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Liverpool vs Chelsea: Odds, Preview, and Pick

Don Aguero

by Don Aguero in Soccer News

Updated Jan 17, 2018 · 9:38 AM PST

Photo credit: FootballCoin (Vimeo) CC License

Liverpool (+125) vs Chelsea (+260), Draw (+260)

Liverpool (6-4-2, 22 points) host Chelsea (8-1-3, 25 points) this Saturday (November 25th) for what could be one of the more memorable games of the season. The two sides have been a joy to watch in recent weeks, but both are also struggling with some serious issues. The Blues will be stretched a little thin after returning from a midweek Champions League match in Azerbaijan, while the Reds are still playing with a defense you would expect from a bottom-table club.

Recent Record and Form

Both clubs are in good form at the moment. Chelsea have won their last four league matches, which includes a momentous 1-0 victory over Manchester United. Meanwhile, Liverpool are undefeated in their last five games across all competitions, netting a whopping 16 goals along the way. When it comes to league games, the Reds are on an impressive three-game winning streak. However, it’s not all sunshine and roses for Chelsea and Liverpool.

Against the top-table clubs, Liverpool hasn’t performed too well. They lost 4-1 to Spurs last month, and were crushed 5-0 by Manchester City earlier in the season. Though Liverpool have managed to keep a clean sheet in seven of their last eight home matches, their defense is by far the worst of the Big Five.

Chelsea recently imploded against Roma in the Champions League, losing 3-0, and Conte has blamed the performance on the team’s busy schedule, an ongoing complaint for the Chelsea manager.

As long as Chelsea remains in the Champions League, the packed schedule will continue to be a strain on the squad. Lacking depth in his lineup, Conte is forced to wear his players out and place them at serious risk of injury. The Blues make the arduous trek to Azerbaijan on Wednesday to take on Qarabağ for a Champions League match, where a win would guarantee them a spot in the knockout stages. Even though they demolished Qarabağ 6-0 in their first meeting, Conte is refusing to underestimate the Azerbaijani champs and will start his best eleven.

This could backfire spectacularly for Conte on Saturday. Eden Hazard is in great form at the moment and seems to have recovered well from the nagging ankle injury that haunted him all last season. Losing him again would be a devastating blow, and they run the risk of exactly that if they keep overplaying him.

Home-Away Record

While their record away (2-2-2) has been quite bad, Liverpool have yet to lose a league game at Anfield this season (5-2-0). This includes a huge 4-0 win over Arsenal and a 0-0 draw against Man United.

Chelsea have been the opposite. At Stamford Bridge, they’ve been mediocre (3-1-2). But on the road they’ve been almost unbeatable (5-0-1). Apart from their embarrassing loss against Crystal Palace, who hadn’t won a single league match or even scored a single goal up until that point, they boast a perfect away record.

Pick: Chelsea (+260)

With Eden Hazard back in form and Álvaro Morata tearing it up in the Premier League, Chelsea have enough attacking talent to severely punish Liverpool for their defensive vulnerabilities. Their back three — César Azpilicueta, David Luiz, and Antonio Rüdiger — is well-equipped to handle Liverpool’s pacey attack and should be able to hold steady. The same definitely can’t be said of Liverpool’s backline. While Conte’s tack of running his stars into the ground is dangerous long-term, it shouldn’t impact this Saturday’s match. 

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