Odds to Win Each Group at the UEFA Nations League

• The UEFA Nations League gets underway on September 3rd
• The league phase will be completed by November 2020 with the finals taking place in 2021
• Get the latest odds, betting discussion and picks ahead of the second edition of the Nations League below

Even with domestic football returning, for a long time it seemed unlikely we would witness international football in 2020. UEFA has found a way to (hopefully) make it work, however, with the second edition of the Nations League beginning on September 3rd.

Portugal are the reigning Nations League champions, but the outright Nations League odds do not fancy them to defend their crown. France are the favorites before a ball is kicked ahead of Belgium, the number one team in the rankings, and Gareth Southgate’s England.

Let’s take a quick run through the four groups, starting with the talent-loaded Netherlands and Group A1.

Group A1 Odds

All odds taken September 2.

The Netherlands’ preparation for the Nations League has been far from ideal. Ronald Koeman left his job to take over as Barcelona manager, leaving Dwight Lodeweges as caretaker manager. How much impact Koeman’s departure has on this Dutch squad remains to be seen and it’s unlikely Koeman’s former assistant Lodeweges will change anything drastically.

Italy, who should be the Netherlands’ nearest challengers, are in a period of transition. They have one of the best strikers in the world in Ciro Immobile, but these matches should be about ushering in a new generation, giving chances to Nicolo Zaniolo and Manuel Locatelli. The Azzurri won all six of their Euro 2020 qualifying matches in 2019, though.

OFFICIAL: 2019-20 European Golden Shoe winner Ciro Immobile signs a new five-year contract with Lazio ✍️ pic.twitter.com/ieKG60mldM

— GOAL (@goal) August 31, 2020

If the Italians can get the better of Bosnia & Herzegovina in their opening match, they will fancy their chances of topping the group. With the experience at the back and goal threat at the top of the pitch, Italy could be a good bet to win this group. The Netherlands might be unsettled by the managerial change – Italy will be ready to take advantage of any weakness.

Pick: Italy (+125)

Group A2 Odds

Belgium and England were drawn together in the 2018 World Cup, and they will duel again in Group A2 of the Nations League. Belgium deserves their status as group favorites despite obvious vulnerabilities at the back. Roberto Martinez’s side is all about the attack, and they do it very well.

In Kevin De Bruyne, they have the best midfielder in the world. Dries Mertens, Eden Hazard and Romelu Lukaku make up the most fearsome front three in men’s international football. They scored goals for fun in Euro 2020 qualifying – their attack should be too much for England, Denmark or Iceland to cope with in the Nations League, too.

NEW: UEFA Nations League projections for all 4 leagues. Italy 🇮🇹, Belgium 🇧🇪, France 🇫🇷, Spain 🇪🇸 are our 4 teams projected to reach the playoffs. #UEFANationsLeague pic.twitter.com/p65efNvZKN

— We Global Football (@We_Global) September 1, 2020

The matchup with England is likely where this group will be decided. England’s midfield options are their weakest spot, which should allow De Bruyne to dominate. Trent Alexander-Arnold trying to deal with Hazard is a major concern for Southgate.

If both teams are at full strength, England and Belgium’s matches should be exciting, end-to-end clashes. The majority of their talent lies in the attacking areas, but Belgium are better equipped to limit England and the impact of De Bruyne cannot be overstated.

Pick: Belgium (+100)

Group A3 Odds

France are favorites to win the tournament, and it’s no surprise to see them so heavily favored to win their group. They meet a solid Portugal team and have a reunion with Croatia (who they beat in the 2018 World Cup final), but they are the far superior team to either on paper. Didier Deschamps has an obscene amount of talent at his disposal. Even with Paul Pogba and Houssem Aouar ruled out of the upcoming fixtures with COVID-19, France are easily strong enough to pick up wins over Croatia and Sweden.

Croatia are not the force they were a couple of years ago. Luka Modric and Ivan Rakitic withdrew from this international break, and if anything, their price is too short at +375.

Portugal are the team who could trouble this France side. They do not have the same amount of depth, but Cristiano Ronaldo still has a knack for snatching a goal out of nowhere. The spine of this team is old, though in Bernardo Silva, Goncalo Guedes and Joao Felix, there’s enough in the final third to create chances for Ronaldo. They are a good bet to take points off the reigning world champions, but they are just as likely to drop points elsewhere.

France got two decent teams in Croatia and Portugal, but the draw was relatively kind to them. They should win this group easily.

Pick: France (-112)

Group A4 Odds

The deepest group of the four, Ukraine’s price is the shortest of any of the outsiders. Both Ukraine and Switzerland will challenge Spain and Germany, but this group is going to come down to the top two teams.

Germany had a disastrous World Cup in 2018 and followed it up with a very disappointing performance in the inaugural Nations League. They were due to be relegated, but a change of format saved them. Joachim Loew remains as coach and they have overhauled the squad. A new era has begun for the German national team with Thomas Muller, Mats Hummels and Mesut Ozil replaced by the next generation of German stars featuring Kai Havertz, Suat Serdar and Jonathan Tah.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2kgVUrrkZgg

Where Germany made drastic alterations, Spain are going through a similar process more gradually. Sergio Ramos, Sergio Busquets and Jesus Navas remain, but there’s a clear move towards younger talent with Dani Olmo, Oscar, Eric Garcia, Ansu Fati and Ferran Torres all named in the squad for the opening Nations League fixtures.

Germany are a bit further along the journey towards a tournament-challenging team. The shambles of the World Cup and the poor results in the Nations League will concern some bettors, but they look a stronger squad than Spain at the moment.

Pick: Germany (+130)