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UEFA Nations League Matchday 6 Odds & Picks Nov 17: Spain vs Germany, Croatia vs Portugal & Switzerland vs Ukraine

John Dillon

by John Dillon in Soccer

Nov 16, 2020 · 6:58 AM PST

Timo Werner has scored nne goals in his last nine internationals for Germany.
Chelsea striker Timo Werner scored twice for Germany in their weekend defeat of Ukraine and is now hoping to fire them into the UEFA Nations League finals when they meet Spain in Seville on Tuesday. Photo from @TimoWerner (Twitter).
  • Nine fixtures across five qualifying groups kicking off at 2:45 pm ET on Tuesday
  • Germany seeks draw in Spain to reach finals while Croatia fight to avoid drop in Switzerland
  • See all odds and best bets for UEFA Nations League Matchday 6 on November 17

Europe’s Nations League group stage reaches its conclusive final fixture phase this week with nine Matchday 6 matches taking place on Tuesday.

The four-team finals will be played in October next year after the re-scheduled European Championships.

UEFA Nations League Matchday 6 Odds

Matchup Home Draw Away
France vs Sweden -157 +280 +460
Croatia vs Portugal +250 +245 +110
Spain vs Germany +143 +245 +185
Switzerland vs Ukraine -136 +270 +390
Montenegro vs Cyprus -175 +265 +600
Andorra vs Latvia +355 +215 -106
Luxembourg vs Azerbaijan +110 +200 +315
Gibraltar vs Liechtenstein +160 +200 +195
Malta vs Faroe Islands +195 +215 +155

Odds taken from Draftkings on Nov 16

Pick 1: Spain vs Germany

Germany need only a draw in Spain on Tuesday to clinch a top place finish in Group A4 after a change-over of power in the section.

The Spanish had been the front-runners for much of the competition and will claim back first place with a win this week.

But they were held to a 1-1 draw with Switzerland last Saturday while Germany came from behind to beat Ukraine 3-1.

 

That put the Germans on top of the group with nine points while Spain now have eight points.

After five rounds of matches, Germany are unbeaten with three draws and two wins – so the Draftkings price of  +245 for them to claim the necessary point in the final fixture at 2:45 pm ET in Seville looks attractive.

Spain will be determined to hit back after veteran defender Sergio Ramos missed two penalties in the draw against the Swiss.

That projection is backed up by the fact that these two teams drew 1-1 in the opening game in September in Stuttgart.

Spain will be determined to hit back after veteran defender Sergio Ramos missed two penalties in the draw against the Swiss.

It took an 80th-minute equalizer from Villarreal striker Gerard to rescue Spain after they trailed to a 26th-minute opener from Remo Freuler in Basel.

Chelsea forward Timo Werner was the hero for Germany against Ukraine in Leipzig.

They fell behind to a 12th-minute strike from Roman Yeremchuk. But Leroy Sane equalized after 23 minutes before Werner scored twice in the 33rd and 64th minutes.

In the current international break, Germany scored a 1-0 home win over the Czech Republic last mid-week while Spain drew 1-1 in Holland.

Pick: Draw +245

Pick 2: Croatia vs Portugal

Croatia will be fighting to avoid relegation from the top tier Group A section of the competition when they host Portugal in Split.

Portugal – winners of the inaugural Nations League in 2019 – cannot catch group A3 leaders France after their 1-0 defeat by the French in Lisbon on Saturday.

With a current points tally of 10, they will finish second.

Third-placed Croatia must at least match what bottom-placed Sweden achieve against France to avoid dropping into the Group B tier.

With only  one win and four defeats, fallen 2018 World Cup finalists Croatia might ordinarily be written off

So, in the search for value at the tail end of the group stage, the Draftkings offer of +250 for a Croatian win looks interesting. With the tie at +230, that is a decent proposition, too.

With only that one win and four defeats so far, fallen 2018 World Cup finalists Croatia might ordinarily be written off against the Portuguese.

But the Croatians have home advantage  – such as it is in front of empty stands – and the need to put the threat of relegation beyond doubt could inspire them.

At the same time, Portugal may now be de-motivated with no place in next year’s finals available.

Both Croatia and the Swedes have only three points heading into the final shake-down and an identical goal difference of -6.

The slight advantage here is with Croatia because they have scored seven goals while Sweden has only three.

Croatia were beaten 2-1 by Sweden last Saturday.

Portugal inflicted a 4-1 thrashing when they hosted Croatia in September.

And it does require a leap of faith to envisage a Croatian victory on Tuesday because they have lost five and drawn one of the nations’ six previous meetings.

Pick: Croatia +250

Pick 3: Switzerland vs Ukraine

Ukraine have the advantage as they battle with Switzerland to avoid relegation from Group A4.

The teams meet in the Swiss city of Lucerne with Ukraine in third place with six points and Switzerland bottom of the section with three points.

 

Although Ukraine were beaten 3-1 by Germany on Saturday, they hold a 2-1 home win over the Swiss from the opening matchday in September – and they have also beaten Spain 1-0 in this competition.

Those results and the fact that Switzerland have drawn three of their five games point towards the Draftkings offer of +270 for a tie as the best prospect here as Ukraine attempt to ensure safety from the drop.

The Swiss drew twice with Germany – 1-1 at home and 3-3 away –  before last Saturday’s 1-1 draw with Spain.

Ukraine suffered a 2-0 defeat in Poland in a friendly three days before the setback against Germany.

On the same night on November 11, Switzerland lost 2-1 in Belgium.

Before Ukraine’s Matchday 1 defeat of the Swiss, both previous meetings between the nations had ended in draws at the World Cup finals in 2006 and in a friendly in 2010.

Pick: Draw +270

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