Entering Second Half of Season, Paderborn & Fortuna Dusseldorf Favored for Bundesliga Relegation

Paderborn Stadium
Paderborn fans will be hoping to see Bundesliga soccer in the Benteler-Arena next season but there is plenty of work to do in the second half of the season and they are currently -1000 for the drop. Photo By Sunnysteffen (Wiki Commons)
  • The Bundesliga resumes this weekend after winter break
  • Paderborn already odds-on for relegation
  • Bremen struggling but still in plus money

With the winter break now over and the Bundesliga re-starting this weekend, the top two favorites for relegation are the 18th and 16th placed teams – Paderborn -1000 and Fortuna Dusseldorf -175. Third favorites Werder Bremen – currently in 17th – remain in plus money at +230.

With two teams being automatically relegated and one playing in a relegation playoff, where are the best bets? There’s clearly little value with Paderborn at -1000, but who else will join them and will there be a surprise in the bottom three by the end of the season? We’ll take a look.

Bundesliga Odds 2019/20 Relegation Odds

Team Odds at Bovada
Paderborn -1000
Fortuna Dusseldorf -175
Werder Bremen +230
FSV Mainz +285
FC Koln +450
Union Berlin +700
Augsburg +1200
Hertha Berlin +1200
Eintracht Frankfurt +1400
Sport-Club Freiburg +5000
VfL Wolfsburg +6600
Hoffenheim +10000
Bayer Leverkusen +10000
FC Schalke 04 +10000

Odds taken on Jan. 14

Paderborn Staring Down the Barrel

If the bookies are to be believed, Paderborn are almost gone but, in fairness,  the league table shows otherwise. With 17 games of the season left and being only five points adrift of safety, there is enough here to suggest they can still dig themselves out of this hole, but at -1000 there is little point in betting on it. What they will need is January signing Dennis Sbreny, from Norwich, to score more times than he did in the EPL. It remains a big ask.

As things stand, it’s Werder Bremen who are also in the frame for second automatic relegation spot and who have every reason to be fearful. They currently also sit one from the bottom of the form table and are on a run that has seen them beaten by Paderborn, as well as losing 6-1 away to Bayern Munich and 5-0 at home to Mainz.

Crunch Time For Bremen and Dusseldorf

Werder’s signing of Kevin Vogt on loan from Hoffenheim looks to be one intended to give them greater defensive strength and it’s much needed. They look to be shipping goals for fun at present and are on the verge of heading into freefall. They have a crunch game away at 16th place at Fortuna Dusseldorf at the weekend and if they lose I suspect they’ll no longer be in plus money, so the +230 looks to be offering some decent value.

Dusseldorf are themselves in something of a slide although they did, crucially, pick up a win in the final game before the winter break when they beat Union Berlin 2-1 at home. For them, the break came at the wrong time. While they are yet to make any moves in the winter transfer window, they have made permanent the signing of Polish striker Dawid Kownacki, who has been with them on loan from Sampdoria since the summer. They need him to add to the four goals he’s scored so far and quickly.

Koln With Momentum But Mainz Hitting and Missing

Only just out of the drop zone are FC Koln but unlike those already mentioned, they have momentum on their side having won three on the bounce  – against Leverkusen, Eintracht and Bremen.  Already in this window, they have brought in midfielder Elvis Rexhbejac and striker Mark Uth from Wolfsburg and Schalke respectively, and so have looked to add to a group that had already hit some form. The winter break came at the wrong time for them but if they hit the ground running I can see them pulling clear of the relegation places.

Mainz, while currently a point better off than Koln, has good reason to be fearful of sliding into the drop zone. They have managed to pick up six wins to date but tellingly have yet to draw a single game this season. For them, it has been a famine or feast type of season, with impressive wins, such as the 5-0 away thrashing of Werder Bremen, being interspersed with crushing defeats like the 4-0 home hammering by Borussia Dortmund. Consistency has proved elusive for them and makes for a nerve-racking second half of the season.

Eintracht on Slippery Slope

Mainz are level with Eintracht Frankfurt on 18 points but it’s been a tough season for The Eagles who are on a horrendous run of four defeats and a draw in their last five. Doubly concerning is that their most recent defeat, on the last weekend before the winter break, was against relegation rivals Paderborn. They also have the added distraction of the Europa League, in which they have a round-of-32 tie against Red Bull Salzburg upcoming, so despite being a big club, they are in a difficult situation.

The two Berlin teams plus Augsburg are still not free from trouble but all three should have just enough in the tank to avoid the free-for-all in the final weeks of the season.

In terms of betting, the value looks to be with Werder Bremen but if I were an Eintracht fan I’d be getting slightly nervous.

Pick: 16th Eintracht (+1400), 17th Werder Bremen (+230), 18th Paderborn (-1000) 

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