Liverpool vs Chelsea Odds & Prediction – EPL March 4
- Liverpool and Chelsea matchup on Thursday, March 4th, 2021
- Only one point separates the two teams as the race for a top-four finish heats up
- Get the latest Liverpool vs Chelsea odds, betting preview and a pick below
Hopes of title contention faded quickly for Liverpool and Chelsea. This Liverpool vs Chelsea match on Thursday, March 4 at 3:15 pm EST is a pivotal moment in the race for Champions League places next season, but neither can dream of getting close to Manchester City at the Premier League summit.
West Ham aren’t playing in midweek, meaning one of these teams will return to the top four whatever the result. Chelsea come into this on a seven-match unbeaten run, while Liverpool ended a losing streak with a win over Sheffield United at the weekend.
Liverpool vs Chelsea Odds
| Matchup | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Liverpool vs Chelsea | LIV +0.5 (-265) | CHE -0.5 (+215) | LIV +123 | CHE +215 | DRAW +255 | Ov 2.5 (-129) | Un 2.5 (+104) |
All odds taken Mar 3 at DraftKings
Mammoth Injury Troubles
A lot has been made of Liverpool’s injury crisis. It’s understandable, too, given the number of first teamers they have been missing. Alisson and Fabinho could return for this match, which would reinforce the shaky defense and bring some much needed experience alongside Ozan Kabak.
Jordan Henderson, Diogo Jota, Virgil van Dijk, Joe Gomez and Joel Matip remain sidelined, however, and Curtis Jones is in line to retain his midfield place.
Liverpool's injuries at the back:
▪️1st-choice CB
▪️2nd-choice CB
▪️3rd-choice CB
▪️1st-choice CDM, playing at CB
▪️2nd-choice CDM, playing at CB pic.twitter.com/JIxUjlEK7b— B/R Football (@brfootball) February 26, 2021
Thomas Tuchel’s injury concerns are minor compared to Jurgen Klopp’s, but he faces uncertainty over the fitness of Callum Hudson-Odoi and Thiago Silva. Both trained in the week, though it’s unclear if they will be fit to start. Hudson-Odoi has become an important attacking weapon as a wing-back in Tuchel’s system. Chelsea’s defense looks markedly more secure when Silva plays.
Improved Chelsea Defense
Chelsea have the best defense in the league since Tuchel was hired. The two goals against is reflected in a league-best expected goals against over that span. Taking on Liverpool’s attack will be a real test of Chelsea’s defensive improvement. Liverpool have been dodgy at the back (12 goals conceded in their last seven matches), but they remain one of the league’s best attacking teams. Only Brighton and Manchester City have generated more expected goals than Liverpool since January 26th.
Premier League points won since Tuchel joined Chelsea:
Chelsea: 15
Arsenal: 10
Man United: 10
Tottenham: 6
Liverpool: 6 pic.twitter.com/mb65SoWmAh— ESPN FC (@ESPNFC) February 28, 2021
Chelsea hasn’t given up more than 0.7 xG in a match since their defeat to Leicester in mid-January. Tuchel has prioritized defensive solidity in his early days as Chelsea manager. The back three with ‘two sixes’ has made Chelsea a difficult team to break down, but it has resulted in some tedious matches.
Their clash with Manchester United at the weekend had limited goal-scoring opportunities for either side.
Goals Keep Coming
This, of course, is in contrast with Liverpool. They have given up at least one xG in five of their last seven league matches. Even Sheffield United created a handful of goal-scoring opportunities at the weekend.
𝐍𝐞𝐱𝐭 𝐮𝐩: @ChelseaFC (H) 🔴🔵 pic.twitter.com/eDL5szGaHG
— Liverpool FC (@LFC) March 3, 2021
A limited amount can be read into previous meetings between the two sides. Liverpool are depleted. Chelsea have changed their entire philosophy. Liverpool got a 2-0 win over Chelsea at Stamford Bridge earlier in the campaign, controlling the match throughout, but that encounter was ruined as a spectacle with Andreas Christensen’s red card.
Chelsea were happy to let Liverpool have possession in that game, but it’s unlikely to be the same approach under Tuchel. Chelsea have dominated possession since the change of manager. Liverpool will be comfortable with the Blues tapping the ball around in midfield – it should allow Mo Salah and Sadio Mane to attack in transition. An open game is in Liverpool’s favor.
Liverpool vs Chelsea Premier League Statistics
| 6th | Position | 5th |
| 47 | Goals scored | 41 |
| 60.1% | Average possession | 59.0% |
| 29 yellows, 0 reds | Cards | 35 yellows, 1 red |
| 15.3 | Shots per match | 14.1 |
| 58% | Shots inside the area | 57% |
| 46.63 | Understat expected points | 50.26 |
Top Team Trend
Chelsea’s draw with Manchester United at the weekend continued a recent trend. Avoiding defeat has been the aim of many top half managers this season when facing fellow top-four contenders. It has made for some pretty unentertaining matches.
Tuchel would probably take a draw at Anfield. Another good defensive performance and staying ahead of Liverpool would be a successful Thursday for Chelsea, but it’s not as simple as that against this Liverpool side. Klopp’s team are looking more like his first season or so in charge – there’s a lot of space and plenty of goals.
Chelsea’s defence in the Premier League since Tuchel arrived:
7 games
2 goals conceded
5 clean sheets
45 shots faced
14 shots on target faced1st in every category, apart from clean sheets (2nd). pic.twitter.com/pgVhSNn23j
— LDN (@LDNFootbalI) February 28, 2021
It’s a surprise to see Chelsea as underdogs for this match. Tuchel has transformed them defensively. While Liverpool will still create some chances, there’s no question Chelsea have been playing better than their hosts of late. The Blues to avoid defeat is the pick here.
Pick: Chelsea to win or draw (-150)
Sam Cox is a freelance writer and sports junkie, who has spent the past several years immersed in the online gaming industry. He has worked with 888sport, Oddschecker, and Colossus Bets to name a few. Based in the UK, Sam also runs Franchise Sports with his brother.
