USA vs Mexico Picks, Predictions & Best Odds for Gold Cup Final

• The USMNT and Mexico meet in the Gold Cup final in Houston at 7:00 pm ET on Sunday night
• Including extra time, the home team has won six of the last eight meetings, and drawn the other two
• See my USA vs Mexico picks, predictions, plus the best available odds for the 2025 Gold Cup final

The 2025 Gold Cup final pits CONCACAF’s two top-ranked teams against one another in Houston, TX, on Sunday night as world #16 USA hosts world #17 Mexico at NRG Stadium at 7:00 pm ET/6:00 pm CT.

Despite the match taking place on American soil, Mexico is a slight betting favorite to lift the trophy. The table below sets out the best available moneyline and total-goals odds. Under the table, find my best picks for the game.

Jump to: USA vs MEX Odds | H2H Results | USA vs MEX Picks

USMNT vs Mexico Odds – Gold Cup Final

Both teams are plus-money bets to win in regular time. The longest odds on a USA victory in 90 minutes are +230 at bet365, while the best odds on a Mexico win in regulation are +150 at bet365. The longest odds on a 90-minute draw are +200 at DraftKings. The default total goals varies between 1.5 and 2.5 depending on the sportsbook, with the juice flipping depending on the number. Most sportsbooks have 2.5 O/U as the default with heavy juice on the over (the longest is +160 at DraftKings, but FanDuel lists is at 1.5 with heavy juice on the under (+142).

The odds to lift the trophy favor the Mexicans by a narrow margin. The longest odds on El Tri are at DraftKings, where they are -135 to capture their third Gold Cup in the last four tries (and record-extending tenth title). The longest odds on the USA are at FanDuel, where the USMNT is +120 to win their second in three tries.

After a tournament-opening 3-2 win over the Dominican Republic, Mexico locked down defensively and didn’t a goal in the next four matches, which include wins over Suriname in group play (2-0), Saudi Arabia in the quarterfinals (2-0), and Honduras in the semis (1-0).

In an unlikely turn of events, defender Cesar Montes leads the team with three goals in the tournament. He had just one in his first 53 caps for Mexico. Cagey veteran Raul Jimenez has two, including the winner against Honduras in the semis.

The USA, on the other hand, kept clean sheets in their first two games (5-0 vs Trinidad & Tobago, 1-0 vs Saudi Arabia), but has conceded in the last three: a 2-1 win vs Haiti in the group stage, a 3-2 win on penalties over Costa Rica in the quarters, and a 2-1 win over Guatemala in the semis.

After failing to score in his first eight appearances with the national team. 21-year-old winger Diego Luna has three in the last two matches, including a first-half brace in the semifinal victory over Guatemala.

USA vs Mexico H2H Results & Betting Trends

Historically, Mexico has had the better of this matchup, going 34-17-24 all-time against their rivals to the north. But the recent trends are much more even, and skewed to the home team. The home side is unbeaten in the last eight matches winning four and drawing four in regular time. In extra time, the home team is 2-0 in that span.

The last meeting between the teams was a friendly in October of last year in Zapopan, with Mexico cruising to a 2-0 win, allowing just one shot on target. The last competitive match saw the USMNT win 2-0 on home soil in March 2024 during Nations League play. But both Christian Pulisic and Timothy Weah were in the lineup for that victory. Neither are on the 2025 Gold Cup squad. Indeed, the current US squad is almost entirely comprised of MLS talent, a point I’ll revisit in the next section.

USMNT vs Mexico Picks & Predictions

• Mexico clean sheet (+158) at FanDuel
• Mexico to lift the trophy (-135) at DraftKings

The American attack has been surprisingly potent in the 2025 Gold Cup, and I say “surprisingly” both because of the personnel and the results leading up to the tournament. Back in June, ESPN’s Ryan O’Hanlon ranked the USMNT’s top 15 players at each position. Neither of the top-two wingers (Pulisic, Weah) or top-two strikers (Folarin Balogun, Ricardo Pepi) are on the team.

In the semis, only three of the USMNT’s starters were from European teams. The last time the US played a competitive match against Mexico (the aforementioned 2-0 win in Nations League action), eight of the starters were from European squads. The MLS is certainly on the rise, but Opta Analyst still only ranks it ninth-best globally, behind Europe’s “Big Five” (England, Italy, Germany, Spain, France), plus Portugal and Belgium’s top flights, and Brazil’s Serie A.

Leading up to the Gold Cup, the US was absolutely embarrassed by world #20 Switzerland on home soil (4-0 loss with zero shots on target) and also fell 2-1 to world #27 Turkiye in their other pre-tournament friendly. Their last two competitive matches were 2-1 and 1-0 losses to Canada and Panama, respectively, in the Nations League playoffs (both in California).

They have been fortunate in their opponents during the Gold Cup, but that comes to an end tonight. The current iteration of the USMNT is a top-20 team on the world stage, and that’s going to be apparent against a Mexican squad that’s absolutely locked down defensively.

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