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Germany vs Portugal Odds & Prediction – UEFA U-21 Championship Finals

Gary Gowers

by Gary Gowers in Soccer

Jun 5, 2021 · 7:00 AM PDT

U21 Final
Germany's Serge Gnabry during the international friendly soccer match between Germany and Denmark at the Tivoli Stadion Tirol in Innsbruck, Austria, Wednesday, June 2, 2021. (Frederico Gambarini/Pool via AP)
  • It is Germany vs Portugal in the final of the UEFA Under-21 Championships  on Sunday, June 6 at 4:00 pm EST
  • Both teams qualified for the final thanks to narrow, one-goal victories in their respective semifinals
  • We preview the game, look at the odds, and offer a best bet below

Germany and Portugal meet in the final of the UEFA Under-21 Championships on Sunday, June 6 at 4:00 pm EST at Stožice Sports Park in Ljubljana, Slovenia. Both sides made it to the final via nerve-shredding, single-goal victories and so it promises to be another close game in Ljubljana; one that may turn on the merest of margins.

We list the odds, preview Germany vs Portugal, and offer below the best bet for this Euro Under-21 final below.

Germany vs Portugal  Under-21  Odds

Matchup Spread Moneyline Total
Germany vs Portugal GER +0.5 (-180) | POR -0.5 (+220) GER +175| DRAW +215 | POR +160 Ov 3.5 (+300) | Un 3.5 (-400)

Odds as of June 4 at DraftKings

Germans on the Trophy Trail Again

Germany’s route to Sunday’s final has not been especially straightforward but their thrilling win over the Dutch on Thursday was a clear sign that, yet again, they have put together a team capable of winning this prestigious trophy.  They were previous winners of this competition in 2009 and 2017, with a team that included Bayern Munich’s Serge Gnabry.

Their journey to Ljubljana began in Wrexham, Wales back in September 2019 with a thumping 5-1 win but two defeats by Belgium in a group that also contained Bosnia & Herzegovina and Moldova meant the Germans did not have it all their own way and were made to work. In the end, three consecutive wins in their final three group games, over Moldova, Bosnia & Herzegovina, and Wales, saw them safely through to the group stages of the finals, which, for the first time ever, were held separately from the knockout phase.

A 3-0 win over the hosts Hungary, on March 24, got their qualifying group off to the best possible start but was followed by a 1-1 draw with the Netherlands, meaning they needed a point in their final group game against Romania. Despite a tricky 90 minutes, they did manage a 0-0 draw and a safe passage to the knockout phase.

Edging Past the Dutch

The Germans’ quarterfinal opponents Denmark lived up to their reputation as one of Europe’s best under-21 teams and took Stefan Kuntz’s team all the way to a penalty shootout after a thrilling 2-2 draw, but two saves from German keeper Finn Dahmen were enough to set up a semifinal date with the Dutch.

After drawing 1-1 with the Netherlands in the group stage, another tight one was expected but the Germans came flying out of the blocks and were 2-0 up inside eight minutes. The Dutch threatened a second-half comeback after they pulled one back on 67 minutes but it was too little, too late and the Germans are now set for their fifth under-21 Euro final.

Germany vs Portugal  Head-to-Head Stats

Germany
VS
Portugal

12 Matches played in UEFA U-21 Championships 15
7 Games won 13
3 Games drawn 0
2 Games lost 1
28 Goals scored 40
209 Goals attempts 268
13 Goal conceded 12

Portugal Under-21s in Fine Form

The Portuguese began their own qualifying campaign, back in September 2019, with an easy 4-0 over Gibraltar and barely looked back. In a group that also featured Belarus, the Netherlands, Norway, and Cyprus, the only blemish on an otherwise perfect record was a 4-2 away defeat by the Dutch. Otherwise, it was plain sailing.

Rui Jorge’s charges also made light work of their qualifying group in the finals, with three wins out of three against Croatia (1-0), England (2-0), and Switzerland (3-0); an ominous record of getting better with each passing game.

Even a two-month gap between the final group game and their quarterfinal against Italy did nothing to disrupt the flow of the Portuguese, who emerged 5-3 winners in a thriller of an encounter that went to extra-time. In the end, it took a Francisco Conceição goal in the 119th-minute to settle the tie and set up a semifinal against Spain.

The semifinal with the Spanish was Portugal’s toughest game of the competition, and for long spells, it was Spain who dominated the ball. But the game was still goalless with ten minutes remaining, and from one of their rare counter-attacks, Portugal secured a place in the final when Jorge Cuenca deflected Fabio Vieira’s low cross into his own net.

Germany U-21 vs Portugal U21 Best Bets

Portugal’s only other final appearances came in 1994 and 2015, but this would be a first title for them, but in their favor is an outstanding record against Germany in under-21 European final tournaments. Three wins out of three – 5-0, 1-0, and 2-1 – will give them a useful psychological boost ahead of Sunday’s final, as will the fact they are the tournament’s top scorers with 40 goals to date.

But never underestimate the Germans, especially when the pressure gauge is on 11. They are past masters – even at under-21 level – at playing tournament soccer and finding a way to win, and it is for that reason that I see value in the +175 for the Germany win. I suspect there will be goals in this too, so also consider the Over 3.5 goals bet at +300.

Pick: Germany to win (175) / Over 3.5 goals (+300) 

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