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Liga NOS Matchday 7: Tail Benfica, But Steer Clear of Struggling Sporting

Benfica
Benfica are heavy -667 favorites over Setubal this weekend. Photo By @slbenfica (Twitter)
  • Benfica (-667) could offer strong spread play at home against struggling Setubal (+1600) at home
  • Gil Vicente (+235) could be game for a defensive battle in the Azores at Santa Clara (+109)
  • Spiralling Sporting (-175) only marginal favorites away to bottom-table Aves (+460) in a game Monday’s hosts will absolutely feel they can win

It’s Matchday 7 in Portugal’s Liga NOS and we’re breaking down some best bets from some of the weekend’s most exciting matches.

Benfica vs. Setubal Odds

Team Spread Moneyline Odds at BetOnline Total
Benfica -2.5 (+105) -667 O 3 (-112)
Setubal +2.5 (-125) +1600 U 3 (-108)
Draw N/A +560 N/A

*All odds taken 09/27/19

We suggested betting against  Benfica (with the help of the spread) last week, and it paid off as Moreirense +1.5 paid out.

This week the reigning Liga NOS champions factor into our suggestions again, but this time as a team to take with the spread (-2.5).

Aside from surprising newcomers Famalicao, Benfica (5-0-1) have been the class of the league to begin the season; Bruno Lage’s team is scoring more (15 GF) and conceding less (3 GA) than just about anybody.

On the flip side of Saturday’s matchup is Setubal (1-4-1), which has been the most boring team in the Primeira Liga to begin the campaign. With just one goal from their first six matches, they’re extremely unlikely to find the net in the vaunted Estadio da Luz against Portugal’s most historic club.

We also have a feeling Setubal’s defense, which has conceded just four goals, could be in for a shocker against a continental-level team.

Pick: Benfica -2.5 (+105)

Santa Clara vs. Gil Vicente Odds

Team Spread Moneyline Odds at BetOnline Total
Santa Clara -0.5 (-122) +109 O 2 (-125)
Gil Vicente +0.5 (+102) +235 U 2 (+105)
Draw N/A +220 N/A

An intriguing mid-table contest, Sunday’s Santa Clara-Gil Vicente showdown pits two clubs hungry for points against each other in the Azores.

Santa Clara (2-2-2) is off to a respectable start off the back of last year’s club-record 10th-place finish, and acquitted itself well in back-to-back away defeats against exponentially larger club Porto (2-0, 1-0) over the past week.

Gil Vicente (1-3-2) has not won since Matchday 1’s stunning upset of Porto, and Vitor Oliveira’s squad has managed just a single goal in the five matches since.

These are not goal-happy teams, and both will be looking to take points; if Gil Vicente can come out sturdy at the back, this has every chance of being a low-scoring/one-goal affair.

Pick: Under 2 (+105) or Gil Vicente +0.5 (+102)

Aves vs. Sporting Odds

Team Spread Moneyline Odds at BetOnline Total
Aves +1 (-119) +460 O 2.5 (-120)
Sporting -1 (-101) -175 U 2.5 (+100)
Draw N/A +280 N/A

Sporting’s nightmare run continued mid-week with a 2-1 home defeat against Rio Ave in cup action, and it’s clear the Lions are in free fall.

Losses in four of their last five across all competitions have put the team (2-2-2) behind the eight-ball in the UEFA Europa League and Taça da Liga, as well as dropped them to eight points off the top in the league.

Aves (1-0-5), meanwhile, have been playing rollicking football but not getting results; they’ve scored more (9 GF) than any other bottom-half team, and conceded a whopping 18 — five more than any other team in the division.

They’ve lost four straight, but also could be due against a Sporting team in shambles.

Safe Pick: O 2.5 (-120)

Risky Pick: Aves +1 (-119)

Bonus Parlay Play:  Benfica, Gil Vicente +0.5, Aves +1 (+327)

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