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Napoli vs Lazio Odds & Prediction – Serie A Round 14

Josh Ricker

by Josh Ricker in Soccer News

Updated Nov 27, 2021 · 1:56 PM PST

Napoli's Piotr Zielinski celebrating with his teammate after scoring a goal.
Napoli's Piotr Zielinski, right, celebrates with his teammate Napoli's Andre Anguissa after he scored his side's first goalduring the Serie A soccer match between Inter Milan and Napoli at San Siro Stadium, in Milan, Italy, Sunday, Nov. 21, 2021. (AP Photo/Antonio Calanni)
  • Napoli host Lazio in Serie A’s 14th Matchday on Sunday, November 28th, at 2:45 pm EST
  • Napoli look to avoid their third consecutive loss as they defend their narrow lead atop the Serie A table, while Lazio attempt to climb out of sixth place
  • Get the odds, our analysis, and betting prediction below

This weekend Serie A fans are in for what should be a brilliant match between Napoli and Lazio on Sunday afternoon. League leaders, Napoli, are clinging onto their lead atop the table with just a five point goal differential advantage on second placed AC Milan.

Gli Azzurri are winless in their last two matches in Serie A which makes this fixture against Lazio all the more important. More over, after their loss to Inter Milan last weekend, Napoli were dealt another piece of bad news. Their star striker, Victor Ohsimhen, is going to be sidelined for at least couple of months as he recovers from a devastating facial fracture.

Napoli vs Lazio Odds

Matchup Spread Moneyline Total
Napoli vs Lazio NAP -0.5 (-125) | LAZ +0.5 (+110) NAP -125 | LAZ +350 | DRAW +285 Ov 2.5 (-155) | Un 2.5 (+125)

Odds as of Nov 26th at DraftKings.

That news led to the midweek where Napoli lost yet another match, this time to Spartak Moscow. As Napoli deal with a string of bad results and the blow of losing Osimhen, we could see the tipping point of their season this weekend.

Dries Mertens to Start in Place of Osimhen

Furthermore, Osimhen’s injury just simply cannot be understated. The Nigerian forward has been practically irreplaceable this season, scoring nine goals in the Serie A and Europa League. Additionally, his non-penalty expected goal mark of 0.59 per ninety minutes is in the 95th percentile of all forwards in Europe.

In the last match, Luciano Spalletti played Andrea Petagna as their out-and-out striker. Petagna was not particularly bad on the day, as he mustered up two shots. However, Napoli will probably set up something more ambitious against the likes of Lazio.

One possible setup for Napoli could be a front three of Lorenzo Insigne, Hirving Lozano and Dries Mertens. The Belgian striker only has one start in the Serie A this season, but is a crafty player that likes to hold the ball up.

Regardless, Napoli cannot play in the same style they do with Osimhen if they expect to gain three points against Lazio. Spalletti needs to let Mertens roam free and draw defenders out in a false nine position. If Napoli does that, it will be very challenging to defend.

Can Ciro Immobile Break Down the Napoli Defense?

While Napoli’s attack has been great this year, their defense has been even better. David Ospina and Kalidou Koulibaly should get the majority of the credit as the true anchors of the defense. Nonetheless, previous form goes out the window when you are up against an attacker like Ciro Immobile.

Napoli vs Lazio Serie A Statistics

2.00 Goals per game 1.92
1.75 Expected goals per game (xG) 1.38
0.54 Goals allowed per game 1.62
0.87 Expected goals allowed per game (xGA) 1.50
59.5% Possession % 55.4%
87.8% Passing Accuracy % 87.1%
15.2 Shots per game 11.6

While Immobile had a shaky summer at the Euros, his current form is scintillating. With 13 goals already this season, he is a tough assignment for any defender. What makes him even harder to defend is the variety of goals he is capable of scoring. But, Napoli know this all too well considering he has contributed directly to 10 goals in 16 games against them.

Finally, Lazio have not been held scoreless in Serie A play in back-to-back matches since 2017. As a result, I would favor Immobile to be the one to put the ball in the back of the net for Le Aquile.

Expect a Great Environment that Favors the Hosts

Despite Immobile’s chances of scoring, Napoli is still heavily favored in this match, and rightly so. Napoli have won 12 of their last 16 against Lazio and usually like to put up a crooked number against their Italian neighbors.

The match will also be a special moment for Napoli players and fans. The game will in remembrance of Diego Maradona, who passed away one year ago. Fans have been told to arrive to the ground three hours early to remember the Napoli legend. This will obviously produce an environment that would honestly be hard to replicate anywhere else in football.

Napoli vs Lazio Best Bet

Overall, the best bet for this match is the Napoli moneyline with -125 odds. This bet has solid value given the history between these sides. Again, while Osimhen’s abscence is concerning, using Mertens as his replacement will still give Napoli a great scoring threat.

Pick: Napoli moneyline (-125)

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