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Napoli vs AC Milan Odds & Preview Serie A Round 32

Zlatan Ibrahimovic and Franck Kessie hug
AC Milan have put together a great run of form leading up to their match against Napoli. Photo by @acmilan (Twitter)
  • On Sunday, July 12, Napoli host AC Milan at the Stadio San Paulo, in one of Italy’s best Serie A matchups.
  • Napoli and AC Milan are in sixth and seventh place respectively, meaning this game has major Europa League implications at stake.
  • Currently the favorites are Napoli with a money line of +120 – find out who we like below

The 32nd round of Serie A fixtures are on the table this weekend as Napoli and AC Milan will fight it out at the Stadio San Paulo in Naples. The two historic clubs are separated by two points in the Italian top flight, which makes this game all the more attractive as the season winds down. A loss to Atalanta for Napoli, and a draw against SPAL 2013 for AC Milan represent the only points these two sides have dropped in their last five matches.

AC Milan has probably had the better run of form as Stefano Pioli’s side has managed to defeat Roma, Lazio and Juventus in a short cycle of time. However, Napoli is not a team to mess around with. With European play next season on the line with only seven matches to go, both of these sides will be scrambling for a victory.

Napoli vs AC Milan Odds

Teams Spread Moneyline Total
Napoli pk -½ (-120) +120 Over 2 ½ (-115)
AC Milan pk +½ (+100) +225 Under 2 ½ (-105)
Draw N/A +225 N/A

Odds taken on 7/11/2020.

Keep an Eye on Napoli’s Front Three

One of the largest factors of this game is how well the Napoli front three performs. The usual combination of Lorenzo Insigne, Dries Mertens and Jose Callejon has been deadly the past couple of years. The trio has combined for 34 goal contributions this year, which makes it exciting to see what they can do against an AC Milan defense that has only conceded 39 times in Serie A competition.

In addition, Hirving Lozano is another attacking option for Napoli, as he has made a big impact mostly as a substitute this year. In fact, the last time these two sides played, a Lozano goal to open the game resulted in a 1-1 deadlock. Recent history has nothing to split these sides as well. Two draws and a win for each side makes up all the results these two have shared the past couple of years.

Napoli vs AC Milan Statistics

Napoli
VS
AC Milan

6th (51 Points) Standing in Serie A 7th (49 Points)
1.6 Goals per game 1.4
18.3 Shots per game 16.3
57.4% Average Possession % 53.8%

Will Donnarumma Make the Difference?

There is a lot to say about Napoli and the talent of their squad all the way to the bench. However, AC Milan is a team that might be a little overlooked. Inter have taken them over in the city and they have lost some really good, young talent. But, players who have stayed like Gianluigi Donnarumma have made all the difference, and can do so on Sunday as well.

The goalkeeper is the leader of clean sheets in Italy with 12 and could be favored to get another this weekend. Gianluigi is a young, sharp and keen goaltender that Napoli will have a hard time to break down. On the offensive side, Ante Rebic and Zlatan will be the strike force Milan need to count on. These two players can turn nothing into something and should be watched throughout Sunday’s game.

Best Bet

Finally, the best bet for this match is the AC Milan moneyline win. They are the underdogs, but really undeservedly. Their defense has been better than Napoli’s, and they are on a flyer of great form, coming fresh out of a win against Juventus. The Stadio San Paulo will not have its usual effect, which favors this game even more towards the Milan side. Not to mention, this bet has great value at +225 odds.

My Pick: AC Milan moneyline (+225)

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