Benfica vs Real Madrid Picks, Goalscorer Props & Injuries – Is Mbappe Playing Today?

• Real Madrid is priced as a -110 road favorite despite suspect defensive metrics in the Champions League
• Over 2.5 goals has seen aggressive market movement in Benfica vs Real Madrid
• Check out my favorite Benfica vs Real Madrid picks and goalscorer props on Feb 17

The UEFA Champions League knockout stage heats up on Tuesday as Real Madrid travels to Lisbon seeking redemption against SL Benfica in the first leg of the playoff round. After finishing a disappointing 9th in the league phase, Los Blancos find themselves in a precarious position against a Benfica squad that secured the 24th and final postseason spot. The narrative is heavily charged with revenge; just weeks ago on January 28, the Portuguese giants stunned the reigning champions with a 4-2 victory, a chaotic result that dropped Madrid into this playoff tie.

Kickoff is scheduled for Tuesday, February 17 at 3:00 pm ET from the hostile confines of the Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica with Paramount+ providing broadcast coverage in the US and Fubo TV in Canada. Handicapping today’s game is complicated by the uncertain status of Kylian Mbappe and the absence of Jude Bellingham on the Real Madrid’s side. This breakdown dissects the market value as a depleted Madrid faces a Benfica team managed by former Madrid boss José Mourinho, who will be eager to exploit his former club’s defensive lapses.

Jump to: ODDS || PICKS || H2H STATS || INJURIES

Real Madrid vs SL Benfica Odds

The betting market positions the Spanish giants as away favorites, though the price reflects the volatility of Madrid’s recent form and injury concerns. Real Madrid was a -110 favorite yesterday but has faded to +124 on the morning of gameday. Benfica, meanwhile, has improved from +270 to +224, while the draw has shortened from +300 to +272.

Odds as of February 17 at bet365. See SBD’s full list of online betting banking methods.

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Public-Betting Splits

The betting public has taken a definitive stance on this playoff clash, showing overwhelming confidence in the visitors and a high-scoring game script.

• Moneyline Handle: Real Madrid (93.1%), Benfica (5.1%), Draw (1.9%).
• Total Goals Handle: Over (98.2%), Under (1.8%).

Analysis: There is no “Sharps-vs-Squares” divide here. The public money is in lockstep with the analytical models, aggressively backing both the Real Madrid moneyline and the over 2.5 Goals. With over 93% of the handle on Los Blancos, the market is ignoring the “home underdog” narrative, expecting the talent gap to override home-field advantage.

Benfica vs Real Madrid Picks & Predictions

While the atmosphere in Lisbon will be intense, the statistical chasm in offensive production between these two sides makes it difficult to fade the visitors, provided their attack remains intact. The aggressive correction on the goal total aligns with the underlying defensive metrics of both clubs.

Moneyline Pick: Real Madrid (+124 at bet365)

Real Madrid enters this playoff round with a defensive record that is statistically alarming for a favorite, having conceded 12 goals in eight matches (1.5 goals allowed per game). However, their offensive output provides a distinct edge.

Conversely, Madrid possesses the tournament’s most lethal weapon. Kylian Mbappe has been statistically absurd, netting 13 goals in just seven matches. He has outscored Benfica’s top-three scorers combined (13 vs 7). When combining Mbappe’s conversion rate with Vinicius Junior’s creation (4 assists), Madrid generates a volume of high-xG chances that Benfica’s backline – which has also conceded 12 goals this term – will struggle to suppress.

Total Goals Pick: Over 2.5 (-135 at BetMGM)

The initial market look toward the under was a mispricing that ignored the defensive fragility of the Spanish giants. Real Madrid’s season profile is that of a team designed to outscore its mistakes. With goalkeepers Thibaut Courtois and Andriy Lunin facing a high volume of shots (147 total shots allowed), clean sheets are a statistical anomaly for this squad.

Benfica will likely score at home – Vangelis Pavlidis (2 goals, 2 assists) remains a threat – but they lack the defensive personnel to engage in a low-scoring grind against Los Blancos. With Madrid conceding 1.5 goals per game and Benfica averaging 1.0 goal conceded against weaker competition, the metrics project a 2-1 or 3-1 scoreline.

Goalscorer Pick: Kylian Mbappe Anytime Goalscorer (-105 at bet365)

Finding the world’s most in-form striker at near-even money is a rare opportunity. Kylian Mbappe has been a phenomenon in this campaign, netting 13 goals in seven matches for an average of nearly two goals per 90 minutes. He is managing a knee issue, but latest reports are that he’s fit to play.

Benfica’s backline lacks the pace to track Mbappe’s runs in transition, a weakness exposed in the previous meeting where he scored twice. Madrid’s strategy under Álvaro Arbeloa relies on outscoring opponents rather than locking them down, and Mbappe is the primary beneficiary of this chaotic system.

Benfica/Madrid H2H Team Stats

To understand the mismatch, we must analyze the per-game efficiency. Real Madrid’s statistical profile is that of an offensive juggernaut accepting high risks, while Benfica relies on volume over efficiency.

The most glaring disparity is offensive efficiency. Real Madrid averages 2.63 goals per game, nearly triple Benfica’s output (0.83). While Benfica appears statistically sturdier at the back (1.00 conceded), they have yet to consistently face an attack generating 7.5 shots on target per game like Madrid.

Real Madrid’s high foul count (2.25 cards) indicates an aggressive style that disrupts play but risks dangerous set pieces – a key avenue for Benfica to score.

Real Madrid/Benfica Injury Reports

As kickoff approaches, the injury report is the single most critical variable. While SL Benfica enters relatively healthy, Real Madrid is managing a crisis affecting their spine.

Real Madrid

• Jude Bellingham (Midfielder): Out. Ruled out with a hamstring injury, his absence leaves a void in transition defense.
• Eder Militao (Defender): Out. His long-term absence is a primary driver for Madrid’s 1.5 goals conceded per game average.
• Rodrygo (Forward): Doubtful. Dealing with fitness issues and potential suspension fallout from the previous red card.
• Kylian Mbappe (Forward): Questionable. The tournament’s top scorer is managing a knee issue. His participation is critical for the Moneyline and Over bets.

SL Benfica

• Fredrik Aursnes (Midfielder): Out. A key loss for the midfield engine, but otherwise, Manager José Mourinho has a largely fit squad.
• Status: High Availability. Unlike their opponents, Benfica has had uninterrupted preparation with their core attackers, reinforcing the value on their player props.

Check out SBD’s comprehensive coverage of Tuesday’s UEFA Champions League games, including:

• A.I. Picks for All Four Champions League Games Today
• Galatasaray vs Juventus Prediction, Player-Prop Picks & How to Watch
• Prediction & Goalscorer Picks for Borussia Dortmund vs Atalanta
• Monaco vs PSG Prediction, Odds & Picks

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