Euro 2020 Qualifiers Matchday 7 Odds & Picks: Saturday, October 12, 2019

Sergio Ramos
Group leaders Spain will be looking to extend their lead at the top of Group F when they face Norway on Saturday. Photo By @MadridstaLoco (Twitter)
  • Group F’s spread plays are interesting, with both Sweden (-2.5, -110) and Romania (-1.5, -126) road favorites against Malta and the Faroe Islands respectively
  • First Scandinavian away test for Spain (-192) sees the group leaders visit fourth-place Norway (+500) in Oslo
  • Group D leaders Ireland (+135) pay a visit to Georgia (+215) in a game with varying levels of importance for the two nations

Euro 2020 Qualifying continues with a slate of eight matches on Saturday, the best of which features Denmark (2-3-0, 2nd in Group D) hosting Switzerland (2-2-0, 3rd in Group D) in a battle of two teams that have already assured themselves of at least a playoff spot via the 2018-19 UEFA Nations League.

That competition makes for an interesting dynamic in UEFA’s straight-up qualification competition for the 2020 Euro, as some teams in groups have already guaranteed at least a playoff — regardless of their actual performance in qualification — based on their Nations League performance.

Group D is a perfect example, as leaders Ireland (3-2-0) sit atop the evenly-contested group with Denmark and Switzerland one and two points back respectively; the latter two have already clinched a playoff berth, while Ireland is dependent on finishing in the qualifying group’s top two. Interesting.

Georgia vs Ireland Odds

Team Spread Moneyline Odds Total
Georgia +0.5 (-115) +215 O 1.5 (-128)
Ireland -0.5 (-105) +135 U 1.5 (+108)
Draw N/A +194 N/A

*All odds taken 10/11/19

Georgia, to put it politely, are not great.

At 1-1-3 — and with their lone win coming against minnow Gibraltar (3-0) — Saturday’s hosts are unlikely to mount much of anything in Tbilisi against the Group D leaders.

But as the low goal total indicates, Ireland’s hosts could be a tough nut to crack: Switzerland managed a 2-0 win in this fixture, while Denmark drew 0-0 against the feisty Georgians. It’s not as though Ireland has overly impressed in attack, averaging 1.2 goals per game including a 2-0 win against the aforementioned group whipping boys Gibraltar.

Expect a defensive affair.

Pick: U 1.5 (+108)

Norway vs Spain Odds

Team Spread Moneyline Odds Total
Norway +1 (-105) +500 O 2.5 (-118)
Spain -1 (-115) -192 U 2.5 (-102)
Draw N/A +295 N/A

There’s no doubt Spain (6-0-0) have been on cruise control thus far in Group F play: La Roja have not dropped points since Roberto Moreno was named manager, and are averaging better than a two-goal win thus far in qualification.

Saturday, however, marks their first trip to Scandinavia in a group that has otherwise been fairly tame as the Spaniards visit Norway (2-3-1).

Longtime Sweden and Iceland manager Lars Lagerback is in charge of the hosts, who have had a middling start to qualifying. Luckily, they already have a playoff berth guaranteed thanks to their first-place effort in the third tier of UEFA’s Nations League last season.

Expect Spain’s talent to show through against an inconsistent Norwegian team.

Pick: Spain (-192)

Faroe Islands vs Romania Odds

Team Spread Moneyline Odds Total
Faroe Islands +1.5 (+106) +875 O 2.5 (-120)
Romania -1.5 (-126) -385 U 2.5 (EVEN)
Draw N/A +460 N/A

Are the Faroe Islands (0-0-6) a footballing powerhouse? No.

Did the Faroe Islands lose to fellow sad sack Malta back in March, and do they sit bottom of Group F? Yes.

But, they may be a value play on Saturday against a Romania (3-1-2) squad.

The Faroes are in the midst of a terrible stretch — six-straight losses and eight of their last 10 — but played to a respectable 2-0 defeat to Norway at home back in June.

It’s also no longer the 1990s, and thus Romania is far from an automatic to qualify for Euro 2020; Cosmin Contra’s team still face Norway (H), Sweden (H) and Spain (A) down the stretch and will need results to qualify.

Also worth considering: Perhaps Saturday’s Nordic hosts will have a little extra defensive resolve with the memory of a 4-1 thumping in Cluj back in March.

Pick: Faroe Islands +1.5 (+106)

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