Best bet: Spain -1.5 (+185); Over 2.5 (+110)


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