- Rotherham on cusp of relegation to League One
- Wigan’s home form keeping them alive
- The Millers on -350 for the drop
One look at the English Championship table suggests Rotherham’s survival chances hang by a slender thread but thanks to a stirring second-half comeback at the weekend, they are still alive.
Odds to be Relegated From 2019 English Championship
*Odds taken April 16, 2019
Things certainly looked gloomy for the Millers at halftime on Saturday, as they trailed Stoke City 2-0 at the Bet365 Stadium, but two second-half goals – from Michael Smith and Matt Crooks – saw them earn what could turn out to be a priceless point.
Yet, despite their amazing comeback at Stoke, the bookies have Rotherham as odds-on to join already relegated Ipswich Town and Bolton Wanderers in next season’s League One – the English third tier.
— TNC Football ⚽️ (@TNC_Football) April 13, 2019
While the Millers are only two points adrift, their final four games are all against tough opponents, with home games against Birmingham and Middlesbrough and away games at Swansea and West Brom, hence them being -350 for the drop.
Fired Up and Determined
But the Millers are fighters – as they proved at Stoke on Saturday – and manager, Paul Warne, will have them fired up and determined to try and take this relegation battle to the wire.
— The Star, Green 'Un (@StarGreenUn) April 14, 2019
With the smallest budget in the division and, on paper, one of the weakest squads, it’s to Rotherham’s credit that they are still in with a shot of staying up and a testament to Warne’s clever man management and technical acumen.
Their nearest rivals, Wigan, picked up a precious point on Sunday against Norwich. They have been in good form at home, but it’s their away form that has put them in trouble in the first place and which will ultimately decide their fate.
Home Form Crucial for Latics
With only one away win all season – the worst away record in the league – the Latics will head to Leeds and Birmingham in hope rather than expectation.
This makes their home games against Preston and Millwall doubly crucial, especially if Rotherham are able to pick up a couple of wins from their four games.
— Wigan Brasil (@LaticsBR) April 11, 2019
In theory, the Wigan vs Millwall game on the final day of the season could be a winner-takes-all scenario – again dependant on Rotherham’s results. But crucially the south Londoners have one more game left to play than their rivals, following their run in the FA Cup.
Lions’ Den to Prove Decisive
Aside from their clash with Wigan, the Lions have three home games – against Brentford, Stoke City and Bristol City.
It’s here they’ll hope to use their vociferous home crowd to help them get the job done, particularly as the other away game, at in-form Aston Villa, looks very tricky.
— NewsAtDen (@NewsAtDen) April 13, 2019
We think that the extra game, and three home games, will be enough to see Millwall safe. Reading too, look to have enough to stay safe – and so it essentially boils down to a shootout between Rotherham and Wigan.
Rotherham really need to pick up an away win at either Leeds or Birmingham
Final Day Drama?
It will be tight, very tight, and we won’t be surprised if it comes down to the final day, in which case we can see Wigan’s good home form being enough to see it through.
Rotherham meanwhile, really need to pick up an away win at either Leeds or Birmingham and, while a draw (or even two) isn’t beyond them, we can’t see them getting the wins they desperately need.
So, despite a valiant fight, we see the Millers as favorites for the drop for a reason and therefore the -350 is well worthy of a bet.
Our pick: Rotherham