Liga NOS Matchday 20 Picks & Odds: Benfica, Porto Square Off in Marquee Matchup

Porto
Can Porto pull it off at home against Benfica and reignite the title race? Photo by @fcporto (Instagram)
  • The title is essentially on the line as league leaders Benfica (+186) visit Porto (+144) with an eye on extending their seven-point lead atop the Liga NOS table
  • Vitoria Setubal (+235) will look to bounce back from a comprehensive 4-0 home defeat against Porto last week as they travel to Moreirense (+116)
  • The Over (+108) could be a factor as last-place Aves (+210) host surging Rio Ave (+129)

The biggest game of the ‘back nine’ of the Liga NOS season goes this Saturday at Porto’s Estadio do Dragao.

Will the hosts reignite the title race, or will Benfica make it a near-insurmountable 10-point lead atop the Liga table?

Liga NOS Matchday 20 Odds

Team Spread Moneyline Odds at BetOnline Total
Pacos Ferreira pk, -0.5 (+112) +158 O 2 (+124)
Boavista pk, +0.5 (-132) +200 U 2 (-144)
Draw N/A +179 N/A
Team Spread Moneyline Odds at BetOnline Total
Belenenses pk (-129) +150 O 2, 2.5 (+102)
Santa Clara pk (+109) +196 U 2, 2.5 (-122)
Draw N/A +192 N/A
Team Spread Moneyline Odds at BetOnline Total
Famalicao pk, +0.5 (-122) +199 O 2.5 (-118)
Vit. Guimaraes pk, -0.5 (+102) +135 U 2.5 (-102)
Draw N/A +215 N/A
Team Spread Moneyline Odds at BetOnline Total
Sporting Braga -1, 1.5 (-119) -278 O  2.5 (-120)
Gil Vicente +1, 1.5 (-101) +660 U 2.5 (+100)
Draw N/A +370 N/A
Team Spread Moneyline Odds at BetOnline Total
FC Porto pk, -0.5 (+109) +144 O 2.5 (+117)
Benfica pk, +0.5 (-129) +186 U 2.5 (-137)
Draw N/A +210 N/A
Team Spread Moneyline Odds at BetOnline Total
Tondela pk, -0.5 (-108) +127 O 2, 2.5 (+109)
Maritimo pk, +0.5 (-112) +220 U 2, 2.5 (-129)
Draw N/A +205 N/A
Team Spread Moneyline Odds at BetOnline Total
Moreirense pk, -0.5 (-120) +116 O 2 (-122)
Vit. Setubal pk,  +0.5 (+100) +235 U 2 (+102)
Draw N/A +215 N/A
Team Spread Moneyline Odds at BetOnline Total
Sporting Lisbon -1, 1.5 (+103) -217 O 2.5, 3 (-111)
Portimonense +1, 1.5 (-123) +520 U 2.5, 3 (-109)
Draw N/A +340 N/A
Team Spread Moneyline Odds at BetOnline Total
Desp. Aves pk, +0.5 (-112) +210 O 2.5 (+108)
Rio Ave pk, -0.5 (-108) +129 U 2.5 (-128)
Draw N/A +210 N/A

All odds taken Feb. 6

Pick 1: Porto vs. Benfica

The match that everyone has circled in Week 20, Porto (15-2-2) host Benfica (18-0-1) with the league title basically on the line.

Benfica’s consistency is mind-blowing: Bruno Lage’s squad has not dropped a single point since a humbling 2-0 defeat to Porto back on August 24.

Porto, to their credit, have won a very respectable 79% of their matches — but disappointing results in Europe and the cup have further soured Sergio Conceicao’s reputation and the club needs a result in a bad way.

Simply put, a Benfica win at the Dragao on Saturday would basically render the last 14 weeks of the season moot barring a spectacular collapse.

It’s worth noting Portugal’s two biggest clubs have swapped wins over their last five, with Porto winning three including the most recent; the road team has also won each of the last three meetings, including a 2-1 Benfica decision in this fixture last season.

Pick: Benfica pk, +0.5 (-129)

Pick 2: Moreirense vs. Vit. Setubal

Setubal (6-7-6) were an early-season favorite of this column for a very different reason than they are now: Once an offensively-challenged team that could be counted upon to hit the “Under”, Setubal is now a different beast under Julio Velazquez.

Prior to last week’s 4-0 shelling at the hands of Porto, they’d won back-to-back games on the road — with clean sheets to boot — and had some fans briefly dreaming of a push for European football next season.

Moreirense (5-6-8) snapped a four-game skid with an emphatic 5-1 win at Gil Vicente last time out but still sit on the outside looking in of the mid-table logjam.

We think Velazquez has rejuvenated Setubal for real, and believe their road form will continue.

Pick: Vit. Setubal pk, +0.5 (+100)

Pick 3: Desp. Aves vs. Rio Ave

After a few long, hard months, Desp. Aves (4-0-15) have played themselves back into having a remote chance of survival: quality wins vs. Portimonense (2-0) and at Maritimo (2-1) have helped caretaker Nuno Santos’ team back to within four points of safety.

Rio Ave (8-5-6) had a three-game winning streak broken by a 2-2 draw last week with Famalicao, but Carlos Carvalhal’s squad is definitely in its best run of form this season.

Aves are coming on, while Rio Ave are making a genuine push for Europe. Which way will the tie go?

We’re not sure, but we do know both squads have hit the “Over” in three of their respective last four — expect fireworks.

Pick: Over 2.5 (+108)

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