Prediction & Goalscorer Picks for Borussia Dortmund vs Atalanta (Feb 17)

• Dortmund striker Serhou Guirassy is in elite form with five goals in his last three domestic fixtures
• Borussia Dortmund’s defensive crisis heavily correlates with over 2.5 goals cashing on Tuesday
• See my top picks and predictions for Borussia Dortmund vs Atalanta in the first leg in Germany

The UEFA Champions League playoff round brings high stakes to Signal Iduna Park this Tuesday as Borussia Dortmund hosts Atalanta at 3:00 pm ET on Tuesday, February 17, with broadcast coverage available on Paramount+ in the United States and Fubo TV north of the border.

Both clubs enter this knockout tie with significant momentum; Dortmund is riding a six-game win streak in the Bundesliga, while Atalanta is unbeaten in their last eight Serie A matches. However, the outcome of this first leg could come down to availability: the hosts are navigating a severe defensive injury crisis, while the visitors must cope without their creative engine in the midfield. With a spot in the round of 16 on the line, oddsmakers have installed the German giants as home favorites, expecting their prolific attack to compensate for defensive frailties in front of the Yellow Wall.

Borussia Dortmund vs Atalanta Best Bet

• Over 2.5 Goals (-135 at Caesars)

The strongest angle on the board is the Over. While -135 requires a higher win rate to be profitable, the underlying metrics and personnel situations justify the price. This handicap is built on Dortmund’s inability to defend, not just their ability to score.

Dortmund is currently without starting center-backs Nico Schlotterbeck and Niklas Süle, along with defensive midfielder Emre Can. This makeshift backline has contributed to a tournament record where they concede an average of 2.12 goals per match. The visitors play a vertical brand of football, averaging 13.5 shots per game. Even without De Ketelaere, their volume shooting against a depleted Dortmund defense should result in at least one road goal, forcing Dortmund to score two or more to win.

On top of that, the head-to-head average between these clubs is 2.67 goals per game, and Dortmund’s home matches in this competition consistently devolve into shootouts.

Dortmund vs Atalanta Player-Prop Pick

• Serhou Guirassy Anytime Goalscorer (+115 at FanDuel)

With the projected goal total high, the anytime-goalscorer markets offer significant positive expected value (+EV), particularly on the home side’s in-form striker.

Serhou Guirassy is currently one of the hottest strikers in Europe. After a brief dry spell, he has exploded for five goals in his last three Bundesliga matches, including braces against Heidenheim and Mainz.

Guirassy has three goals and two assists in eight Champions League appearances, contributing a goal every 0.62 games.

Atalanta concedes 1.25 goals per game in the UCL, and with their aggressive high line, Guirassy will have space to operate in transition. At +117 (implied 46.1%), the odds do not fully account for his current domestic tear.

Borussia Dortmund vs Atalanta Odds

The betting markets have positioned the hosts as plus-money favorites for this clash at Signal Iduna Park. The best Dortmund moneyline is currently +110 at BetMGM, which also has the longest odds on a full-time draw (+260). The longest odds on an Atalanta win are +250 at FanDuel.

The total goals market is juiced to the over 2.5 at -135 (Caesars). The best under price is +112 at FanDuel.

Odds as of February 17. See a comprehensive list of betting sites with Apple Pay.

Implied Probabilities and Payouts

Stripping out the vig (the sportsbook’s fee), the true win probabilities for this match are:

• Borussia Dortmund: 45.2%
• Atalanta: 27.9%
• Draw: 26.9%

For bettors looking to allocate capital to the moneyline:

• A $20 wager on Borussia Dortmund (+110) would return a total payout of $42.
• A $20 wager on Atalanta (+250) would return a total payout of $70.

Team Stats Comparison

Dortmund enters this tie as the more efficient side, maximizing their chances at a higher rate than the volume-heavy Italians.

The most glaring stat is Offsides. Atalanta is caught offside 3.0 times per game, five times more often than Dortmund (0.6). This indicates an aggressive, risky attacking structure. If Dortmund’s makeshift defense can hold the line, they will frustrate Atalanta.

Conversely, Dortmund’s 2.38 goals on just 10.4 shots highlights elite finishing efficiency, a major edge in knockout football.

Dortmund vs Atalanta Injury Reports

The injury report is the single most influential factor for this handicap. Dortmund’s defense is decimated, while Atalanta loses its creative spark.

Borussia Dortmund

• Nico Schlotterbeck (CB): OUT – Muscular issues. A massive loss for aerial defense and distribution.
• Niklas Süle (CB): OUT – Thigh injury. Leaves the team without its two primary central defenders.
• Emre Can (CDM): OUT – Adductor. The midfield shield is missing, exposing the backline further.
• Filippo Mane (CB): OUT – Thigh. Removes depth options.

Atalanta BC

• Charles De Ketelaere (CAM): OUT – Meniscus. The team’s top UCL creator (4 goal involvements) is unavailable, severely hurting their link-up play.
• Giacomo Raspadori (FW): OUT – Muscle strain.
• Gianluca Scamacca (ST): Probable – Despite early doubts, reports indicate the striker remains doubtful to start, which is critical for Atalanta’s hopes of scoring against Dortmund’s weakened defense.

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