Real Madrid vs Atletico Madrid Prediction, Odds, Lineups – La Liga Week 23 (Feb 25)
- It’s Real Madrid vs Atletico Madrid in La Liga Week 23 on Sunday, February 26
- Los Blancos have slipped to eight points behind leaders Barcelona, while Atleti are in fourth
- Find our Real Madrid vs Atletico Madrid prediction below, where we look at the odds and offer some picks
It’s Real Madrid vs Atletico Madrid – the Madrid derby – in La Liga on Sunday, February 26 at the Santiago Bernabeu with an 11:30pm ET kick-off. Los Blancos are odds-on favorites in the Real Madrid vs Atletico Madrid odds.
Real are currently second in the table, eight points behind leaders Barcelona, while Atleti are fourth – 18 points adrift of Barca – and in a battle with Real Betis for the fourth Champions League spot.
We preview our Real Madrid vs Atletico Madrid picks, look at the odds, and offer some analysis, team news, and predictions below.
Real Madrid vs Atletico Madrid Odds
| Matchup | Moneyline |
|---|---|
| Real Madrid | -130 |
| Atletico Madrid | +330 |
| Draw | +260 |
The bookmakers make Real odds-on favorites at -130 for the win, with a probability of 57%, while Atleti are listed at +330 for the away with a win probability of 23%. The draw, at +260, is implied at 28%. Odds as of February 24 at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Real Madrid vs Atletico Madrid Over/Under and Spread
The bookies are going cautious on this one and have pitched the benchmark at 2.5 goals, with the over at -110 and the under at -115.
Real Madrid vs Atletico Madrid Preview
Barcelona are threatening to pull away at the top of the La Liga table, so Los Blancos simply cannot afford to drop points between now and the end of the season. With just 16 games left and an eight-point gap to close, Carlo Ancelotti’s men must not allow themselves to be fazed or distracted by the intensity of a Madrid derby.
And the signs are good. They come into this in great form after all but securing their place in the last eight of the Champions League following a thrilling 5-2 win over Liverpool at Anfield in their first leg tie. They have also recorded wins in their last two league games, against Elche and Osasuna, scoring six goals without conceding in the process.
🤩💭 #RealMadridAtleti 💭🤩 pic.twitter.com/4RGKJjGoX6
— Real Madrid C.F. 🇬🇧🇺🇸 (@realmadriden) February 24, 2023
Los Blanco Unbeaten at Home
In addition to being in the hunt for the Champions League and La Liga titles, Real also have upcoming, on March 2, the first leg of a Copa del Rey semi-final with Barcelona, so Ancelotti will be acutely aware of the need to keep his squad fit and fresh for the challenges ahead.
Los Blancos have some outstanding home form behind them and have not been beaten in the Bernabeu all season. Also worth noting is that when these two met at the Wanda Metropolitano earlier in the season in the reverse fixture, Real won 2-1, and in this equivalent fixture last season they won 2-0.
No Title Race for Atleti
Atletico are currently 18 points behind Barcelona and so, realistically, are already out of this season’s title. In what has been a disappointing campaign, they have also been knocked out of the Champions League (missing out also on a place in the Europa League) and the Copa del Rey, so what’s left for them is to fight for a place in next season’s UCL.
The fact they have only La Liga soccer to concentrate on, and fewer midweek games, should give Alteti the edge here in terms of freshness but the question is, do they have enough quality in their squad to make that advantage count?
Big game loading ⏳ pic.twitter.com/uutYHzfgZI
— Atlético de Madrid (@atletienglish) February 24, 2023
Simeone Under Pressure
For almost the first time in Diego Simeone’s tenure as Atleti’s head coach, questions are being asked of his ability to take the team forward. In a stellar career in Madrid that’s now in its 12th season, and which includes two La Liga titles, he has seldom needed victory in a Madrid derby more.
On the plus side, Atletico have had some success on the road this season, winning seven of their 11 matches and collecting 23 of their 41 points in the process, but they know that a trip to the Bernabeu is one of the two biggest tests in Spanish soccer.
Real Madrid vs Atletico Madrid Team Lineups and Injuries
Real Projected Lineup: Courtois, Carvajal, Militao, Rudiger, Nacho, Modric, Tchouameni, Kroos, Valverde, Benzema, Vinicius.
Injuries & absences: Mendy, Diaz, Alaba, Rodrygo.
Atleti Projected Lineup: Oblak, Molina, Savic, Hermoso, Reinildo, Llorente, Barrios, Koke, Carrasco, Griezmann, Morata.
Injuries & absences: De Paul, Lemar.
Real Madrid vs Atletico Madrid Head-to-Head Stats
| 16-3-3 | La Liga record | 19-2-1 |
| 46 / 17 | Goals for / against | 45 / 7 |
| 14.2 | Shots per game | 17.4 |
| 89.9 | Passing accuracy (%) | 83.3 |
| 59.5 | Possession (%) | 50.2 |
| WDWLWW | La Liga form guide | DWWDWW |
Stats from WhoScored.com.
Real Madrid vs Atletico Madrid Prediction
The only obvious factor in Atleti’s favor is freshness after having had a clear week, while Real had a draining Champions League tie with Liverpool. To counter that, Los Blancos have a bigger squad with more quality than Atletico, and for that reason, it’s hard to predict anything other than the home win.
Real Madrid vs Atletico Madrid Pick: Real Madrid to win (-130)
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Once just a sports fanatic, fan-turned-writer Gary Gowers has been featured on European television and radio networks to discuss several professional football clubs. His work can be found in an assortment of publications like The Metro, MyFootballWriter.com, and BBC Radio Norfolk.
