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WTA Elite Trophy Semifinals Odds & Pick: Muchova vs Sabalenka

Robert Duff

by Robert Duff in Tennis

Updated Apr 23, 2020 · 1:06 PM PDT

Alryna Sabalenka hits a return
Oddsmakers list Aryna Sabalenka as the -175 chalk to defeat Karolina Muchova in their WTA Elite Trophy semifinal in Zhuhai, China. (Wiki Commons) [CC License]
  • Sportsbooks list Aryna Sabalenka as the -175 chalk to defeat Karolina Muchova in their WTA Elite Trophy semifinal in Zhuhai, China
  • Three of Sabalenka’s four career WTA singles titles have come in China. She’s 31-7 all-time on Chinese soil
  • Muchova, the 11 seed, beat #2 seed Sofia Kenin to reach the semifinals

China certainly seems to suit Aryna Sabalenka’s game. Karolina Muchova has also enjoyed her share of success while playing in Asia.

So perhaps no one should be surprised to see these two players squaring off in the semfinals of the WTA Elite Trophy.

Fourth-seeded Sabalenka of Belarus will clash with #11 seed Muchova of the Czech Republic in one of two semifinals. Their match goes at 4:30 am EST on Saturday. The victor will face the winner of the Kiki Bertens-SaiSai Zheng semifinal in Sunday’s final.

Sportsbooks are laying odds that player will be Sabalenka. The sportsbook has established the world #14 player in the WTA rankings as the -175 favorite to defeat Muchova, ranked #26 by the WTA.

Sabalenka vs Muchova Odds

Player Moneyline Spread Total
Aryna Sabalenka -175 N/A Over 21.0 (-110)
Karolina Muchova +155 N/A Under 21.0 (-110)

All odds taken October 25, 2019

This will be the first meeting on the tennis court between Sabalenka and Muchova.

China is Sabalenka’s Aryna

There’s just something about the Far East that Sabalenka finds to be far out.

The Belarussian player owns four victories on the WTA Tour. Three of them were earned in China.

YouTube video

Sabalenka downed American Alison Riske 6-3, 3-6, 6-1 last month to defend her title at the Wuhan Open. She defeated Bertens 6-1, 7-6(9) in the Round of 16 at the tournament.

She also won the Shenzen Open this year. Sabalenka was a losing finalist in the 2017 Tianjin Open. Her overall career win-loss record on Chinese soil in singles competition is 31-7.

Sabalenka also teamed with Elise Mertens to win the doubles title in Taipei in 2015.

Doubles Down

Longtime doubles partners Sabalenka and Muchova, currently ranked #1 in the world, clashed in the WTA Elite Trophy with first place in the Rose Group and a spot in the semifinals on the line. Sabalenka got the decision, grinding out a 6-4, 3-6, 7-5 victory.

YouTube video

Fittingly, the pair have now split four singles meetings 2-2. Mertens and Sabalenka will enter next week’s WTA Finals in Shenzen, China as the top-seeded doubles team. They were US Open doubles champions this year.

Sabalenka won 73-percent of her first service points.. But she also committed 10 double faults during the match, compared to one by Mertens.

It’s Rarely the One

This tournament was first held in 2015. It was won by #1 seed Venus Williams. Since then, the WTA Elite Trophy has proven to be a graveyard for top-seeded players.

Ninth-seeded Ashleigh Barty won last year. The title went to #7 seed Julia Gorges in 2017 and #3 seed Petra Kvitova in 2016.

This doesn’t bode well for #1 seed Bertens. Perhaps that explains why oddsmakers list Sabalenka as the +150 favorite to win the WTA Elite Trophy.

2019 WTA Elite Trophy Odds

Player Odds
Aryna Sabalenka +150
Kiki Bertens +175
Karolina Muchova +350
SaiSai Zheng +600

Bertens is the +175 second choice in the betting line.

Muchova Rolling

It’s been a breakthrough season for Muchova on the WTA Tour. Her current ranking is the best she’s ever held on the tour. Muchova opened the year ranked #141. She jumped nine spots in the rankings over the past week.

YouTube video

Lately, she’s been making quite the racket on tour. Muchova also reached the semifinals in her last tournament stop in Moscow. She won her first WTA tournament last month in Seoul, South Korea.

Muchova also reached the quarterfinals at Wimbledon this year, her best performance in a Grand Slam event. She defeated American Sofia Kenin, the #2 seed, 6-4, 4-6, 6-3 to garner a place in the semifinals.

Sabalenka the One to Beat

Both of these players are on top of their games. Muchova has won 10 of her last 12 matches. Sabalenka is 11-2 in her last 13 matches.

Sabalenka vs Muchova

Aryna Sabalenka
Karolina Muchova
14 WTA Ranking 26
4 Tournament Wins 1
37-13 Overall Win-Loss 34-21
25-8 Hard-Court Win-Loss 25-11
8-2 Last 10 Matches 8-2
0-0 Head to Head 0-0

Sabalenka’s success in China will continue in this match and give her a confident edge in what should be a very close, hard-fought battle.

Pick: Aryna Sabalenka (-175)

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