Alcaraz vs Musetti Odds, Picks & Predictions for French Open Semifinal

• Carlos Alcaraz is a massive -650 moneyline favorite over Lorenzo Musetti in the French Open semifinal on Friday
• The defending champ owns the shortest odds to win tournament at -110
• Keep reading for the Alcaraz vs Musetti odds, plus picks and predictions for the French Open semifinal

Defending champion Carlos Alcaraz is back in a familiar position at the French Open. One win away from another Grand Slam Final. Alcaraz breezed through his quarterfinal matchup with American Tommy Paul, and online sportsbooks expect another cakewalk in the semis against Italian Lorenzo Musetti. Despite what the odds suggest, I’m predicting Musetti gives Alcaraz all he can handle when the two meet on Friday.

The action will take place from Court Philippe-Chatrier in Paris, France, with TBS/truTV/TNT and Max providing the broadcast coverage.

Carlos Alcaraz vs Lorenzo Musetti

Alcaraz is currently a -650 moneyline favorite and is laying 6.5 games on the spread. Musetti comes back as a +475 underdog, while the total sits at 34.5 games. The ladder market is the one we’re going to be targeting, as Musetti has more than enough game to push this match to 4+ sets.

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Alcaraz vs Musetti Picks and Predictions

• Over 34.5 Games (-120)

Let’s start with the defending champ. He dropped just five games in the quarterfinal, losing only 7 of 55 service points. It was Alcaraz’s second most lopsided win ever at a Grand Slam, and it came against a top-five returner on Tour. The Spaniard didn’t miss a shot all day, and becomes the first reigning champ to make it back to the final four at Roland Garros since 2021.

Alcaraz improved to 20-1 on clay this season, and leads all men with 35 wins and three trophies. Before we get too excited about the result, let’s not overlook the following. Paul was surely fatigued after playing multiple five-set marathon matches earlier in the tournament. He was also dealing with a leg injury that prevented him from running, serving or hitting ground strokes at his regular speed.

Credit Alcaraz for taking advantage of the situation, but life won’t be nearly as easy versus Musetti. Don’t forget, Alcaraz has looked shaky at times this tournament, dropping sets to three different opponents who are all significantly less talented that his semifinal foe. He’s still the rightful favorite in the French Open odds, but don’t expect another straight sets victory on Friday.

Alcaraz vs Musetti H2H – Last 5 Results

That’s because Musetti is playing as well as anyone on Tour these days. He’s also a clay court specialist, having played his entire life on the red dirt. Musetti has now made the semis in the four biggest clay court events of the year, accomplishing the feat in Monte-Carlo, Madrid and Rome, in addition to Roland Garros. He lost in the Monte-Carlo final to Alcaraz, but still took a set off him despite being injured.

The Italian has the game to punch back against Alcaraz’s powerful serve, ranking top-10 in break point conversions. He plays excellent defensive tennis, continuously getting the ball back in play forcing his opponent to hit extra shots. After a pair of straight sets wins in Rounds 1 and 2, Musetti has started slowly in his last three matches, before pouring it on.

He smacked 44 winners en route to a 4-set quarterfinal win over Frances Tiafoe, while he dropped only 5 games in the final two sets of his Fourth Round win over 10th seed Holger Rune. He’s 13-4 all-time at Roland Garros, with his only losses coming to Novak Djkovic (three times) and Alcaraz back in 2023.

Speaking of their head-to-head history, it may look lopsided, but Musetti is 1-2 lifetime versus Alcaraz on clay. He’s playing the best tennis of his life and is a top-5 player on this surface. I’m betting he showcases that upside in the semis, pushing Alcaraz past the 34.5 game total.