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Netherlands vs Italy Odds & Prediction – Nations League 3rd Place Game

Gary Gowers

by Gary Gowers in Soccer News

Updated Jun 17, 2023 · 9:00 AM PDT

Euro 2020
Italy's Ciro Immobile celebrates after scoring his side's opening goal during the international friendly soccer match between Italy and Czech Republic in Bologna, Italy, Friday, June 4, 2021. (AP Photo/Antonio Calanni)
  • It’s Netherlands vs Italy in the third-fourth-place playoff of the UEFA Nations League on Sunday, June 18
  • The Netherlands, with home advantage in their favor, start as slight favorites
  • Find our prediction below, where we look at the odds and offer some picks

It’s Netherlands vs Italy in the third-fourth-place playoff of the UEFA Nations League on Sunday, June 18, with kick-off in the De Grolsch Veste stadium in Enschede at 9:00 am ET.

With home advantage, the Dutch would have fancied their chances of qualifying for the final but the experienced and wily Croatians denied them that opportunity. In the other semifinal, another close one, Italy was edged out of a place in the final by Spain after conceding an 88th-minute winner.

We preview our Netherlands vs Italy picks, look at the odds, and offer some analysis, team news, and predictions below.

Netherlands vs Italy Odds

Matchup Moneyline
Netherlands +125
Italy +195
Draw (after 90 mins) +260

The Netherlands start as the bookmakers’ plus money favorites at +125, with an implied win probability of 44%, while Italy are listed at an only slightly more-generous +195, implied at 34%.  The draw after 90 minutes is nicely priced at +260 in the Netherlands vs Italy odds and is implied at 28%.



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Odds from FansDuel Sportsbook on June 14.

Netherlands vs Italy Over/Under and Spread

With the tipping point set at 2.5 goals, the bookies have listed the over at -150 and the under at a more appealing +110 and so, by implication, are anticipating a game with plenty of goals.

Netherlands vs Italy Preview

While the Netherlands’ World Cup ended in disappointment when they lost to the eventual winners Argentina, this looks and feels like a Dutch team that is on the up under Ronald Koeman. Their form prior to the World Cup was also full of promise and in Nations League qualifying, they easily qualified in a group that also included Belgium, Wales, and Poland,

So it would have been amid great disappointment that they missed out on their first major final since 2010 by losing to the Croatians in the semifinal on Wednesday – a Croatian team that is vastly experienced but which is regarded by many pundits as being past its best.

Heartbreak for Koeman’s Men

But it was the pass-masters of the Balkans who dominated the ball and who edged things over the 90 minutes, only for Noa Lang to dramatically level for the Dutch six minutes into injury time. Unfortunately, Koeman’s men were unable to build on the momentum gained from that late leveler.

Two unanswered Croatian goals in extra-time crushed the dreams of the Dutch, and Koeman now has the tricky task of lifting his men for one final push, in what many regard as little more than a consolation prize.

Tough Night for Mancini’s Men

It was a tricky Thursday night for Roberto Mancini’s men in Enschede, who came up against a Spain team determined to put behind them a disappointing Qatar World Cup campaign. Despite the Italians missing out on that tournament altogether, it was the Spanish who responded the better of the two and dominated the game.

The stats made for ugly reading for Mancini’s men who had just 37 percent of possession, who ended the game with a pass accuracy of just 78 percent, and who had just eight shots compared to Spain’s 19.

Late Heartbreak for Italy

To be fair to the Italians, in typical fashion they were able to take the game deep despite not playing well, thanks to some stoic defending, but their resistance was undone in the 88th minute. The patience and persistence of the Spanish was eventually rewarded when Joselu turned in Rodri’s twice-deflected shot from very close range.

Netherlands vs Italy Team Lineups and Injuries

Netherlands Projected Lineup: Bijlow, Dumfries, Van Dijk, Botman, Ake, De Roon, De Jong, Wijnaldum, Bergwijn, Gakpo, Simons.

Injuries & absences: Depay, De Ligt.

Italy Projected Lineup: Donnarumma, Acerbi, Bonucci, Toloi, Spinazzola, Barella, Jorginho, Frattesi, Di Lorenzo, Zanilol, Immobile.

Injuries & absences: Berardi, Pessina.

Netherlands vs Italy Head-to-Head Stats

5-1-0 Nations League qualifying record 3-2-1
14 / 6 Goals for / against 8 / 7
88 / 30 Goal attempts / on target* 80 / 26
55.5 Possession (%)* 43.6
88.5 Passing accuracy (%)* 81.7
WWLLWD Form Guide (all comps) WWLLWL

* Stats from UEFA official stats.

Netherlands vs Italy Prediction

Both teams suffered late blows in their semifinals and much here will depend on which team can lift itself for what is essentially a game that neither wants. On that basis, home advantage could count for the Dutch, with the Enschede crowd driving them on, and so, for me, there is value in the plus-money home win

Netherlands vs Italy Picks: Netherlands to win (+125) / Under 2.5 goals (+110)


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