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Stanley Cup Props – Ruining the Suspense for Sharks v Pens

Sascha Paruk

by Sascha Paruk in News

Updated Jan 17, 2018 · 9:39 AM PST

San Jose defenseman Brent Burns warming up.
Brent Burns is no longer the outright favorite for the 2019 Norris Trophy as Washington's John Carlson has pulled even in the futures odds. Photo by mark6mauno (flickr).

The Stanley Cup finals are set. This year, we’re going to see a battle of one of the most privileged franchises in hockey history – the Pittsburgh Penguins – square off with a chronic underachiever that’s finally breaking through – the San Jose Sharks.

If you go back far enough, Pens fans had it pretty rough. The team only won three playoff series in its first 21 years. But when they won the race to the bottom of the league in 1984, they earned the right to draft Mario Lemieux first overall. They still missed the playoffs for a few more years after that, but Pittsburgh fans were now being treated to the greatest show on ice on a nightly basis. And it wasn’t too long before Lemieux was joined by the legendary Jaromir Jagr to form the core of a squad that won back to back Stanley Cups (1991, 1992) and put up gaudy stats.

The team faced a few more lean years at the end of the Lemieux era, but then they hit another jackpot, winning the 2005 draft lottery which put Sidney Crosby in black and yellow. Paired with Evgeni Malkin, the no. 2 overall pick from the year before, the duo has done its best Lemieux/Jagr impression ever since, leading the team to a Stanley Cup (2009), another runner-up finish (2008), and ten straight playoff appearances.

San Jose, meanwhile, has been a virtual lock to make the playoffs ever since Joe Thornton came to town in 2005. But that’s where waters have gotten real murky for the Sharks. Before this year, they’d reached three conference finals (2004, 2010, 2011) but lost all three, going a combined 3-12.

The team took the controversial step of stripping Thornton of the captaincy two years ago and handing it over to Joe Pavelski at the start of this year. Though symbolic, the move now looks prescient. Thornton is still near the top of his game, but Pavelski and 27-year-old Logan Couture (who sit one-two in playoff scoring) have been the keys to the elusive chamber that is the Cup finals.

Pavelski in particular has proven clutch. He notched the tying and winning goals in the pivotal Game 5 if the West finals, and then opened the scoring in the decisive Game 6.

But we’re not here for a history lesson, recent or ancient. We’re here to look at what lies in store for the Cup finals. Does “Little Joe” have more magic in reserve? Will Crosby cement his legacy with a second ring? Will Doc Emrick finally run out of synonyms for the word “pass”?

Eric and I break down all the odds for the best-of-seven series, which starts Monday in Steeltown.

2016 Stanley Cup Finals Props

Odds to win the Stanley Cup:

Penguins: 9/10
Sharks: 10/9

On paper, the teams look fairly even. Both have a bunch of snipers. Both have an inexperienced tender who’s nonetheless hot. Experience puts the Pens slightly ahead. The Sharks have a ton of playoff games under their collective belt, but the Pens still have key holdovers from their 2009 Cup-winning team (Crosby, Malkin, and Kris Letang, most notably). Experience counts for a lot at this stage. Home-ice advantage counts for a little.

Odds the Penguins win in …

four games: 12/1
five games: 13/2
six games: 17/4
seven games: 17/4

Odds the Sharks win in …

Thomas.fanghaenel [CC BY-SA 3.0 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0)], via Wikimedia Commons
Photo Credit: Thomas.fanghaenel
four games: 25/2
five games: 15/2
six games: 9/2
seven games: 9/2

Odds to win series MVP:

Phil Kessel: 17/3
Joe Pavelski: 6/1
Sidney Crosby: 7/1
Joe Thornton: 17/2
Logan Couture: 9/1
Matt Murray: 21/2
Kris Letang: 11/1
Brent Burns: 13/1
Evgeni Malkin: 15/1
Carl Hagelin: 18/1
Nick Bonino: 18/1
Martin Jones: 20/1
Patrick Marleau: 25/1
Patric Hornqvist: 28/1
Joel Ward: 28/1
Bryan Rust: 35/1
FIELD: 40/1

I’m as shocked as you, but there’s no denying that, if the Penguins won the Cup today, Phil “the thrill” Kessel would be their MVP. There’s still so much ground to be made up over this final series, but you know if everyone’s performance was even, the people’s choice for the award would be Crosby or Thornton. As for Malkin, he can do his best, but having won it already pretty much guarantees he won’t be receiving a second.

