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Netherlands Short -125 Favorites to Win Euro 2020 Qualifying Group C; Germany Even-Money

Netherlands are the favorite to qualify out of their group. Photo from Flickr [CC License]
  • Netherlands, Germany, Northern Ireland all on 12 points in Group C
  • Germany and Netherlands are in action on Sunday
  • Check our the odds, our preview, analysis and predictions for this group 

Euro 2020 qualifying Group C is beautifully poised heading into Sunday’s matches. The Netherlands and Germany hold identical records after five matches, with 12 points, 17 goals scored and just six conceded. Northern Ireland join the two giants on 12 points, but have played a match more and scored nine fewer goals.

The top two spots in the group guarantee a place in 2020’s multi-nation European Championship. As the odds suggest, Northern Ireland face an uphill battle to displace either of the current top two. Michael O’Neill’s side have just two matches remaining to add to their current points tally of 12. Those two matches are against the Netherlands and Germany.

Odds to win Group C

Team Odds
Netherlands -125
Germany +100
Northern Ireland +3300

*Odds taken 10/11/19

Favourable fixtures

To stand a chance of winning the group, O’Neill’s men must win both of their remaining matches. Considering they lost 2-0 to Germany in Belfast earlier in the group stage and suffered a cruel 3-1 defeat to Holland a few days ago, that seems unlikely. The +3300 odds are unsurprising.

The Netherlands and Germany have already met twice in the group, playing out two goal-packed thrillers. With both teams still to play Estonia and Belarus – as well as Northern Ireland – the prospect of dropped points is minimal. The meetings with Northern Ireland will likely decide the group winner – it’s worth noting that Holland have to travel to Belfast, while Germany will welcome the side ranked 49th in the world to Frankfurt.

Thursday’s match between the Netherlands and Northern Ireland could give confidence to Germany backers. Ronald Koeman’s side dominated the ball (77% possession) but struggled to create chances in the first half. The second half performance was much better, though the hosts still required three late goals to secure victory. A similar match could see Northern Ireland snatch a point when Koeman takes his team to Belfast on 16th November.

Are Germany Good Value?

Germany have had an up and down time since the World Cup. A dismal Nations League campaign has been followed by a home draw with Serbia and a defeat to the Netherlands in Hamburg. Argentina came from 2-0 down in a friendly on 9th October to secure a draw. Not a huge amount can be read into friendly results, but there have been clear teething problems as Joachim Loew brings in the next generation of German stars.

If the Netherlands do slip up in Belfast, Loew’s side can win the group if they claim the remaining nine points available. Winning all three is probable, even with this young side, but the +100 odds to win Group C are still a bit short. Holland dominated Northern Ireland on Thursday (finished just shy of three xG), relying on them to drop points needs a better price than +100.

Talent Galore

Qualifying has an impact on seeding for Euro 2020 next summer. Whatever the outcome of Group C, the Netherlands and Germany will be right up there with France and England as tournament favourites. Barring major shocks, they should both comfortably qualify, and seeding shouldn’t alter their expectations drastically. It’s an exciting time for both nations – they have more than their fair share of brilliant young talent.

The edge in head-to-head goal difference makes the Netherlands the best value team to win the group. That trip to Northern Ireland will be a real challenge for The Oranje, but Northern Ireland do not pose enough of an attacking threat to really trouble them and Koeman has the attacking talent at his disposal to find a breakthrough.

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