French Open Men’s Singles Odds & Preview: Can Rafael Nadal Win No. 14?
- As usual, 13-time champion Rafael Nadal is the heavy favorite to win the French Open
- In an upset, Novak Djokovic is not right behind him; instead, it’s No. 5 seed Stefanos Tsitsipas
- Roger Federer returns for the first time since 2019 – and the “Big 3″are all in the same half.
Until such time as Rafael Nadal does not win the French Open men’s singles title, he’s likely to always be the favorite to keep adding to the record total of “Coupes des Mousquetaires” he keeps in the museum at his academy in Mallorca.
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French Open Men’s Singles Odds
| Seed | Player | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| [3] | Rafael Nadal (ESP) | -125 |
| [5] | Stefanos Tsitsipas (GRE) | +450 |
| [1] | Novak Djokovic (SRB) | +500 |
| [6] | Alexander Zverev (GER) | +1100 |
| [4] | Dominic Thiem (AUT) | +1200 |
| [7] | Andrey Rublev (RUS) | +4000 |
| [15] | Casper Ruud (NOR) | +4000 |
| [18] | Jannik Sinner (ITA) | +4000 |
| [24] | Aslan Karatsev (RUS) | +5000 |
| [9] | Matteo Berrettini (ITA) | +6600 |
| [2] | Daniil Medvedev (RUS) | +6600 |
| [8] | Roger Federer (SUI) | +7500 |
| [12] | Pablo Carreño Busta (ESP) | +10000 |
| [22] | Cristian Garin (CHI) | +15000 |
| [11] | Roberto Bautista Agut (ESP) | +20000 |
| [14] | Gaël Monfils (FRA) | +50000 |
| [Q] | Carlos Alcarez (ESP) | +70000 |
Odds as of May 28 at DraftKings
Unfortunately for Nadal, Novak Djokovic and the tournament, the Mallorcan wasn’t able to get back to the No. 2 spot in the rankings before Paris.
As the No. 3 seed, he had a 50-percent chance of landing in Djokovic’s half of the draw. And the draw gods “cooperated” in making that potential semifinal a de facto final.
No. 2 seed Daniil Medvedev, whose virulent aversion to anything involving red clay is infamous, is in the other half. Which makes for a fairly unbalanced draw.
Federer is Back – in Djokovic’s Quarter
The other big question before Thursday’s draw was where former No. 1 Roger Federer would end up, as the No. 8 seed.
He could have had Nadal, Thiem or Medvedev in his section for a potential quarterfinal.
It ended up being Djokovic.
That, of course, assumes Federer will get there.
He said in Geneva last week that he knew he wasn’t going to win the tournament. But he wanted to get some match play in before his main focuses – grass, and the Olympics.
Pleasure to have you back, @rogerfederer 🙌#RolandGarros pic.twitter.com/Fz7La44Wfa
— Roland-Garros (@rolandgarros) May 27, 2021
Federer gets qualifier Denis Istomin in the first round (7-0 Federer; first meeting on clay).
His first potential seed would be No. 30 Taylor Fritz in the third round (2-0 Federer; first meeting on clay).
Assuming he has the stamina to play best-of-five sets, he should at least make it that far.
French Open Men’s Singles Contenders – Best Previous Results
| Player | Main-Draw Appearances | Career W/L | Best Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rafael Nadal | 15 | 100-2 | Champion (13X) |
| Stefanos Tsitsipas | 4 | 9-4 | Semifinals (2020) |
| Novak Djokovic | 16 | 74-15 | Champion (2016) |
| Alexander Zverev | 5 | 13-5 | QFs (2018-19) |
| Dominic Thiem | 7 | 28-7 | Finals (2018-19 |
| Andrey Rublev | 2 | 4-2 | QFs (2020) |
| Casper Ruud | 3 | 5-3 | R32 (2019-20) |
| Roger Federer | 18 | 70-17 | Champion (2009) |
Potential First-Round Upsets
[13] David Goffin (+107) vs. Lorenzo Musetti (-132)
Musetti, a 19-year-old Italian, is another talented player to come out of that country and his clay season has shown that he talent and charisma to burn, and is getting better every week.
Meanwhile, Goffin, whose best career efforts in Paris have been stopped in the fourth round, has had flashes this year – Monte Carlo and Lyon. But he has lost early in his last three tournaments to players ranked outside the top 50.
Before Rome, Lorenzo Musetti had 0 top 100 wins. In just 12 days, he defeated Wawrinka, Nishikori, Seppi, Harris, Monteiro, and Tiafoe. The 2019 Australian Open junior champion is coming. Musetti clinching his first Challenger title, remember the moment: pic.twitter.com/9A5mPeiUUF
— Damian Kust (@damiankust) September 26, 2020
The lower-ranked player is the favorite in this one. But Musetti has only played one best-of-five match in his entire career so far (and he lost it in three quick sets). Pick Goffin.
[17] Milos Raonic (-137) vs. Thiago Monteiro (+110)
The 30-year-old Canadian is making his first trip to Roland Garros since he lost 8-6 in the fifth set to Pablo Carreño Busta in the fourth round, all the way back in 2017. He hasn’t even played since Miami, more than two months ago and has played just four events this year.
Raonic is focused on the grass-court season, unfortunately, cut short a week because the French Open was pushed back. He has been nursing an ankle injury and likely is not really ready to go five sets on clay. The Brazilian Monteiro, a lefty ranked No. 79 (near his career-high), is a capable foe on clay.
[2] Daniil Medvedev (-200) vs. Alexander Bublik (+160)
Bublik is an inconsistent sort. But he defeated Fucsovics, Shapovalov and Karatsev on his way to the Madrid quarterfinals earlier this month.
So he’s capable of pulling off the upset, especially with some help from his opponent.
Medvedev could angst himself right out of the tournament in the first round if he gets down early. He has played the French Open men’s singles four times – and lost in the first round four times (three of those to Frenchmen).
Best Bet: Rafael Nadal (-125)
Longer shot: Dominic Thiem (+1200)
Stephanie gets the straight dope from the tennis insiders. On court, she has represented her country internationally. A BA in journalism led to years on the MLB beat and a decade covering tennis globally. She's written for Postmedia, the Guardian, the New York Times and also publishes OpenCourt.ca.
