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Sergio Aguero Favored to Win Premier League Golden Boot With 8 Match Days Left

John Dillon

by John Dillon in Soccer News

Updated Apr 9, 2020 · 2:57 PM PDT

Man City's Sergio Aguero leads the EPL with 18 goals in the 2018-19 season. Is he the best bet to win the Premier League Golden Boot, or should bettors be looking elsewhere?
  • Man City’s Sergio Aguero leads the EPL with 18 goals in the 2018-19 season
  • Four players are just one goal behind Aguero with 17
  • See the odds to win the Premier League’s Golden Boot

Manchester City’s four-fold hunt for silverware this Spring means they have been temporarily removed from the top of the Premier League by Liverpool.

It is Pep Guardiola’s team who remain the favorites to win the prize, however. And not just because they have a precious game in hand.

They have won six straight Premier League matches since a shock defeat at Newcastle at the end of January, while in the same period, Jurgen Klopp’s side have drawn three times.

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Unsurprisingly, it was the ever-dependable goal-scoring ruthlessness of Sergio Aguero which was key to kick-starting this critical run of form when he scored two-hat-tricks inside eight days against Arsenal and Chelsea at the beginning of February.

This delivered a turbo-boost to his statistics, which means that he is currently the competition’s leading marksman with 18 goals and the favorite at +150 to win the coveted Golden Boot award for the second time in his career.

Odds to Win the 2018-19 Premier League Golden Boot

Player Team Goals 2018-19 Golden Boot Odds
Sergio Aguero Man City 18 +150
Harry Kane Tottenham 17 +300
Mohamed Salah Liverpool 17 +300
Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang Arsenal 17 +550
Sadio Mane Liverpool 17 +900
Raheem Sterling Man City 15 +2000
Eden Hazard Chelsea 13 +4000
Alexandre Lacazette Arsenal 12 +5000
Jamie Vardy Leicester 12 +5000
Raul Jimenez Wolves 12 +5000
Romelu Lukaku Man Utd 12 +6600
Roberto Firmino Liverpool 11 +8000
Marcus Rashford Man Utd 9 +10000
Paul Pogba Man Utd 11 +10000
Richarlison Everton 12 +10000
Son Heung-Min Tottenham 11 +12500
Aleksandar Mitrovic Fulham 10 +15000

*Odds taken 03/19/19

Sergio Aguero at the Top of the Charts

It is a tight fight at the top of the charts with Mo Salah of Liverpool, Pierre Emerick-Aubeyang of Arsenal, Harry Kane of Tottenham and Sadio Mane of Liverpool, each just a goal behind Aguero.

Aguero has hit the net in every 107 minutes of game time in the EPL.

But there’s a momentum behind City just now and a sense that the Argentine is the most relentlessly dangerous of them all at ultra-competitive periods like this one, having hit the net in every 107 minutes of game time in the EPL.

Kane Has Dropped Off, While Mane Has Gotten Hot

Back in December, it was Kane who was favored for the Boot at +225 while Aguero was rated fourth at +1000. But a spell of injury and the recent collapse of Tottenham’s title challenge mean Aguero has overtaken him, with his odds certainly boosted by those hat-tricks last month and by City’s merciless winning run.

Now, it is the form of Mane, who has scored five times in the last four league games which challenges Aguero.

By contrast, his team-mate Salah hasn’t scored in five league fixtures. Aubameyang has three in Arsenal’s last six league games and Kane has three in four in the Premier League for Spurs. But again, Aguero’s chance of landing the championship once more gives him the edge.

With eight fixtures remaining and the battle with Liverpool so nail-bitingly, tight, every match is a big one from now on.

Aguero Should Be Favored

Although Aguero has not found the target in the most recent two Premier League outings, he must be favored because he has such a finely-honed  talent for delivering on the most important occasions.

This is something which earned him particular praise from Guardiola after the defeat of Liverpool in December.

Last year, as City finished on top , he missed much of the run-in after suffering a troublesome knee injury

The frustrations of that campaign add an extra dimension to his hunger this time around.

Aguero Should Thrive Against Fulham and Cardiff

It is going to be demanding for City from now on. They also play Tottenham in the two-legged quarter-final of the Champions League and have an FA Cup semi-final against Brighton.

This could mean Aguero will become fatigued, with an increased risk of injury.

Aguero’s long-term record suggests he will  consistently deliver goals until May.

If he stays fit, though, his long-term record suggests he will  consistently deliver goals until May.

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The next two league dates are against clubs in the bottom three, Fulham and then Cardiff, who have respectively conceded 70 and 57 goals this season. Both games will be prime territory for Aguero to extend his lead.

If it then comes to a shoot-out at the end of the campaign, City’s final three fixtures are against Burnley, Leicester, and Brighton – again offering the opportunity for Aguero to punish lesser outfits, especially if valuable title race points are required.

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