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Would Ronaldo Transfer Make Juventus the Champions League Favorite?

Sascha Paruk

by Sascha Paruk in Soccer News

Updated Jul 6, 2018 · 12:23 PM PDT

Cristiano Ronaldo celebrating a goal for Real Madrid
Even at age 33, Cristiano Ronaldo is still arguably the best goal scorer in the world, especially on the Champions League stage. Photo by Jan S0L0 (flickr) CC License.
  • Eager for new challenges, Cristiano Ronaldo is set to transfer from Real Madrid to Juventus. 
  • Does the addition of the five-time UCL champion and all-time leading scorer instantly make The Old Lady the Champions League favorites?
  • Now 33 years old, can the greatest goal scorer of this generation break single-season records in Italy?

Three English Premier League titles, two La Liga titles, five Champions League titles, one Euro title, five Ballon d’Or awards: that barely scratches the surface of Cristiano Ronaldo’s career achievements.

After winning the Champions League for the third straight season at Real Madrid last year, Ronaldo — the all-time leading scorer in the competition (116 goals) — is likely heading for new and equally green pastures, currently working on a €100 transfer to Serie A’s Juventus.

The proposed €100 fee wouldn’t quite be record setting — five players have cost more — but it should be noted that every player above the 33-year-old Ronaldo on the list was at least eight years younger at the time of his transfer.

PLAYERS WITH MOST EXPENSIVE TRANSFER FEES FROM ⇒ TO (YEAR) AGE AT TIME OF TRANSFER TRANSFER FEE
Neymar Barcelona ⇒PSG  (2017) 25 €222
Kylian Mbappe Monaco ⇒ PSG  (2018) 19 €145
Philippe Coutinho Liverpool ⇒ Barcelona (2018) 25 €120
Ousmane Dembele Borussia Dortmund ⇒ Barcelona (2017) 20 €105
Paul Pogba Juventus ⇒ Manchester United  (2016) 23 €105
Cristiano Ronaldo Real Madrid ⇒ Juventus (2018) 33 €100

*Italics = proposed transfer. 

If and when Ronaldo joins the 34-time Italian champions, La Vecchia Signora will immediately become the outright favorites to win, not just their seventh straight Serie A crown, but potentially the 2018-19 Champions League as well.

Domestically, Napoli and AS Roma have come close to ending Juve’s reign of terror recently; Juve’s cushion over the league fell from 17 points to nine points to just four points each of the last two years. But Juve still crushed the competition in terms of goal differential last season at +62, which was 14 better than second-place Napoli, and were the top squad in both goals-for and goals-against.

In the Champions League, the 2016-17 runners-up respectfully navigated a gauntlet of a draw last year. After finishing second to Barcelona in the Group Stage, they knocked off Harry Kane and Tottenham in the Round of 16 (4-3 on aggregate) before narrowly falling to Ronaldo’s Real Madrid in the quarters (4-3 on aggregate).

They nearly pulled off one of the most improbable comebacks in UCL history after losing 3-0 at home in the first leg against Real. Mario Mandzukic and company came all the way back to level the aggregate at 3-3, only to be devastated by a Ronaldo penalty in extra time.

How would signing Ronaldo skew the odds to both avenge that defeat and return to the apex of Italian soccer?

Juventus Odds: Before & After Ronaldo Transfer

JUVENTUS’ ODDS TO WIN …. WITHOUT RONALDO WITH RONALDO
2018-19 Serie A title 7/8 2/3
2018-19 Champions League 10/1 6/1

Juventus’ roster was already stacked, featuring Mandzukic, Paulo Dybala (26 goals in 46 appearances), and the seemingly ageless Giorgio Chiellini, who is still at his defensive best at age 33 …

Last year’s home-and-home with Real showed that, even without Ronaldo, this team was already on par with Europe’s best.

Adding Ronaldo’s scoring prowess to a team that has long been among the best defensive squads in the world could make for a truly indomitable group. Fans are understandably excited at the prospect.

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Some pundits are concerned that Ronaldo’s presence will upset the balance of the team. Others have opined that Juve management would be better served by bringing younger talent to the aging roster. However, that’s a long-term concern, not one that will impact next year’s team.

Ronaldo is still near his peak, at least in terms of his ability to put the ball in the net, if not in terms of his pace. He led the Champions League in goals (again) with 15 and finished second in La Liga with 26 to Lio Messi’s 34, while playing in just 27 games compared to 36 for Messi.

When he’s on the pitch, his nose for the net is as strong as ever. Is it strong enough to break Serie A records?

Cristiano Ronaldo Over/Unders 2018-19

STATISTIC OVER/UNDER
Goals for Juventus in Serie A 28.5
Goals for Juventus in the Champions League 12.0

The current Serie A record for goals in a single season belongs to a man who is likely to be Ronaldo’s teammate next year, Gonzalo Higuain, who potted an incredible 36 in the 2015-16 campaign.

Ronaldo averaged over a goal per La Liga appearance in his nine seasons with Real Madrid (311 goals in 296 appearances). If he was likely to suit up for all 38 of Juve’s Serie A matches next year, he would have a real shot at breaking Higuain’s mark. (La Liga is slightly higher scoring in terms of goals per game, but not by much.)

The aging Ronaldo is not likely to [play all 38 of Juve’s Serie A games] which is why the over/under for his domestic goal total is, unlike his body, sub-30.

The aging Ronaldo is not likely to see that much action, though, which is why the over/under for his domestic goal total is, unlike his body, sub-30.

When it comes to the Champions League, though, expect Massimiliano Allegri to rely heavily on his new star. Juventus haven’t won the UCL title since 1996, finishing a heartbreaking second five times since then (1997, 1998, 2003, 2015, 2017).

Always at his best on Europe’s biggest club stage, Ronaldo has scored at least 10 goals in seven straight Champions League season. Next year will be no different with Juve poised to make a deep run.

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