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Liverpool vs Real Madrid Odds & Prediction – Champions League Quarterfinals Leg 2

Sam Cox

by Sam Cox in Soccer

Apr 13, 2021 · 7:12 AM PDT

Liverpool vs Real Madrid
Real Madrid's Karim Benzema celebrates after scoring the opening goal past Barcelona's goalkeeper Marc-Andre ter Stegen, background, during the Spanish La Liga soccer match between Real Madrid and FC Barcelona at the Alfredo di Stefano stadium in Madrid, Spain, Saturday, April 10, 2021. Benzema scored once in Real Madrid's 2-1 victory. (AP Photo/Manu Fernandez)
  • Liverpool and Real Madrid play the second leg of their Champions League quarterfinal tie on April 14th
  • Real Madrid won the first leg 3-1 to put themselves in a commanding position
  • Read below for the latest Liverpool vs Real Madrid odds, betting preview and a pick

Eight days after the first leg, Liverpool vs Real Madrid meet at Anfield with a place in the last four of the Champions League on the line. Real Madrid is -455 favorites to progress after winning 3-1 in Spain.

Liverpool are favored to get a positive result on the night, however. Priced at -106, Jurgen Klopp’s team have endured some struggles at Anfield this season, but their win over Aston Villa at the weekend makes it consecutive wins at Merseyside for the reigning Premier League champions. It was their first home Premier League win since December.

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The winner of this tie will likely face Chelsea in the semifinals. Real Madrid are currently joint-third favorites to win the competition with DraftKings at +500.

Liverpool vs Real Madrid Champions League Odds

Matchup Spread Moneyline Total at DraftKings
Liverpool vs Real Madrid LIV -0.5 (-106) | RMA +0.5 (-113) LIV -106 | RMA +250 | DRAW +300 Ov 2.5 (-190) | Un 2.5 (+150)

Odds as of Apr 13

Significant Absentees

Much has been written about Liverpool’s injuries throughout this season. They are not the only team missing key men at this stage of the season, though. Real Madrid are without first-choice center-backs Sergio Ramos (knee and COVID-19) and Raphael Varane (COVID-19). Daniel Carvajal and Eden Hazard are not available either, and Lucas Vazquez left El Clásico in the first half with an injury.

Neither team is close to full strength. Virgil van Dijk, Joe Gomez, Joel Matip and Jordan Henderson remain on the sidelines for Liverpool, meaning Ozan Kabak and Nat Phillips will continue at the heart of the defense. Champions League hero Divock Origi is a doubt, as is young midfielder Curtis Jones. Thiago Alcantara is expected to come into the XI to replace Naby Keita.

The fragility of this Liverpool defense was repeatedly exposed by Real in the first leg. With Casemiro, Luka Modric and Toni Kroos likely to control the middle third once again, Marco Asensio, Karim Benzema and Vinicius Junior will have freedom. The Vinicius versus Trent Alexander-Arnold matchup will be crucial, as it was in the first leg.

Real Hit Form

Real Madrid have a knack for winning matches they need to. Regardless of positive COVID tests and injuries, Los Blancos has found a way to grind out wins over the last few seasons. It’s 13 matches unbeaten for Zinedine Zidane’s team with just two draws in that run. A Clásico victory at the weekend has put them in a great position in La Liga’s title race.

Zidane has been able to flip the switch and does it with incredible effectiveness. Averaging 57-percent possession and over 660 passes per Champions League match, Real have again showcased an ability to switch to a counter-attacking team. They let Barcelona dominate the ball. Even with their vastly talented midfield, they are comfortable allowing Liverpool possession.

Combining the tactical alterations from Zidane and a squad with vast amounts of big-game experience makes Real a difficult opponent. They might be missing key players, but they keep finding a way.

Liverpool vs Real Madrid Champions League Statistics

Liverpool
VS
Real Madrid

15 Goals 18
10.6 Shots taken per 90 15.7
538.2 Passes per 90 661.3
15 yellows, 0 reds Cards 14 yellows, 0 reds
61% Shots inside the area 57%

Real Get It Done

There’s no value backing Real to progress at -455. Given how comprehensively they won the first leg, though, the moneyline looks very good value. Liverpool will be forced to chase the game from the first whistle, which will give Benzema and co the ideal opportunity to pick them off.

While there’s been some defensive improvement of late, with three clean sheets in their last five matches, nothing from the first leg suggested Liverpool can keep this Real Madrid attack quiet.

Real have won eight of their last 13 away matches in all competitions, and have recorded important victories on the road against Atalanta and Inter. They are a good bet to book their place in the last four with another away win.

Pick: Real Madrid Moneyline (+250)


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