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Japan vs New Zealand Odds & Prediction – Olympic Men’s Soccer Quarterfinals

Josh Ricker

by Josh Ricker in Soccer

Jul 30, 2021 · 6:53 AM PDT

Japan vs New Zealand
Japan's Daizen Maeda, right, celebrates with Yuki Soma, after scoring his side's 4th goal against France during a men's soccer match at the 2020 Summer Olympics, Wednesday, July 28, 2021, in Yokohama. (AP Photo/Kiichiro Sato)
  • Japan plays New Zealand in the second quarterfinal match at the 2020 Tokyo Olympics on Saturday, July 31st at 5:00 am ET
  • Japan remains as the only men’s side with a perfect record after three games, while their opponents, New Zealand, saw a mixed bag of results in Group B
  • Get the odds, our analysis and betting prediction below

The 2020 Olympic men’s soccer quarterfinals begin this weekend and one of the favorites, Japan, take on underdogs New Zealand. As a brief reminder, the men’s Olympic soccer competition features slightly altered under-23 sides so do not expect all the big names typically on display. With that being said, this game is lining up to be quite the fixture.

Japan completed their three game set in Group A perfectly, winning all three matches and only conceding once. Hajime Moriyasu will be ecstatic with the performances his youthful team has put in already. However, they still have a long way to go if they want to better their fourth place finish nine years ago at the 2012 Summer Olympics in London, England. That road begins on Saturday at the Kashima Soccer Stadium when they take on Chris Wood and New Zealand.

Japan vs New Zealand Odds

Matchup Spread Moneyline Total
Japan vs New Zealand JAP -1.5 (-145) | NZE +1.5 (-115) JAP -350 | NZE +1100 | DRAW +475 Ov 2.5 (-120) | Un 2.5 (+100)

Odds as of July 29 at DraftKings

For the underdogs, not much is expected of them in this match, which is clearly shown in the odds table. Danny Hay’s side barely scarped by the group stage, advancing barely on goal difference.

In fact, their knockout stage road could have been much easier as well if they had not of lied down against Honduras. They were the second best team in that match, but despite this they managed to take the lead twice. Instead of controlling the second half and seeing their way straight into the next round, they let in two goals, leaving the match with no points. Now, they find themselves in a nightmare situation going up against the sure-fire favorites, Japan.

Japan Have Kept Their Foot on the Gas Pedal

Furthermore, in their two fixtures Japan saw out consecutive narrow victories against South Africa and Mexico. As a result, they got the luxury of possibly slowing down a bit in their third group stage match. They had already clinched their spot in the knockouts which means they could give key players some much needed rest.

Moriyasu did choose to rotate the team marginally, replacing a player in three of his four tactical lines. In their final match against France, he decided to bring Ayase Ueda, Reo Hatate and Takehiro Tomiyasu into the starting eleven. Japan then went on to have arguably their best match at the Olympics so far, taking down the French by a score of 4-0.

Four different Japanese players put the ball in the back of the net, and their substitute’s performances put this team’s depth on display. Additionally, a showing like this is exemplary of the mindset of this Japan side. The host country always has a substantial amount of pressure, and to produce a result like that when the pressure is not on proves this side has what it take to go far in this tournament.

Chris Wood’s Experience Key for New Zealand

For New Zealand, this is only their third appearance at the Olympic Games. They have already advanced past the group stage, which marks their best performance and something their team and country should be proud of. Nonetheless, these are professional athletes, who most definitely do not want to settle on just that accomplishment.

Japan vs New Zealand Olympic Statistics

New Zealand
2.33 Goals per game 1
0.33 Goals conceded per game 1
49.33% Possession % 48.0%
11.33 Average shots per game 7.33

The last time they were at the Olympics in 2012, Chris Wood played a massive part. While they did not advance out of the group stages, he scored a goal against Egypt that gave New Zealand a meaningful point. Wood is almost 30 years old and his experience playing in England has made him a prolific striker, and also one that is delightful in the air. His experience and talent will be needed if New Zealand want to get anything out of this quarterfinal against Japan.

Japan vs New Zealand Best Bet

Overall, the best bet for this match is New Zealand to cover +1.5 with odds of -115. In my opinion, Japan did not rotate enough in the last game and I think they might be a little sluggish in this quarterfinal. Their first two wins both only came by a goal, and I could easily see Chris Wood bagging a goal and making this game closer than people expect.

Pick: New Zealand +1.5 (-115)

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