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Spain vs Poland Odds & Prediction – Euro 2020 Group E June 19th, 2021

Josh Ricker

by Josh Ricker in Soccer

Jun 18, 2021 · 12:02 PM PDT

Spain vs Poland
Spain's Koke talks to his team at the start of the Euro 2020 soccer championship group E match between Spain and Sweden in Sevilla, Spain, Monday, June 14, 2021. (Jose Manuel Vidal/Pool via AP)
  • Spain hosts Poland in the second Group E Matchday of the Euro 2020 tournament on Saturday, June 19th at 3:00 pm ET
  • Both of these sides started off their Euro 2020 campaign with disappointing results as Spain drew with Sweden and Poland fell to Slovakia
  • See the odds, our analysis and betting prediction below

One of the more interesting groups at the Euro 2020 tournament is most definitely Group E. With three teams placing in the top 25 of FIFA’s World Rankings, this will be an extremely difficult group to get out of. However, Group E has made quite the peculiar start as the lowest ranked team, Slovakia is atop their group thanks to a 2-1 victory over Poland. Paulo Sousa’s side is now tasked with playing Spain in the second matchday, in what will be a vital match for their hopes of qualifying for the knockout rounds.

Similarly to Poland, Spain had a very unusual start to their Euro 2020 campaign, drawing on zeroes to Sweden. While the Swedes are more than worthy competitors, it is a frankly a game that a team with the quality of Spain should be winning. While the Spaniards kept a clean sheet, their offense was miserable as they failed to convert on 17 total attempts on goal.

Spain vs Poland Odds

Matchup Spread Moneyline Total
Spain vs Poland SPA -1.5 (+104) | POL +1.5 (-124) SPA -286 | POL +850 | DRAW +410 Ov 2.5 (-121) | Un 2.5 (+100)

Odds as of June 17 at DraftKings

Additionally, while Poland lost their first match, it was a strange and unlucky performance. A rare Wojciech Szczesny own goal along with a red card for Grzegorz Krychowiak pretty much sorted this game out in favor of Slovakia. Nonetheless, Poland are a talented side, and you better believe that Robert Lewandowski will be trying to get his name on the goal sheet this Saturday against Spain.

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Expect Changes for Luis Enrique’s Spain

One thing to count on in this match is that Luis Enrique will make changes to this Spain side. Since their 2012 coronation at the Euros, Spain have been quite disappointing in major tournaments, failing to advance past the round of 16. With that being said, mediocrity can no longer be accepted for the Spanish national team, and to say they were mediocre against Sweden is putting it nicely. Changes need to be made for their match against Poland, in the midfield and attack.

Spain vs Poland Statistics

1.66 Goals per game 1.71
17.2 Shots per game 10.7
67.7% Possession % 51.4%
90.8% Passing % 81.9%

Expect Enrique to take Alvaro Morata out of the starting eleven in favor of Gerard Moreno who came on as a sub against Sweden. Morata was simply not clinical enough in front of goal and Spain has better resources on the bench. Moreno, who plays for Villarreal, scored 32 goals in all competitions this year and would pose as a serious threat to a shaky Poland back line.

Furthermore, 18 year-old Pedri was probably the weak link for Spain in the midfield against Sweden. Instead, Thiago Alcantara will provide a little bit more creativity in the middle and better service going forward. If Enrique sees this and makes the necessary changes, it will be very difficult to beat a Spain side desperate for three points.

Can Lewandowski Influence This Match?

Regardless of the changes Spain might make, they will have to be concerned over Poland’s main man, Lewandowksi. The 32 year-old is a goal scoring machine, bagging 53 in all competitions this year, to be exact. In his first Euro 2020 match, the only player on his team with less touches was his goalkeeper. He did have five shots, but it goes without saying he needs to get himself a little bit more involved if Poland want a chance at getting something out of this game.


Lastly, these sides do not have much head-to-head, competitive history. Their last competitive match was all the way back in 1959, a game which Spain won 3-0. Spain and Poland have played twice this century, with both also in favor of Spain winning by a combined score of 9-0.

Spain vs Poland Best Bet

Overall, the best bet for this match is for Poland to cover at +1.5 with odds of (-124). While I believe that Spain will win and play much better in their second Euro 2020 match, they are simply not going to dominate Poland. Even if they do get a couple of goals, I think Lewandowksi can pull one back and cover for Poland.

Pick: Poland +1.5 (-124)

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