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Odds to Finish Top 4 in 2019-20 Serie A Season & Inter Milan Favored to Win League Without Juventus

Gary Gowers

by Gary Gowers in Soccer News

Updated Apr 9, 2020 · 2:47 PM PDT

Napoli's Stadio San Paolo
Napoli's Stadio San Paolo has seen a resurgence in recent seasons, with the team runners-up in the 2018/19 Serie A. The big question is, can they close the gap with Juve? Photo by GaeC86 (Wiki Commons) [CC License]
  • Italy’s Serie A kicks off at the weekend
  • Juve again massive favorites
  • Inter second favorites ahead of last season’s runners-up, Napoli

It all kicks off in Italy next Saturday, when champions Juventus go to Parma for the Serie A season opener on August 24, 2019, at 12:00 pm EST. Juve are red-hot favorites yet again, so sportsbooks have opened up odds on the league’s ‘winner’ without the Old Lady,

2019/20 Serie A Props

Team Odds to Win Without Juventus Odds to Finish Top 4
Juventus N/A -10000
Inter +110 -500
Napoli +125 -500
AC Milan +900 +100
Roma +1600 +200
Atalanta +2500 +400
Lazio +2500 +400
Fiorentina +5000 +900
Sampdoria +5000 +1000
Torino +5000 +2000
Bologna +15000 +2500
Sassuolo +15000 +6600
Udinese +15000 +8000
Genoa +25000 +15000
Parma +25000 +15000
Spal +25000 +15000
Cagliari +50000 +25000
Brescia +100000 +50000
Lecce +100000 +50000
Verona +100000 +50000

*Odds taken 08/19/19. 

The table above shows the odds for who will win the league “without Juventus” and favors Inter, who are closely followed by Napoli. It also shows odds for who will finish in the top four (all teams included, plus Juve).

So, I’ll take a look at who is the best bet to win without Juve, who I believe will finish top four and which team offers the most top-four value.

Inter have had a busy summer in the transfer market as they look to bring in players who will help close the gap to Juve and, amongst numerous deals, have finally managed to sign Manchester United’s Romelu Lukaku.

Lukaku Time

The Belgian cost them €64 million and took their summer spending to over €150 million – a genuine signal of intent from a club that has for too long been in the shadows of Juve. Among the other new faces to arrive at the San Siro is Valentino Lazaro from Hertha Berlin, Matteo Politano from Sassuolo, Ionut Radu from Genoa and Nicolo Barrella on loan from Cagliari.

Only time will tell if it has been money well spent but it’s slightly ominous for Inter that there is already talk of Lukaku missing the opening game through injury.

Big Spending AC

City counterparts, AC Milan have also spent big this summer with, to date, six new players arriving for around €100 million. These new faces include the Portuguese striker Rafael Leao from Lille and Ivorian midfielder Franck Kessie from Atalanta, and on paper, they look stronger than last season. A crack at the top two looks a longshot unless the new signings can settle quickly – and I have my doubts – but if they do, they have an outside chance of the ‘without Juve’ title and +900 looks good value.

Sandwiched between the two Milan teams in the betting are last season’s runners-up, Napoli, who are only just behind Inter in the ‘without Juve’ betting. At +125 they don’t offer too much by way of value but the odds are fair given that last season they finished ten points ahead of Atalanta and Inter.

The Naples club has done well in the transfer window so far and in an attempt to close the gap to Juve, they have spent nearly €90 million. Manager Carlo Ancelotti’s biggest purchase to date has been Greek central defender Konstantinos Manolas from Roma for €35 million, with Alex Meret from Udinese and midfielder Eljif Elmas from Fenerbahce also arriving at the San Paolo stadium.

The New Napoli

It’s a once-great club that has re-invented itself and has now emerged from a lull that saw it become one of Italian soccer’s also-rans. But no more. With one of the world’s wiliest managers at their helm, they have given themselves a real chance to close the gap to Juve and at the very least to be the best of the rest.

Roma is another club looking to join the leading pack and have done some good business over the summer, with €98 million having been spent. Among the seven new names who have arrived at the Olympic Stadium are Leonardo Spinnazola, from Juve, Pau Lopez from Real Betis and Bryan Cristnate from Atalanta. They look to have strengthened and are certainly in with a shout of top four.

Busy Schedule For Atalanta

Atalanta was last season’s surprise team and as a result, will be playing Champions League football this season. Relatively modest but sensible summer spending of €33 million may have strengthened them overall but with limited resources, the extra burden of Champions League football may impact on their Serie A form. Top four is a big ask this season.

Roma’s city counterparts, Lazio are the other team in the frame with a realistic shout of the top four and have done some tidy business over the last couple of months with ten new faces. As a result, they too will definitely be in the mix for the top four, but may just lack the quality to make it stick.

My picks: Napoli to win the ‘without Juve’ market +125 / Top four: Juventus, Napoli, Inter and Roma

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