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Monaco vs Lille Odds & Prediction – Ligue 1 Matchday 29

Carlos Verde

by Carlos Verde in Soccer News

Mar 13, 2021 · 6:44 AM PST

Lille players celebrate
Lille players celebrate after Jonathan David scored his side's second goal during the French League One soccer match between Lille and Marseille at the Stade Pierre Mauroy stadium in Villeneuve-d'Ascq, France, Wednesday, March 3, 2021. (AP Photo/Michel Spingler)
  • Ligue 1 leader Lille travels to 4th-place Monaco for a massive clash on Sunday (12:05pm ET) 
  • Christophe Galtier’s Lille is in the running for its first domestic title since 2010-11
  • Get a breakdown of the two clubs, Sunday’s matchup odds and a few value picks below

It’s a relative logjam atop Ligue 1 entering the final quarter of the 2020-21 season.

PSG has won the league by double-digit margins in each of the last three seasons, but sits level on points with Lyon (60 pts) and two points behind Lille (62 pts) with 10 matches to play.

Sunday’s Monaco vs Lille contest at the Stade Louis II will be very telling: A win for the visitors would go a long way towards legitimizing Lille’s title ambitions, while a Monaco victory would rekindle the battle for 3rd place — and help PSG potentially reclaim top spot.

It’s a head-to-head matchup that has been dominated by Monaco in recent years, with  the Monégasques holding a 6-1-1 advantage in league meetings dating back to 2016-17.

However, Lille won the reverse fixture, 2-1, at home back on Dec. 6 this season.

Monaco vs Lille Odds

Matchup Spread Moneyline Total
Monaco vs Lille MON pk (-152)  | LIL pk (+123) MON +138 | LIL +215 | DRAW +205 Ov 2.5 (+112) | Un 2.5 (-139)

Odds taken March 13th at DraftKings.

Bookmakers are still tipping PSG — the unfathomable pre-season favorite at -1917 — at around -275 to claim its fourth-straight French league title and eighth in nine years, but Lille (+400) and Lyon (+700) are now being taken seriously as outside-shot contenders after spending most of the season at +1200 or longer odds.

Monaco: Defensively Responsible?

Despite a rollercoaster, high-octane string of results in January which included 14 goals for in a four-game stretch — featuring wins over top-half Montpellier (3-2) and Marseille (3-1) — of consecutive Overs, Monaco has battened down the hatches of late.

Niko Kovac’s side has conceded just once in its last four matches, including a strong 2-0 clean sheet win over PSG on Feb. 21.

Overs were popular in the month of January, though, with 14 goals for in a four-game stretch that included top-half sides Montpellier (3-2) and Marseille (3-1).

Monaco vs Lille Stats

Monaco
VS
Lille
17-4-7 (4th) 2020-21 Ligue 1 18-8-2 (1st)
56 (2.00/game) Goals scored 49 (1.75/game)
38 (1.36/game) Goals conceded 17 (0.61/game)
Wissam Ben Yedder/Kevin Volland (13) Leading Scorer Burak Yilmaz/Jonathan David (9)
L – W – W – D – L Overall Form W – D – W – D – W
9th 2019-20 Finish 4th
11-9-5 H2H Record Since 2007 (W-L-T) 9-11-5

Lille: Pragmatic Pursuit of a Title

The back line has carried the day for Lille to this point, with a league-best defense (17 GA) and 13 wins-to-nil propelling Les Dogues onto the inside track in the title race.

Recent weeks have not been as kind to Galtier’s squad, with draws against bottom-half sides Brest (1-1) and Strasbourg (1-1) narrowing the title race and Ajax dumping the team out of the Europa League (4-2 aggregate).

Monaco vs Lille Best Bets

At -129, betting both teams to score (BTTS) is very attractive, given Monaco’s propensity for high-scoring affairs against top-five teams — 75% of matches against top-five teams have hit Over 2.5 and BTTS — and Lille’s recent track record (4-out-of-5 recent matches w/BTTS).

Prior to a 1-0 loss to Strasbourg on March 3, Monaco was on an incredible 10-2-0 unbeaten run — which is why Lille Draw No Bet (DNB) is available at plus-money, even though the latter has won five straight on the road and conceded just once in that span.

We like Lille to solidify its title chances at Monaco on Sunday with a win, but the DNB protection is too tasty to pass up. Additionally, the BTTS seems like a safe play for this clash between France’s 3rd- and 4th-best attacking teams.

Pick: BTTS (-129), Lille DNB (+123)

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