Picks, Predictions & How to Watch Italy vs Northern Ireland

• Italy is a massive -380 moneyline favorite over Northern Ireland in World Cup playoff qualifying
• The Italians have posted four clean sheets during qualifying so far
• See my picks and predictions for Italy vs Northern Ireland below, plus how to watch this win or go home showdown

Italy’s World Cup life is on the line this afternoon, as they face Northern Ireland in the playoff qualifying round. The winner of this win or go home matchup will advance to another die or die contest on Tuesday, versus either Wales or Bosnia for a spot in the World Cup.

Italy has failed to qualify for the World Cup in each of the past two iterations of the tournament, and a third consecutive failure would likely send the country into complete panic mode. Fortunately for their fans, online sportsbooks expect a comfortable victory.

The Italians are currently sizable moneyline favorites over Northern Ireland, in a match with a 2.5 goal total. I expect Italy to approach this game with extreme caution, and clamp down defensively once they establish a lead. That has me taking the under as my favorite Italy vs Northern Ireland pick, despite the Italians high scoring recent results.

How to Watch Italy vs Northern Ireland

Kickoff for this high-stakes showdown is scheduled for 3:45 pm ET from New Balance Arena, in Bergamo, Italy, with FS2 providing the coverage in America, and BBC Three handling European TV duties.

Despite not yet having qualified for the World Cup, there is still massive support for Italy to win it all. The Italians currently have the 11th-shortest price tag in the World Cup odds at +3000.

Italy vs Northern Ireland Odds

As of Wednesday night, the best place to bet under 2.5 goals is at DraftKings. The sportsbooks is offering the line at even money odds, which is 5 cents better than anywhere else.

If you’re looking to back Northern Ireland, you can get +1200 odds on them to pull off the upset, while a draw is paying +450.

Odds as of March 25. Make sure you use SBD’s exclusive DraftKings promo code to bet on World Cup qualifying.

Italy vs Northern Ireland Picks & Predictions

• Under 2.5 Goals (+100 at DraftKings)

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Italy has to look no further than their results versus Norway to find the reason for their current predicament. The Italians dropped both matches to the eventual group winner in the qualifying stage, getting outscored 7-1 in the process. They swept their other six contests however, conceding one goal or less in five of the matches, with four clean sheets.

Northern Ireland meanwhile, was 3-3 in their World Cup qualifying matches, scoring 1 or fewer goals in five of the contests. They don’t post the offensive firepower to compete with the football powerhouse, and their only avenue for a victory is by keeping Italy off the scoresheet and lucking into a goal themselves. 

Historic trends back a low scoring output for the underdogs, as Northern Ireland has failed to score in six consecutive matches against the Italians, and have just one victory versus them in 11 meetings all-time.

Northern Ireland also struggles to establish and keep possession, posting a measly 39% possession rate during qualifying. Their style of play is predicated on a heavy back presence to frustrate their opposition, but it also makes it much more difficult to generate offense. They’ll have a nightmare time trying to crack the Italians defense, making it more likely Italy can put up a wall in front of their keeper once they take the lead.

Ultimately, the Italians are well aware of the catastrophic consequences of losing this match. There is zero chance they push the pace and risk committing a mistake that could end up in the back of their net. That will lead to a low-scoring outcome, helping us cash our under 2.5 goals wager.

• Mateo Retegui Anytime Goalscorer (+125 at DraftKings)

Moving over to the props market, where I’m targeting Mateo Retegui to find the back of the net. Scoring will to be tough to come by for both squads, but no Italian has been more dangerous than Retegui. He’s scored five times in his seven World Cup qualifying starts, averaging four shots per match. The 26-year-old has been in fine form in the Saudi Pro League scoring three times in his last three outings for Al Qadsiah.