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Aryna Sabalenka vs Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova Odds & Prediction – WTA Madrid Open Semifinals

Hayley Graham

by Hayley Graham in Tennis

May 5, 2021 · 2:37 PM PDT

Anastasia Paulyuchenkova hitting a backhand return during a clay court tennis match.
Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova of Russia returns the ball to Karolina Pliskova of the Czech Republic during their match at the Madrid Open tennis tournament in Madrid, Spain, Sunday, May 2, 2021. (AP Photo/Paul White)
  • Aryna Sabalenka and Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova will meet each other in the semifinal of the Madrid Open on Thursday, May 6th
  • This will only be the second time these two players have gone head-to-head in a singles match
  • See below for odds and our best bet analysis for this semifinal match

Fifth seed Aryna Sabalenka will take on unseeded Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova in the second semifinal at the Madrid Open on Thursday, May 6th. The players are scheduled to take to the court at 2:30 PM ET.

Sabalenka won her quarterfinal match after her opponent retired in the second set due to injury, and Paulyuchenkova was able to win two tiebreaks to earn her spot in the final four. The winner here will take on either No. 1 seed Ashleigh Barty or Paula Badosa in the finals.

Sabalenka vs Pavlyuchenkova Madrid Open Semifinal Odds

Player Spread at DraftKings Moneyline Total
[5] Aryna Sabalenka -5.5 (+110) -480 Ov 19.5 (-120)
Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova +5.5 (-136) +370 Un 19.5 (-105)

Odds as of May 5th.

Smooth Sailing for Sabalenka

The now 23-year old finds herself earning her spot in the final four on her birthday after her quarterfinal opponent Elise Mertens withdrew from the match at 6-1, 4-0. Sabalenka continues to be very dominate this clay court season, following up her finals appearance in Stuttgart with not dropping a set, and only losing 13 games over her four matches this tournament.

Mertens and Sabalenka had faced each other six times previously, with Sabalenka holding a 4-2 head-to-head record, but Mertens recording the win in their only clay court match. Unfortunately injury ended this match early, but Sabalenka did have complete control early on. Mertens gave her some trouble early on by mixing in different shots, but once she got a handle of what her opponent was trying to do, she came out more aggressive, and fought with more power.

Sabalenka will now look to continue her success on clay and reach her third final of the season, but she’ll have to get through Pavlyuchenkova. The two have only faced each other in a singles match once before, back in 2019 in Toronto.

Pavlyuchenkova’s Career-Best Showing in Madrid

With her win over Karolina Muchova, Pavlyuchenkova has earned her career-best result at the Madrid Open as she booked her spot in the semifinals. The Russian now holds a 2-0 record against Muchova after winning 7-6(4), 7-6(2).

In her quarterfinal match, Pavlyuchenkova was broken four times, but converted all four of her break points while recording 29 winners. Muchova only managed 17 winners, and despite breaking her opponent four times, she was unable to break her the seven other times, only going 4/11.

After winning the first set the 29-year old found herself down 1-4 in the second just like in her previous match. But she managed to comeback and finish Muchova off in the tiebreak.

Pavlyuchenkova didn’t have have the best start to the season, but has since be able to turn it around here in Madrid. She’s eliminated four Top 25 players, and has improved her record on the year from 5-8 to 9-8.

Head-to-Head & Best Bet

Again, there’s not much to go off of from previous matches between these two players. Their only match came back in 2019 in Toronto where Pavlyuchenkova won 3-6, 6-3, 5-7. Despite the tournament the Russian is having, it’s worth remembering that Sabalenka has been really consistent this year, with multiple quarterfinal and final appearances.

Sabalenka vs Pavlyuchenkova Head-to-Head Odds


7 WTA Standing 41
23 Age 29
9 Career Titles 12
245/126 Career W/L 433/301
1 YTD Titles 0
18/6 YTD W/L 5/8
0 Head-to-Head Wins 1

At this point in the tournament, a big factor can be fatigue. And unlike Pavlyuchenkova’s previous match against Muchova where they were both coming off marathon wins, Pavlyuchenkova has spent significantly more time on the court this tournament than Sabalenka.

This year specifically, and over the course of the tournament, we’ve really seen Sabalenka hone in on her power and become more aggressive. She’s been serving well, and her groundstrokes are more strong and precise. I do think that with the fewer hours she’s spent on the court this tournament will give her a big enough edge to earn her spot in the finals.

The Pick: Sabalenka (-480); 2-0 (-159)

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