Alcaraz vs Djokovic Picks, Predictions & Best Bets (Aus. Open Final)

• #1 Carlos Alcaraz is a -321 favorite over #4 Novak Djokovic in the Australian Open Final on Sunday morning
• Alcaraz needs a win to secure the career Grand Slam, while Djokovic is seeking his 11th Aussie Open title
• See my Alcaraz vs Djokovic picks, predictions and best bets below

It seems like online sportsbooks learned a very valuable lesson on Friday. Never underestimate Novak Djokovic. The 24-time Grand Slam champion cashed as a +810 underdog in the semifinal of the Australian Open versus #2 Jannik Sinner, prompting oddsmakers to drastically shorten Djokovic’s underdog status in the final versus World No. 1 Carlos Alcaraz.

The Spaniard will take center court as a -310 favorite, giving him an implied probability of 75.6% to take down Djoker. Like Djokovic, Alcaraz is fresh off a 5-set marathon in the semis, but I’m betting his 22-year-old body will recover much quicker than his 38-year-old counterpart.

The action is set to get underway at 3:30 am ET Sunday morning, with live coverage available on ESPN.

Here are my Alcaraz vs Djokovic picks and predictions, plus my best bets for the Australian Open Final.

Alcaraz vs Djokovic Picks & Predictions

• Alcaraz -1.5 Sets (-136 at FanDuel)

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Alcaraz is now just one victory away from becoming the youngest player ever to complete the career Grand Slam. The six-time Major winner was also the youngest player ever to earn World No. 1 status, and is seeking his third Grand Slam victory in his last four Majors.

The Spaniard overcame severe cramping in the semis to oust #3 Alexander Zverev, in a match that will go down as one of the best of all-time. Once he shook off his cramping issues in the fifth set, Alcaraz showed off his ridiculous conditioning, moving at a blazing speed with extreme velocity and precision even after 5+ hours on court.

I expect he’ll be able to recover much quicker than Djokovic ahead of Sunday’s final, which will allow him to come roaring out of the gate and build a healthy lead.

It’s never smart to count out the Djoker, but let’s not forget how fortunate he is just to be here. Djokovic got a bye in the Fourth Round and was down 2 sets to none in the quarters before his opponent withdrew. He was extremely motivated to silence his doubters in his semifinal match, but his recipe for beating Sinner is not repeatable versus Alcaraz.

Alcaraz vs Djokovic Last 5 H2H Results

Djokovic saved 16 of 18 break points in that match to steal a victory and keep his quest for an 11th Aussie Open title alive. Yes, his grit and mental toughness are legendary, but we can’t expect him to knock off the #2 and #1 ranked players in back-to-back matches, given what he just went through. Djoker mustered little resistance to Sinner’s serve for most of their semifinal clash, and now has to face Alcaraz, who has a higher first serve percentage than the Italian, and a better winning percentage on opponent first serves.

I wouldn’t want to bet Alcaraz to sweep Djokovic, as Djoker could easily summon the strength to steal a set. Anything more than that however is too big of an ask, which leads me to bet the Spaniard -1.5 sets.

Alcaraz vs Djokovic Best Bets

• Carlos Alcaraz More Aces thans Novak Djokovic (-150 at DraftKings)

Djokovic was out-aced 26-12 in the semis, and I’m betting Alcaraz can win the aces battle on Sunday. The Spaniard has recorded more aces than all but one of his six opponents so far, and has held three of them to 4 aces or less. His court coverage and speed on the return are legendary already, making him one of the toughest players to sneak a serve past.

Don’t forget Djokovic is dealing with neck and shoulder issues, which definitely affect the pop on his serve. At this point in his career, Djokovic is focused more on placement than power, which drastically reduces how many aces he racks up.