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Odds Favor Zlatan Ibrahimovic Not Scoring in First Serie A Match With AC Milan; Odds for Total Goals Scored, Matches Played & More

Gary Gowers

by Gary Gowers in Soccer News

Updated Apr 22, 2020 · 9:46 AM PDT

Zlatan - LA Galaxy
Zlatan Ibrahimovic has joined AC Milan until the end of the season. The 38-year-old Swede will return to the Serie A team for his second spell, after being a huge success in LA with Galaxy. Photo By Andy Witchger (Wiki Commons)
  • Zlatan Ibrahimovic is set to make his debut with AC Milan in Serie A in 2020
  • His total goals scored in Italy for the remained of the season has been set at 7.5
  • Will he play more than 16 games this season?

Zlatan Ibrahimovic has joined AC Milan and could play on Monday, January 6, 2020, at 9:00 am EST in their Serie A game with Sampdoria at the San Siro. As a result,  sportsbooks have released a list of props relating to his stay in Milan and we’ve taken a look at each one individually to see if we can spot some value.

Zlatan to Score a Hat-Trick in 2019/20 Odds

Result Odds
No -1500
Yes +600

All odds taken on Jan 1

This one is not as far fetched as it sounds. Even at 38-years-old. Zlatan still looks full of goals and in his recent stint in the MLS he scored an incredible 53 goals in 58 games, including several hat-tricks, and the most goals in a single season for LA Galaxy.

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While Serie A may be more challenging than the MLS in front of the goal, as long as Zlatan stays fit, he has goals in him. It may appear a longshot, but he’s capable of hitting a hat-trick between now and May.

Pick: Zlatan to score a hat-trick (+600)

Odds for Method of Zlatan’s First Goal

Method Odds
Right Foot (no penalty) -120
Penalty +325
Left Foot +500
Header +600
Direct Free Kick +1600

This is a tricky one, given that Zlatan’s a well-acknowledged all-rounder; good with either foot, dominant in the air and nerveless from the penalty spot. The Swede has made a career of scoring all different types of goals, from the spectacular to the sublime to the ridiculous to the tap-in. So, take your pick.

But at 6 feet 5 inches tall, he’s brilliant in the air, always looking to get on the end of crosses, and Milan will look to use this at every given opportunity. At +600 for him to score his first Milan goal with his head, that looks great value.

Pick: Zlatan’s for goal for Milan to be a header (+600)

Odds Zlatan is Sent Off in 2019/20

Sent Off Odds
No -5000
Yes +1000

He’s no angel, that much we do know, and despite his advancing years (in soccer terms), the fire still burns. During his career, he has been shown red on nine occasions, most recently in May 2018 when, playing for LA Galaxy, he “slapped” Montreal Impact’s Michael Petrasso.

Interestingly, during his previous spell with Milan – on loan from Barcelona in 2010/11 and signed on a contract for the following season – he managed to pick up three of his nine red cards, so there’s something about life at the San Siro that gets the Ibrahimovic juices flowing.

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Providing he gets ample game time – and why would Milan sign him if that wasn’t part of the plan – then I can see Zlatan getting in the odd scrape, with his mind now working quicker than his limbs allow.

Pick: Zlatan to get sent off (+1000)

Odds for Total Goals Scored With Milan in 2019/20

Number of Goals Odds
Over 7.5 -150
Under 7.5 +110

Not much value to be had with this one I’m afraid. If Zlatan plays, Zlatan scores, and that’s something that’s remained consistent, from his formative years in Sweden with Malmo through to his recent stint in LA. While the limbs may not work as freely as they did 20 years ago, the mind is every bit as sharp as ever, especially when a goalscoring opportunity arises.

He’s averaged 0.65 goals per game throughout his career and Milan has 21 league games remaining. Do the math.

Pick: Zlatan to score 8 goals or more (-150)

Odds for Total Games Played for Milan in 2019/20

Number of Games Odds
Over 16.5 -150
Under 16.5 +110

Given that Milan has only 21 games to go and Zlatan may not play every single game due to his age, this one could be close. It only needs him to pick up a slight knock – not inconceivable for a 38-year-old –  and he’d miss a few games.

So, for him to play 17 games would be quite the achievement in the circumstances and as his career enters its twilight period human nature will kick in. If he plays one in every two, Milan will consider it worth the short-term deal.

Pick: Zlatan to play 16 games or under for Milan (+110)

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Odds for Total Yellow Cards Received in 2019/20

Number of Yellow Cards Odds
Under 3.5 -160
Over 3.5 +120

Zlatan likes a yellow. There’s no doubt about that. While his career has not been littered with yellow cards for crunching or late challenges as he chases back to help out his defense, he has picked up more than his fair share for confronting referees with his thoughts and the odd late ‘foot in’ as a defender attempts a clearance.

In his 741 games, he has picked up 112 yellow cards, at an average of one card every 6.6 games. If he plays in all of Milan’s remaining 21 league games – unlikely as mentioned above – he will pick up at least three if he continues at his current rate. But he’ll not play in that many games, so it’s fair to assume he’ll not get four or more.

Pick: Zlatan to pick up three or less yellow cards (-160)

Odds What Will Happen First in 2020

Event Odds
Zlatan to Miss a Penalty +150
Zlatan to Score 10 Goals in Serie A +150
Zlatan to Score a Bicycle Kick in Serie A +250
Zlatan to Receive a Red Card +1000
Zlatan to Shave his head +5000
Zlatan to Play for Sweden at the Euros +10000

This is an interesting one. He’s a maverick who thrives on being the center of attention, and so whatever transpires over the next few months, it’ll not be uneventful. He’ll make sure of that. Zlatan doesn’t do low-key, and as his career draws to a close, he won’t be going quietly nor, in all likelihood, gracefully.

On that basis, and on the basis I’ve already predicted he will pick up a red card at some point, the value here is very much with the 10/1 for a red card.

Pick: Zlatan to pick up a red card first (+1000)

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Zlatan to Score in First Series A Appearance

Goal on Debut Odds
No -500
Yes +300

An easy one in my eyes. He’ll be looking to make a statement as early as possible and I consider it perfectly plausible that he will score on debut, even if it’s an appearance as a substitute.

With the ‘Yes’ option in positive territory, this looks a no-brainer in terms of value.

Pick: Zlatan to score on his first Serie A appearance (+300)

Zlatan to Stay at AC Milan Beyond 2019/20

Result Odds
Yes -180
No +140

If the next few months pan out as I expect them to, Stefano Pioli – Milan’s manager – will be sorely tempted to extend Zlatan’s deal. Whether the Swede decides to accept is another matter, particularly given his love of ‘travel’ and sampling football in different leagues around the globe.

Don’t be surprised if his stay in Milan is a brief one and he heads off for a final hurrah in either China or Australia.

Pick: Zlatan not to stay with AC Milan beyond 2019/20 (+140)

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