Odds to lead the series in goals:

Joe Pavelski: 4/1
Phil Kessel: 5/1
Sidney Crosby: 6/1
Logan Couture: 6/1
Evgeni Malkin: 8/1
Brent Burns: 10/1
Patric Hornqvist: 10/1
Joel Ward: 10/1
Carl Hagelin: 12/1
Nick Bonino: 14/1
Patrick Marleau: 14/1
Tomas Hertl: 16/1
Chris Kunitz: 16/1
Joe Thornton: 16/1
Joonas Donskoi: 20/1
Bryan Rust: 22/1
Matt Cullen: 28/1
Kris Letang: 28/1
Chris Tierney: 28/1
Conor Sheary: 40/1
Brian Dumoulin: 50/1
FIELD: 30/1

The last time Crosby was in the Cup Finals, he shrank more than George Costanza in a cold pool. He’ll be determined to bring his best on the NHL’s biggest stage this time around. But this is a stage in which any player can step up and deliver. So even though guys like Joel Ward and Nick Bonino don’t score often, they do strike in the biggest of spots.

Odds to lead the series in penalty minutes:

Kris Letang: 5/1
Roman Polak: 5/1
Brent Burns: 7/1
Trevor Daley: 7/1
Ian Cole: 8/1
Brenden Dillon: 10/1
Chris Kunitz: 10/1
Carl Hagelin: 13/1
Tommy Wingels: 13/1
Matt Nieto: 13/1
Evgeni Malkin: 16/1
Joel Ward: 18/1
Patric Hornqvist: 18/1
Nick Spaling: 20/1
FIELD: 12/1

These two teams might have the furthest thing from goon lineups the finals has ever seen. In fact, “puck over glass” will probably be the most common infraction in this series. With that being case, look to the defenseman to be most responsible for shorthanded situations.

Odds Sidney Crosby records a hat-trick in the series: 75/1

He’s got nine in 707 career games. You do the math. Or not. I already did.

Odds Sidney Crosby does not score a goal in the series: 7/2

Odds to record the first hat trick of the series:

No one: 1/8
Phil Kessel: 70/1
Joe Pavelski: 70/1
Logan Couture: 80/1
Sidney Crosby: 80/1
Evgeni Malkin: 80/1
Patric Hornqvist: 85/1
FIELD: 15/1

Odds the Stanley Cup will touch the ice during winning team’s celebration: 3/1

Over/Unders

Sidney_Crosby_2016-04-28_2
Photo Credit: Michael Miller CC BY-SA 4.0

Over/under on points for Sidney Crosby in the series: 5.5

He’s over a point-per-game player in his post-season career, but isn’t exactly en fuego this year with 15 points in 18 games.

Over/under on the number of overtime periods in the series: 1.5

Over/under on the total number of goals in the series: 30.5

Both team’s have great offenses, but these are going to be tight-checking affairs. The finals almost always are. There’s so much at stake and nerves are racked. Expect a little over five goals per game.

Over/under on the number of fights in the series: 0.5

As we alluded to above, these teams don’t have a scrapper between them. And as Joel Quenneville noted in October, you really don’t seen much fighting in the playoffs. That trend is only going to be amplified in the finals. No one wants to be in the box during the most important game of their life. They’ll be even more scared of drawing an instigator and putting their team down a man.

Over/under on the number of teeth lost on-ice in the series: 1.5

No fights doesn’t mean no Chiclets will hit the ice. Visors and mouth guards are the norm these days, but visors don’t cover your mouth, and mouthguards will only do so much if a 100-MPH slapper hits you in the jaw.

Over/under on the total number of penalty minutes in the series: 90

The Lady Bing-natured teams are combining for just over 16 per game right now. Add in the fact that the refs don’t want to be the focus of the finals, and that should go down a bit over the roughly six games we’re expecting.

Over/under on the number of minutes played by Marc Andre-Fleury in the series: 15

Over/under on the highest number of words NBC announcer Mike “Doc” Emrick will use to describe puck movement in any single game of the series: 49.5

Doc detests repetition. There’s a chance he tones it down, knowing all the ears of the hockey world will be tuned in. There’s a better chance he ramps it up, knowing all the ears of the hockey world will be tuned in.

Parlays

Odds the San Jose Sharks and Golden State Warriors win both the NHL and NBA title: 13/2

Odds the San Jose Sharks and Golden State Warriors win neither the NHL nor NBA title: 3/2

Over/under on the number of championships Northern California teams win in the five major North American leagues: 1.5

That includes the Sharks, Warriors, San Francisco Giants, Oakland Athletics, San Francisco 49ers, Oakland Raiders, and San Jose Earthquake.


(Photo credit: mark6mauno – https://www.flickr.com/photos/mark6mauno/25847285304/, CC BY-SA 2.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=48226267. Photo has been cropped.)

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