Aryna Sabalenka vs Paula Badosa Odds & Prediction – WTA Finals Group Stage
By Stephanie Myles in Tennis
Published:
- Two WTA Finals rookies make their debut Wednesday in Guadalajara (8:30 pm ET)
- World No. 2 Aryna Sabalenka is the No. 1 seed in the event, in the absence of world No. 1 Ashleigh Barty
- Read on for analysis, match breakdown and predictions
It’s not often that the No. 1 seed at the WTA Tour Finals is a first-time participant in the event.
But Aryna Sabalenka has had quite a 2021. She began the year at No. 10 and comes into Guadalajara as No. 2 – even without having made a Grand Slam final.
She did, however, make the semis at the last two – Wimbledon and the US Open – without ever having gone past the fourth round at a major before in her career.
Aryna Sabalenka vs Paula Badosa Odds
| Player | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| {1] Aryna Sabalenka (BLR) | -2.5 (-120) | -170 | O 21.5 (-120) |
| {7} Paula Badosa (ESP) | +2.5 (-115) | +130 | U 21.5 (-120) |
Odds as of Nov. 10 at DraftKings
Badosa More of a Late Bloomer
For Badosa, six months older, the breakthrough has come a little later. She was far more celebrated as a “can’t miss” prodigy after winning the junior French Open back in 2015.
It took a while. Ranked No. 70 at the start of 2021, she contracted COVID-19 on one of the charter flights to Melbourne before the Australian Open. Badosa and her then-coach, Javier Marti, had to spend two weeks in a medical hotel.
It meant little practice or training before the first Grand Slam of the season. Not surprisingly, she lost in the first round.
But things got better. Much better. She went 17-3 during the clay-court season. And even though she was managing a shoulder issue throughout the summer, she turned up at Indian Wells and was the surprise champion there. She went from No. 27 to No. 13 on the strength of that. But she comes into the WTA Finals not having played since then – over a month.
Sabalenka Also Contracted COVID
At the bookend of the season, Sabalenka also caught the coronavirus.
She tested positive upon arrival at Indian Wells and had to quarantine and miss the tournament.
So the Belarussian is even less match-tough than her opponent. She has played just two matches since making the US Open semifinals in September.
Aryna Sabalenka vs Paula Badosa Head-to-Head
| 23 (May 4, 1998) | Age | 23 (Nov. 14, 1997) |
| Minsk, Belarus | Birthplace | New York City, NY |
| 5-11 | Height | 5-11 |
| 10 | Career WTA Singles Titles | 9 |
| 0 | Career Grand Slam Titles | 0 |
| No. 2 (Aug. 22, 2021) | Career High Ranking | No. 10 (Nov. 7, 2021) |
| No. 2 | Current Ranking | No. 10 |
| $9,493,590 | Career Prize Money | $3,165,520 |
| 44-16 | 2021 Won/Loss record | 41-15 |
| 0 | Career Head to Head | 1 |
More Inconsistent Sabalenka at a Disadvantage
Both Sabalenka and Badosa are big servers and hard, flat hitters of the ball.
But while the Belarussian has shown that she can play incredible tennis, she can turn around on a dime and litter the court with errors.
She likely is going to find the thin air and altitude this week a tougher challenge, because her margins are smaller.
Paula Badosa was ranked #71 in April and is now in the WTA Finals. What a story! Her results since April are outstanding:
-> Charleston 1 SF's
-> Madrid SF's
-> Belgrade 🏆
-> Roland Garros QF's
-> Wimbledon R16 (!)
-> Olympics QF's
-> Cincinnati QF's
-> Indian Wells 🏆 https://t.co/Qp3uDUWYDw— Ross (@RossShinberg) October 27, 2021
Ultimately, the winner will be the most consistent one on the day.
Aryna Sabalenka vs Paula Badosa Match History
| Year | Tournament | Surface | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | Cincinnati (R32) | Outdoor Hard | 5-7, 6-2, 7-6 (4) | Badosa |
Sabalenka the Favorite, But Not With the Crowd
There’s no advantage experience in this one.
But the location will give Badosa a leg up in terms of the crowd support, purely on the common language. If the shoulder is still bothering her, that will help energize her.
How World No.2 Aryna Sabalenka paired her power with breakthrough consistency to achieve a major breakthrough and qualify for her 1st @WTA Finals.
Sabalenka’s Road to Guadalajara: https://t.co/jArySfXvrK#AKRONWTAFinals pic.twitter.com/BjaIgvNQSl
— WTA Insider (@WTA_insider) November 5, 2021
That’s no small thing. And with Sabalenka being the type of player who allows external … demons to get into her head and affect her game, it could make the difference in a close match.
Badosa Wins Only Previous Meeting
The only meeting between the two came in Cincinnati, just before the US Open. It was arguably the biggest victory of Badosa’s career – at least by ranking.
They had 17 double faults between them in that match (Sabalenka has 12). So if there were a prop for that, at altitude, it’d be a great bet.
There also were 11 breaks of serve. So taking +6.5 breaks for the match (at +100) is worth a shot.
Given how even this all seems to be, the best bet is that it’s going to last a while.
Best Bet: Over 2.5 sets (+145)
Sports Writer
Stephanie gets the straight dope from the tennis insiders. On court, she has represented her country internationally. A BA in journalism led to years on the MLB beat and a decade covering tennis globally. She's written for Postmedia, the Guardian, the New York Times and also publishes OpenCourt.ca.
