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Netherlands vs Belgium Odds & Picks – UEFA Nations League Matchday 6

Josh Ricker

by Josh Ricker in Soccer News

Sep 24, 2022 · 12:00 PM PDT

Netherlands vs Wales
Netherlands' Steven Bergwijn, second right, is congratulated by teammates after scoring his team's first goal during the World Cup 2022 group G qualifying soccer match between the Netherlands and Norway at De Kuip stadium in Rotterdam, Netherlands, Tuesday, Nov. 16, 2021. (AP Photo/Peter Dejong)
  • The Netherlands hosts Belgium in the sixth and final round of Nations League group play on Sunday, September 25th at 2:45 pm ET
  • In the reverse fixture, the Netherlands thumped Belgium in Brussels, by a score of 4-1
  • Get the Netherlands vs Belgium picks, odds, analysis, and betting prediction below

The Nations League roars on this weekend with the Netherlands vs Belgium being the highlight of Sunday’s slate. Finally, this is the last group stage match for both of these sides in the 2022/23 League A campaign.

Currently, the Netherlands do hold first place with a three-point advantage on their neighbors. Therefore, a win or draw sends Louis van Gaal and company through to the Nations League finals. However, there is an unlikely scenario in which Belgium can steal the group and qualify.

Roberto Martinez’s side would not only need a win, but a significant one. Nations League tiebreakers first defer to head-to-head goal difference which favors the Oranje by three goals. In turn, it would take a monumental comeback for the Belgians to recover, especially considering they have not triumphed in this rivalry since 2012.

Netherlands vs Belgium Odds

Matchup Moneyline Odds
Netherlands +120
Belgium +190
Draw +235

Odds as of September 23rd from Caesars Sportsbook. Use this Caesars Sportsbook code to bet on this Nations League match and receive a unique sign-up bonus.


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Overall, the moneyline odds do slightly favor the Netherlands at +120. At first glance, this seems like a valuable play given their 4-1-0 Nations League record. But, it is not easy to be so confident with this specific match.

As with all Nations League fixtures in this window, do not expect 100% effort; this is a glorified World Cup warmup. Moreover, the Netherlands will be without their two-star midfielders and Memphis Depay up top. This is not to say I favor Belgium, but more so that a moneyline bet is too risky for me.

Over/Under Odds & Last Goal Prop
Regardless, an area where I do see value is the goal market. In fact, the over on 2.5 total goals currents sits at -135. This play is a little juicy, but has hit in 70% of their combined Nations League matches so far. Even with the injuries, both of these sides are loaded with creativity and goal-scoring prowess.

Another bet that relatively coincides with this is Belgium to score the last goal with odds of +140. The Netherlands have conceded three stoppage-time goals in just five Nations League matches this season. Considering the Red Devils could be on the front foot if they need a goal at the end, this seems like a no-brainer.

How Will the Dutch Cope Without Depay

Now, in terms of the match itself, the unbeaten Dutchmen will surely miss Memphis Depay up top. In this run of Nations League matches, the Barcelona forward has picked up 1.45 goals + assists per 90 minutes. Aside from Virgil, he is also one of their most senior talents in terms of experience.

Netherlands vs Belgium Statistics

2.60 Goals per game 2.21
1.79 Expected goals per game 1.96
1.20 Goals allowed per game 1.40
1.17 Expected goals allowed per game 1.31
57.6% Possession % 62.2%
88.8% Passing Accuracy 89.6%
25% Clean Sheet % 25.0%
14.80 Shots per game 14.40

*Stats are from 2022/23 Nations League play.

With that being said, his loss is not totally earth-shattering for the Netherlands. Without Frenkie de Jong and Teun Koopmeiners in the midfield, expect them to rely even more heavily on their wing-backs.

I predict that Tyrell Malacia will come into the side to pair with Denzel Dumfries on the right. Furthermore, Wout Weghorst should also replace Depay as a clear, target man in the attack. With the right delivery, the Oranje should have no problem piling on goal-scoring opportunities against an elderly Belgian defense. Not to mention, Thierry Henry will be holding the reigns of Belgium, taking over for a suspended Martinez.

The point being, if you are looking for a slight favorite, I think the Netherlands are still a solid draw no bet choice (-155). Belgium are probably already looking forward to Qatar in two months, and will not do anything monumental besides nicking a late goal.

Netherlands vs Belgium Projected Lineups and Injuries

Netherlands Projected Lineup: Pasveer, Malacia, Ake, Van Dijk, De Ligt, Dumfries, Berghuis, De Roon, Gakpo, Bergwijn, Weghorst

Injuries & Absences: Wijnaldum, Depay, De Jong, Koopmeiners, Krul

Belgium Projected Lineup: Courtois, Carrasco, Vertonghen, Dendoncker, Alderweireld, Castagne, Witsel, Tielemans, Trossard, De Bruyne, Batshuayi

Injuries & Absences: Lukaku

Netherlands vs Belgium Prediction

All in all, my best bet is still for Belgium to score the last goal of the match with odds of +140. This play has too much value to pass on and fits in perfect with how I see this match playing out.

Pick: Belgium to score last (+140)

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