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Juventus vs Napoli Odds & Preview – Italian Super Cup

Sam Cox

by Sam Cox in Soccer

Jan 19, 2021 · 7:18 AM PST

Juventus vs Napoli
Napoli's Lorenzo Insigne holds up the Italian Cup trophy at the end of the final match between Napoli and Juventus, at Rome's Olympic Stadium, Wednesday, June 17, 2020. (AP Photo/Andrew Medichini)
  • Juventus and Napoli meet in the Italian Super Cup on Wednesday, January 20
  • Juve is looking for its ninth Supercoppa Italiana
  • Get the latest odds, betting preview and a pick below

The Italian Super Cup takes place on Wednesday, January 20, 2021. Serie A champions Juventus take on Coppa Italia winners Napoli in the Supercoppa Italiana – Napoli beat Juventus in a dramatic Coppa Italia final last June. The club from Naples won 4-2 on penalties, denying Juve yet another league and cup double. Juventus vs Napoli will kick-off at 3:00 pm EST.

Juventus have been regulars in the Supercoppa Italiana in recent years. They have lifted the trophy eight times, making them the most successful team since it was introduced in 1988. Napoli has only won the Super Cup twice, the most recent coming with a shootout win over Juve in 2014.

Juventus vs Napoli Odds

Matchup Spread Moneyline Total
Juventus vs Napoli JUV -0.5 (+143) | NAP -0.5 (-175) JUV +140 | NAP +188 | DRAW +235 Ov 2.5 (-127) | Un 2.5 (+104)

All odds taken Jan 19 at DraftKings

In-form Napoli

Juventus fell to Inter last time out. Napoli dismantled Fiorentina on their way to a 6-0 victory. Level on points after 17 league matches apiece, it’s clear there is little to split these two teams. Juventus are experiencing a slump by their standards, losing twice in their last five, but Napoli have not been flawless either with a loss to Spezia just a couple of matches ago.

Both teams have scored plenty this season. Juventus have scored two or more in 70-percent of their matches. Napoli have done so in half of their matches. Defense is where they really excel, however. They are the two top teams in Serie A in expected goals against – Napoli’s 16 conceded in Serie A is the lowest tally in the league (Juventus are third in that category).

Part of the reason for their strong defensive records is the sheer amount of possession both teams have. They rank in the top three in average possession for the season. Napoli and Juventus are first and second respectively in total passes into the final third, too, showing this is not useless ball-hogging in midfield. Only Atalanta and Inter have made more progressive passes, per FBRef.

Similar Teams

The similarity between the two teams could suggest a stalemate. They own good defensive records, and their last meeting was goalless. Prior to the Coppa Italia final, though, both teams scored in the previous four meetings. There was 17 goals across those four matches. Of course, these are different iterations of Napoli and Juventus. Both have experienced managerial changes and the squads have had a significant turnover.

It’s easy to reduce big matches like this to a ‘moment of magic’. Fundamentally, though, this could be a test of which team is most ambitious with the ball. Napoli leads Serie A in progressive carries, and they have an arsenal of willing dribblers who could cause problems for the Juventus midfield and defense.

Juve are without an important attacking player in Paulo Dybala. Victor Osimhen is absent for Napoli, and Dries Mertens probably isn’t fit to start, but that didn’t trouble them at the weekend. Juventus are heavily reliant on Alvaro Morata and Cristiano Ronaldo to perform – it’s always brave to bet against Ronaldo in a game as big as this.

Juventus vs Napoli Serie A Statistics

Juventus
VS
Napoli

5th Position 4th
35 Goals scored 40
57.1% Average possession 56.7%
35 yellows, 5 reds Cards 28 yellows, 2 reds
15.5 Shots per match 18.5
62% Shots inside the area 55%
35.40 Understat expected points 36.98

Value on Napoli

The weekend performances point to a Napoli win. They got the better of Juventus in both of their 2020 meetings, ending a run of three consecutive defeats. Juve’s suffocating grasp on Italian football has weakened – they are now firmly in the pack of contending teams, and aside from reputation, they do not look like a better team than Napoli.

This fierce rivalry between two of Italy’s great clubs enters into yet another chapter on Wednesday. COVID-19 and injury absences have hit Juventus hard, but they have the depth to cope with such losses. Napoli are weaker without Osimhen and potentially Mertens, but they present the superior betting value on the +188 moneyline to win in regulation.

Some will be tempted to play it safer and back Napoli to win the trophy at +110 instead by any method.

Pick: Napoli moneyline (+188)

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