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La Liga Matchday 15 Odds & Picks: Good Week for Totals in Spain

Real Betis
Real Betis are +163 as they look to build off a 2-1 win against Valencia last weekend with a trip to Mallorca this week. Photo from @RealBetis_en (Twitter).
  • After hitting the “Over” in one of our plays last week, Celta Vigo (-130) look to build on last week’s 3-1 win this Friday when they host Valladolid (+328) in a key relegation zone battle
  • Also towards the bottom of the league table, Mallorca (+161) host Real Betis (+163) in a 17th-vs-15th matchup that is clearly too tight for most bookmakers to call
  • Matchday 15 winds down with a mammoth matchup on Sunday, as 4th-place Atletico Madrid (+172) hosts La Liga-leading Barcelona (+162) with all sorts of implications at the top of the table

It’s Matchday 15 in Spain’s La Liga and we’re breaking down some best bets from some of the weekend’s most exciting matches.

Celta Vigo vs Valladolid Odds

Team Spread Moneyline Odds Total
Celta Vigo -0.5, -1 (+101) -130 O 2.5 (-108)
Valladolid +0.5, +1 (-121)   +328 U 2.5 (-112)
Draw N/A +253 N/A

All odds taken Nov. 28

Life moves pretty fast — just ask Celta Vigo (3-3-8) supporters.

A quality 3-1 road win at Villarreal last week has propelled Vigo within reaching distance of escape from the relegation zone despite an ugly record; Friday’s contest will be the first at the club’s Balaidos home stadium for new manager Oscar Garcia — Fran Escriba’s replacement following an awful start to the season.

Last week’s win was Vigo’s first of the season away from home, and the club’s first points away from Balaidos since mid September.

Valladolid (4-5-5) sit five points clear of Friday’s hosts. but have been unspectacular in recent weeks en route to two losses (3-0 at Alaves and 1-0 vs. Sevilla).

Veteran Rafinha is expected back in the Vigo lineup for Friday’s clash.

Surveying recent trends on total goals, both Celta and Valladolid have been over in three of their last four respective league games — food for thought.

Pick: Over 2.5 (-108)

Mallorca vs Real Betis Odds

Team Spread Moneyline Odds Total
Mallorca pk (-109) +161 O 2.5 (-102)
Real Betis pk (-111)   +163 U 2.5 (-118)
Draw N/A +218 N/A

Soccer lines truly do not come closer than that of Matchday 15’s Mallorca-Real Betis meeting, with Saturday’s hosts at +161 and their underachieving visitors coming in at +163.

Comparing Mallorca (4-2-8) and Betis (4-4-6) is an exercise in understanding what an odd year it’s been in Spanish soccer.

On the one hand, Mallorca is newly promoted, retaining a significant chunk of last year’s second-division squad and knowingly in for a relegation battle in 2019-20.

On the other, Betis, who spent nearly 50M euro on the duo of Nabil Fekir and Borja Iglesias with illusions of European football, and now share the bottom half of the table with the decidedly non-European likes of Valladolid (above them in 14th) and Eibar (below them in 16th).

Mallorca has done what was expected of it, and then some. Vicente Moreno’s group has clawed its way to four victories in its first 14 games — more than the three teams below them in the drop zone — and competed. Betis has not.

Despite that, the verdiblancos‘ top-half talent will shine through at some point. History in Spain tells us that it likely has to, and last week’s 2-1 Betis win over Valencia might be the start of a shifting tide.

Pick: Real Betis (+163)

Hedge:  Draw (+218)

Using the Vigo total and one of those two as anchors, consider these to round out a three-leg parlay:

Parlay Plays

Sevilla (-185) vs. Leganes: Julen Lopetegui’s Sevilla is just a single point out of first, while Leganes is dead-last with a single win through 14 games. While the latter has been more competitive of late, expect Sevilla’s quality to shine at home.

Over 2.5 (-118) in Atletico vs. Barcelona: With this much firepower on the pitch in a top-four clash, it’s hard to envision a world where this game features less than three goals — though their last four meetings have come in “Under” the total. Time for the offensive talent to show out.

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