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RB Leipzig vs Borussia Dortmund Odds & Prediction – DFB-Pokal Finals

Sam Cox

by Sam Cox in Soccer

May 12, 2021 · 7:07 AM PDT

Dortmund's Jadon Sancho, center, is celebrated after scoring his side's second goal during the German Bundesliga soccer match between Borussia Dortmund and RB Leipzig in Dortmund, Germany, Saturday, May 8, 2021. (AP Photo/Martin Meissner, Pool)
  • RB Leipzig and Borussia Dortmund meet in the DFB-Pokal final on Thursday
  • Leipzig are looking to win the competition for the first time after losing to Bayern Munich in the 2019 final
  • Read below for the latest odds, betting preview and a pick

Chasing their first-ever DFB-Pokal triumph, RB Leipzig are in the final for the second time in three years as they matchup with Borussia Dortmund on Thursday. Only four teams have won the competition more than Dortmund, who most recently lifted the trophy in 2017.

There’s little to choose between the two teams in the latest DFB-Pokal odds. With Leipzig stuttering of late and only six points separating them domestically, that’s hardly a surprise. Dortmund have won the three previous meetings, and we have to go all the way back to October 2017 for the last time Leipzig got the better of the four-time DFB-Pokal winners.

The two sides had a dress rehearsal at the weekend, which Dortmund won 3-2. Erling Haaland was unavailable for that match, though, and the prolific Norwegian is expected to start on Thursday.

Leipzig vs Dortmund Odds

Matchup Spread Moneyline Total at DraftKings
Leipzig vs Dortmund RBL +0.5 (-190) | DOR -0.5 (+155) RBL +170 | DOR +155 | DRAW +240 Ov 2.75 (-110) | Un 2.75 (-112)

Odds as of May 12

Sancho Works His Magic

Finally returning from a muscle injury, Jadon Sancho put in a scintillating performance in Dortmund’s win last time out. His late goal won Dortmund a crucial three points in their battle for a top-four spot, and he was a problem for Leipzig throughout the 90 minutes.

While Sancho’s numbers are not as standout as previous seasons, he has been every bit as dangerous. Of players to play over 700 Bundesliga minutes, only four register more expected assists per 90. He’s also in a rich vein of form with nine-goal contributions in his previous nine appearances, stretching back to before his injury. Haaland might not be fully fit, but Sancho certainly is and he could find plenty of space to operate against Leipzig’s back three.

Leipzig have been a solid defensive team all year long. They are miles clear in non-penalty expected goals against for the season, yet they were all at sea trying to cope with Dortmund just a few days ago. Being so vulnerable, even with Haaland out, is cause for concern.

Cup Form

Both teams have impressed in the DFB-Pokal this term. Neither side has conceded in normal time during the competition, a contrast to the open match we saw between the two clubs at the weekend. The tension of a cup final can often tighten up a match, and that could well be the case on Thursday.

Leipzig were able to play carefree in the league, but that’s not the case for this one. Julian Nagelsmann’s team will be desperate to win the DFB-Pokal for the first time in the club’s history in what would be an ideal way to sign off Nagelsmann’s tenure.

With matches spread out across the campaign and a variety of opponents on show, it’s hard to take too much from cup performances. These two teams are relatively evenly matched. Their circumstances clearly have influenced tactics and performances in recent weeks, but the results in April and May are more useful for predicting Thursday’s final than how they fared in the DFB-Pokal.

Dortmund are the form side of the two with five straight league wins. Leizpig have picked up just seven of the last 18 Bundesliga points available.

Leipzig vs Dortmund Bundesliga Stats


57 Goals 69
16 Shots taken per 90 14.8
583.8 Passes per 90 615
53 yellows, 0 reds Cards 43 yellows, 1 red
59% Shots inside the area 62%

Back BVB

While Dortmund are dealing with plenty of notable absentees, including Axel Witsel and Dan-Axel Zagadou, the return of Haaland is what really matters here. If he’s good to start, it’s going to be very hard to look past the 2017 winners.

Leipzig, through a mix of underwhelming performance and a lack of motivation, have dropped off notably in recent weeks. It’s difficult to flick the switch and get back to their peak performance level.

Taking Dortmund on the double chance as insurance against extra time is a safe bet here, but at -210, backing the Edin Terzic’s team straight up is the better value option.

Pick: Borussia Dortmund moneyline (+155)

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