Alcaraz vs Khachanov Prediction, Picks & Best Odds for Doha Quarterfinals (Feb 19)

World No. 1 Carlos Alcaraz continues his relentless pursuit of another singles title as he meets 17th-ranked Karen Khachanov in the quarterfinals of ATP Doha on Feb 19. The pair are tentatively scheduled to start at 11:30 am ET on Centre Court.

The Spaniard enters this matchup as a prohibitively heavy favorite, boasting a pristine 5-0 head-to-head record against Khachanov and leading the ATP Singles Race with 2,000 points. While Khachanov has maintained a top-20 ranking through consistent play, he faces a statistical mountain against Alcaraz.

For bettors, the primary challenge lies not in picking a winner, but in dissecting the spread and total markets to find value where the books may have overcorrected for Alcaraz’s dominance. Below, find the latest Alcaraz vs Khachanov odds, plus my picks and prediction.

Alcaraz vs Khachanov Odds

The betting board for this quarterfinal reflects the vast disparity in current form and historical dominance between the two competitors. Alcaraz is -1600 to win and listed at -5.5 on the game spread. Khachanov comes back as a +900 underdog to pick up his first career win against the Spaniard. The total-games line is 19.5 with the over favored at -110 and the under at a heavily-juiced -125.

Odds from bet365 at 9:49 am ET, Feb 19. Learn how to bet on sports in Florida.

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Line Movement

The market has moved swiftly to insulate against an Alcaraz victory. Opening at -1205, Alcaraz’s moneyline shortened to -1600, translating to an implied win probability of roughly 94.16%. Conversely, Khachanov has drifted from +700 to +900, suggesting limited handle backing the underdog.

After adjusting for the vig (4.16%), the true win probability for Alcaraz sits at approximately 90.4%, while Khachanov hovers around 9.6%. The aggressive movement on the game spread – from -4.5 to -5.5 – alongside the total dropping from 20.5 to 19.5, indicates that sharps and books alike are anticipating a highly efficient, straight-sets performance from the World No. 1.

Alcaraz vs Khachanov Head-to-Head History

Alcaraz holds a 5-0 straight-up record against Khachanov but the last three have been much more competitive than the first two.

Despite the clean H2H record, the underlying metrics suggest Khachanov is not merely a passenger in these matchups. In their May 2025 clash at ATP Rome, Khachanov actually won the first set and more points throughout the match, securing 98 points to Alcaraz’s 95, despite losing in three sets. This statistical anomaly highlights Khachanov’s ability to grind out service games and extend sets.

However, Alcaraz’s edge lies in high-leverage moments. In that same Rome match, he converted 50% of his break points (5/10), showcasing a clinical efficiency that Khachanov (4/9 on break points) could not match. In Beijing, on a hard court similar to Doha, Alcaraz was more dominant, covering the spread with a six-game margin. Khachanov’s path to covering the +5.5 relies entirely on his first-serve percentage preventing Alcaraz from generating clustered break opportunities.

Carlos Alcaraz vs Karen Khachanov Prediction & Pick

Based on the breakpoint conversion rates, service-hold projections, and recent H2H history, the most-actionable play for this quarterfinal is a bet on the over.

Best Bet: Total Games Over 19.5 (-110) at bet365

The total has been bet down to 19.5, creating value on the over, which is priced at just -110. Khachanov forced Alcaraz to work for his victories in Rome 2025, Beijing 2024, and Madrid 2023, their last three meetings. In Beijing and Madrid, the match total hit 20 games exactly, narrowly clearing this number. Their last meeting in Rome soared to 30 games thanks to the Russian taking the first set.

Furthermore, Khachanov’s performance in Rome – winning the total points metric – proves he can disrupt Alcaraz’s rhythm. Even in a straight-sets loss, a scoreline of 6-4, 6-4 lands on 20 games. Khachanov’s heavy serve is a reliable asset on this surface; he simply needs to hold serve four times per set to keep this bet alive.