Upcoming Match-ups

US Open Men’s Singles Semifinals Odds & Betting Preview: Daniil Medvedev vs Grigor Dimitrov

David Golokhov

by David Golokhov in Tennis

Updated Apr 6, 2020 · 11:56 AM PDT

US Open
Can Daniil Medvedev get past Grigor Dimitrov in the 2019 US Open semis? Photo By Davidwboswell Photos (Wikimedia)
  • No. 5 Daniil Medvedev has won 11 straight matches
  • Both Medvedev and Grigor Dimitrov have never been past the fourth round at the US Open
  • Medvedev and Dimitrov have split their two career meetings 1-1

The 2019 US Open has been full of surprises on the men’s side as Novak Djokovic and Roger Federer have been knocked out. That means there are good opportunities for others. Two who could capitalize are No. 5 Daniil Medvedev and Grigor Dimitrov, who will meet in the semifinals.

Which of the two is the best bet in their showdown taking place on Friday, September 6, 2019 at 11:00am EST?

Medvedev vs Dimitrov US Open Odds

Player Spread Moneyline Total
Grigor Dimitrov +3 (-110) +149 40.5 (-110)
Daniil Medvedev -3 (-110) -169 40.5 (-110)

*Odds taken 09/04/19 

Medvedev Has Been Impressive

Medvedev has been on a heater not only in the 2019 US Open but throughout the entirety of the hard-court season. To date, he has the most wins on the surface. He’s won 11 straight matches as he claimed the Western & Southern Open title in Cincinnati. Prior to that, he made it to the final in the previous two hard-court events.

The one caveat here is that Medvedev is apparently hurt. He’s been dealing with a shoulder injury throughout the tournament and in post-match interviews, he’s spoken about just how close he’s been to quitting. In the quarters, he also had to receive treatment for a quad injury, which he thought he tore.

When you’re betting this match, you have to keep that in mind as it seems like Medvedev has powered through. However, he’s not 100%.

Dimitrov Ousts Federer to Get to Semis

Dimitrov is the lone unseeded player to make it to the quarters (and beyond) as every other player is in the Top 25. He’s been ranked before, though, getting up as high as No. 3 in 2017 but he’s been nothing short of a disaster in 2019. It’s definitely a surprise that he’s made it this far.

YouTube video

Dimitrov had been 12-15 on the year before the US Open. He had lost in the first round in two straight events and five of the last six. He had just one win during those six tournaments. The fact that he’s even in the semis is a complete shock – let alone with a win over Federer.

At the same time, you have to take a closer look who he’s played. He beat Andreas Seppi in the opening round, who is unseeded, then had a walkover over No. 12 Borna Coric. Then he had two consecutive wins against unseeded nobodies in the following two rounds, which meant he was quite fresh against Federer.

YouTube video

Against Federer, he was down 2-1 but Federer either ran out of gas or injured himself as he simply didn’t look himself the rest of the way. Dimitrov deserves some credit but it does feel like he’s had an easy draw.

2019 US Open Key Stats

Daniil Medvedev
Grigor Dimitrov
49-16 2019 Record 17-15
2 2019 Singles Titles 0
1 Head-To-Head Record 1
4 Sets Lost At 2019 US Open 2
1 Seeded Players Defeated At 2019 US Open 1

What’s the Best Bet?

There’s no question that Dimitrov has done well but I feel as though he’s caught a ton of breaks. He might catch another one in the semis as Medvedev is not 100%.

YouTube video

At the same time, I have a hard time betting Dimitrov knowing his track record this season and knowing that he’s going up against the hottest hard court player on the men’s side. If Medvedev was a sizable favorite at -500 or even -300, I’d consider taking a flier on Dimitrov. At -169, it makes no sense to back Dimitrov knowing the two players’ pedigrees.

Author Image