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Italy vs England Odds & Prediction – UEFA Nations League (Sept 23)

Josh Ricker

by Josh Ricker in Soccer

Sep 22, 2022 · 2:47 PM PDT

Italy vs England
England's Harry Kane, left, shakes hands with England's manager Gareth Southgate as he is substituted during the World Cup 2022 group I qualifying soccer match between England and Hungary at Wembley stadium in London, Tuesday, Oct. 12, 2021. (AP Photo/Kirsty Wigglesworth)
  • Italy hosts England in the fifth Nations League matchday on Friday, September 23rd, at 2:45 pm ET
  • The last two matches between Italy and England have ended in full-time draws, with both landing under 2.5 total goals
  • Get the Italy vs England picks, odds, analysis, and betting prediction below

The Nations League has resumed this week with Italy vs England serving as the marquee matchup on Friday afternoon. England have been horrific in the 2022/23 Nations League, winning only two points from four games.

So far, Gareth Southgate’s side has only netted once, while also losing both games to a daring Hungary side. Now, they square up against their Euro 2020 Final opponents once again as they must avoid defeat to not be relegated from League A.

On the other hand, Italy also finds itself in the bottom half of Group 3. In fairness, every match since the Euro 2020 Final has been tumultuous for this Azzurri side. They will not be competing in the Qatar World Cup this fall, which does add a bit more meaning to Friday’s fixture and their hopes of staying in the top Nations League division.

Italy vs England Odds

Matchup Moneyline Odds
Italy +175
England +150
Draw +200

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Ultimately, this makes for an extremely difficult game to forecast. Italy technically does have something to play for but their players might be more concerned with club football. Secondly, Roberto Mancini is dealing with a plethora of significant injuries. However, England are also tough to decipher at the moment. This is essentially a World Cup warmup, so the energy will be tempered but players will still surely want to impress the gaffer.

Nonetheless, England are the slight moneyline favorites in this match with odds of +150, with Italy right behind at +175. These sides have faced off in six competitive matches with three ending in full-time draws, including the last two. Moreover, England has never beaten Italy in a meaningful match, which you think would favor the hosts.

Over/Under Odds & Props
Additionally, you should also expect a tame match of football in terms of goals. The under on 2.5 total goals sits at -170, which is probably too juicy for me to make a play on. Regardless, their last two head-to-head matches have hit here, and once again effort will play a part in how many goals are scored.

Another bet I have my eye on is “no” for both teams to score with odds of -125. This play actually has decent value considering Italy are without three of their most pivotal playmakers in Marco Veratti, Matteo Politano and Lorenzo Pellegrini. Moreover, England are underperforming their xG by about 1.33 goals per game. This leads me to believe that one of these sides, at least, will be left off of the scoresheet.

A Tryout for England’s Starting XI

While England’s offense stays stagnant, it is the first game of the window, so do not expect an overhauled starting 11. As a matter of fact, I would expect a strong English side, that will closely resemble their World Cup lineup, barring injuries. Gareth Southgate will want to give his lads a real test on Friday, so expect big shifts from the fringe players such as Jude Bellingham, Ben Chilwell and Fikayo Tomori.

Italy vs England Statistics

Italy
VS
England
1.25 Goals per game 0.25
1.57 Expected goals per game 1.58
1.75 Goals allowed per game 1.50
1.82 Expected goals allowed per game 1.28
42.5% Possession % 54.5%
82.0% Passing Accuracy 86.0%
25% Clean Sheet % 25.0%
12.75 Shots per game 12.00

*Stats are from 2022/23 Nations League play.

Additionally, expect England to take advantage of all five subs and get a hard look at the likes of Trent Alexander-Arnold, Ivan Toney, Mason Mount and Bakayo Saka. England’s depth in this sense overpowers Italy. Still, with a tryout feel to it, this game could become discombobulated with players trying to be too direct and selfish. I would lean towards a draw in this one for those reasons.

Italy vs England Projected Lineups and Injuries

Italy Projected Lineup: Donnarumma, Emerson, Bonucci, Bastoni, Di Lorenzo, Jorginho, Barella, Tonali, Grifo, Immobile, Gnoto

Injuries & Absences: Veratti, Politano, Pellegrini

England Projected Lineup: Ramsdale, Trippier, James, Coady, Tomori, Chilwell, Rice, Bellingham, Sterling, Grealish, Kane

Injuries & Absences: Pickford, Phillips, Stones, Walker (questionable), Sancho (unselected), Rashford (unselected)

Italy vs England Prediction

Finally, my best bet for Italy vs England is the “no” for both teams to score at -125. I do not have enough courage to make a moneyline play here, but I have a solid feeling either of these teams could keep a clean sheet at the moment.

Pick: “No” on both teams to score (-125)

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