- RB Leipzig sit top of the Bundesliga despite loss in their last match
- Borussia Monchengladbach are third, two points behind Leipzig
- Leipzig won the reverse fixture back in August
RB Leipzig host Borussia Monchengladbach on Saturday, February 1, 2020. Leipzig are the current Bundesliga leaders with 40 points from their 19 matches, putting them one ahead of Bayern Munich. Monchengladbach sit in third on 38 points, having been the surprise package of the first months of the campaign. The two teams met back in August with Leipzig, led by a Timo Werner hat-trick, winning 3-1.
With such a tight title race, and Bayern lurking with five wins on the bounce, this is one of the biggest matches of the season. Defeat for Monchengladbach will see them start looking over their shoulder towards Bayer Leverkusen.
RB Leipzig vs Borussia Monchengladbach Odds
|RB Leipzig||-1 (-118)||-185||O 3 (-134)|
|Borussia Monchengladbach||+1 (-102)||+420||U 3 (+144)|
Odds taken Jan. 30
Leipzig completely dominated the match at Borussia-Park. A late goal from Breel Embolo flattered Monchengladbach – they were unable to create quality chances up until that point and their defense could not cope with the Werner and Yussuf Poulsen strike partnership.
Gladbach won five in a row following the loss to Leipzig in August. They have excelled against the teams they’re meant to beat, but their record against the top sides is underwhelming. Other than a dramatic late win over a 10-man Bayern, they have taken just four points from five matches against teams currently in the top six. Prior to this season, Gladbach’s squad looked inferior to the other top teams – their meetings with those sides have highlighted that lack of comparative quality.
Per Understat’s expected goals, Gladbach have underperformed in attack. Alassane Plea scored a brace last time out, but he hasn’t been consistent. He scored once in the 12 matches before that. Marcus Thuram is one of the best dribblers in the league, completing 2.1 per match, but his productivity has been streaky too with no goals or assists in his last four starts.
Leipzig’s defense has been solid this season. Gladbach aren’t blessed with natural creators – they cannot afford for their two main attacking options to waste chances.
RB Leipzig vs Borussia Monchengladbach Bundesliga Stats
|26 yellows, 1 red||Cards||41 yellows, 1 red|
|16.9||Shots per match||13.9|
|58%||Shots inside the area||59%|
|38.96||Understat expected points||34.20|
Few strikers, if any, in Europe are in as good form as Werner. The electric German center forward has scored 14 in his last 10 Bundesliga outings with six assists for good measure. Leipzig have won eight of those 10 matches, scoring 34 goals in the process.
All 20 of Timo Werner’s Bundesliga goals this season 🇩🇪
One of the hottest strikers on the planet right now 👌pic.twitter.com/AZS1ZGVu5w
— Goal (@goal) January 25, 2020
Gladbach will take confidence from Eintracht Frankfurt keeping a clean sheet against Leipzig last weekend and reducing them to low-quality shots. Leipzig recorded just over one expected goal in the match on 22 total shots. Frankfurt were comfortable sitting deep without the ball, letting Leipzig have over 66% of possession. Gladbach will likely follow a similar gameplan on Saturday. Eliminating space behind the defense might be the only way to stop Werner.
Leipzig Too Good
A stellar defensive performance is required if Gladbach are to upset the odds. They kept two league clean sheets in late-December, but they are the only two times they have stopped the opponent scoring since September. The visitors are an okay defensive team, and will need to ride their luck to take anything from Red Bull Arena.
Eintracht Frankfurt put a stop to RB Leipzig's nine-game run of scoring 3+ goals ⛔
They're the first team to keep a clean sheet against Nagelsmann's side this season 😮 pic.twitter.com/DZXB5YayjD
— Bundesliga English (@Bundesliga_EN) January 26, 2020
Leipzig will be out to prove that last weekend’s loss was a blip. With the in-form Bayern facing Mainz, a victory is almost certainly required to retain top spot. It’s a big few weeks for Julian Nagelsmann’s side with the Champions League last 16 coming up as well as Bundesliga matches against Bayern, Leverkusen and Schalke.
The hosts are the best bet here. Their quality should prove too much for a Gladbach team that is a couple of additions away from being a real contender.
Pick: Leipzig -1 (-118)
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